Ncc Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 16/12/2016 22:21

Phil Oakley at Sharescope did a write up on NCC today, highlighted poor cash flow and ROCE, here's a snippet:

There was a sharp increase in operating profit in 2016, but operating cash flow has fallen for two consecutive years and is at a similar level to 2013. I think it’s entirely reasonable to suggest that NCC has a lot to do to improve its cash flow performance.

The other key sign that all is not well with NCC is that ROCE is on a downwards trend and that CROCI is poor. Following two big acquisitions in the last two years, I think that ROCE could fall further. Half year results released this week show very little profit growth, despite strong sales growth, and a sharp fall in profit margins.

I think there’s a good chance that consensus profit forecasts will come down for 2017 and 2018. N+1 Singer updated its profit forecasts on 14th December and expects EPS of 9.8p for 2018, rising to 11.8p in 2018. That 2018 number looks quite challenging even with the help of acquisitions.

[smokybenchod] 16/12/2016 21:51

just found it - excellent!

[smokybenchod] 16/12/2016 21:50

im so tired of this clown - wish there was an ignore button on here

[dontay] 16/12/2016 21:03

Prior fl yr guidance of around £54m was reduced to £49m in October. Now further reduced by another £3-5m. Now they say FOXIt will not become earnings enhancing till 2018. Why? What does FOXIt actually do? They said that despite the loss of the three contracts there would be NO impact on this year results and that the problems the losses caused would be rectified in H2. That has now changed! Now they are not going to bother taking any action to address the poor margin. Why not? The fear has to be... they CANNOT rectify the issues! IMO that's probably because the only way to reduce costs on a business like this is to close down some operations and reduce staff levels! That would mean admitting there has been some serious errors made with some of the recent acquisitions and IMO that is the reason for not giving the reason behind the CFO's resignation from the bod with "immediate effect" last July... he was relieved of his duties!

[shalder] 16/12/2016 18:36

Anybody else here think that one of the processes under way is that funds with a remit limited to FTSE350 stocks, plus those with restrictions on investments in non-350 stocks, are having to bail out or reduce holdings, and that for window dressing purposes they are accelerating this process so that their end-year portfolio disclosure will show zero exposure? If this is what is driving the daily share price decline, it may not have much further to run.

[markth] 16/12/2016 16:14

There's been ONE profit warning, which was notified in Oct and quantified last week. I don't see any spin in the most recent announcement. I do see directors filling their boots with cheap stock, and a reaffirmation from management that the future looks assured. As to accounting problems, there isn't any news to that effect that I've seen, in any case no accountant can realistically foresee contract contract cancellations. Finally, there's absolutely no sign or mention that the divvie is at risk.

[dontay] 16/12/2016 15:21

Could go way below 170! Canaccord still have it as a sell and still concerned about dwindling cash. There have only been two out of the usual three profit warnings so far. This latest RNS isn't good enough, IMO it's almost certain there will be another one... and still no sign of a new FD appointment. They have put a spln on the latest situation, which is a seriously different situation to what they said in October... in reality they have left investors with very little visibility indeed... and most will have realised this latest effort simply isn't good enough.This stock could drop down... even below 150p until the BOD come clean and provide some proper visibility on what they intend to do to improve the obvious accounting problems and a continuing poor bottom line. The market they play in is fine... but can they make a profit out of it? Although manageable, debt continues to increase, cash is on a two year decline and continues to drop, next step in the profit warning process may be cancellation of the dividend if they can't sort out the underlying causes of poor profits!

[blueball] 16/12/2016 13:50

Slowly forming a bottom at 170p.

[tsmith2] 16/12/2016 13:41

Looks like aviva are continuing to dump

[salpara111] 15/12/2016 14:36

Well, there is a support level at 170, having said that, now that they are out of the FTSE 250 there will be little institutional support so it may even struggle to hold that line.

[igoe104] 15/12/2016 14:24

Aviva dumping as was my hunch.

Could be a lot more overhang to clear yet, they must have lost millions selling at this level.

[staylow1] 15/12/2016 13:12

There's a write up in the new shares mag. Alludes to being over optimistic on the expected profits. Still rates it in the positive side.

[blueball] 15/12/2016 12:58

This is falling to 170p in the short term.

[mazarin] 15/12/2016 11:44

Yahoo reveals the world's biggest hack, such news should be positive for NCC, not today it seems.

[igoe104] 14/12/2016 15:16

Biba teams with NCC Group for software house investigation.

[smokybenchod] 13/12/2016 20:02

all i want to know is if blueball got in at 171.5 today or is he still waiting for his 170. either way good call blueball - you may still get your 170 lol
yeh im long here as well. imo this will either be taken over, be £4-5 a share in 5 years, or both. Any of these options will do me just fine. dyor

[markth] 13/12/2016 19:44

Go ahead and short it then. I'm staying long, 200p by New Year.

[dontay] 13/12/2016 18:43

So prior guidance was in fact £54m. After the contract losses it was given as £49m. Now it's predicted to be between £45.5 and £47.5m. Profit warnings almost ALWAYS come in threes! As was a virtual nailed on certainty we have now had the second one. Are we going to get the third? They say they haven't suffered any other contract losses... but what about the existing poor margin? That hasn't gone away. IMO this could sink to somewhere around fair value with very little premium for future potential in the share price till they can indicate they have got to grips with the existing poor margin problems and the fear is how long before any improvement. Could be a fair old while! So what's 'fair value'?My guess is 140-160p

[tsmith2] 13/12/2016 16:22

Good solid director buying

[salpara111] 13/12/2016 16:03

On a purely technical basis it would look like 170 is the support line.
If it hits that level I will look to buy back my stake.

[igoe104] 13/12/2016 15:31

yes very good to see, £334k is no drop in the ocean. they must be confident of turning the corner.

[rivaldo] 13/12/2016 14:45

The CEO and Chairman have bought £334,000 of stock at 191p. Encouraging indeed.

Investors can now buy at somewhat below the price paid by the directors.

[simon gordon] 13/12/2016 13:46

Dow Jones Newswires - 13/12/16:

1038 GMT NCC Group PLC shares are down 7.4% at 190p after detailing lower profit expectations due to project cancellations, adding to the much heavier losses sustained in October when it first announced the cancellations. That said, overall trading remains solid, say analysts at Jefferies, who note that the company is continuing to hire staff having "taken the view that missing market estimates is more palatable thancompromising its ability to retain top talent amidst layoffs." Keeps its buy rating but cuts its target to 270p from 320p.