Ncc Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 05/12/2016 16:50

Dontay,

There are a lot of open questions. The Hambro fundie has forked out hard cash, he could be mistaken, too early or on the money.

[dontay] 05/12/2016 16:17

simon gordon... thing is, how is the profit margin doing, is there going to be profit warning in January, why wasn't a reason given for the FD resignation from the bod with "immediate effect" was the he in fact relieved of his duties with immediate effect and sacked from the bod? why haven't they appointed a replacement after all this time.... who to believe?While revenue in the trading period exceeded expectations in Assurance, Escrow was below target and excluding currency the growth was around 1%," Canaccord said."We believe Assurance revenue was driven by lower margin product reselling. With the dollar appreciating versus sterling post Brexit, US security products are now priced higher and potentially squeezing reseller margins."Canaccord said it was "sceptical" of management's expectation that profitability will recover in the second half and that it will achieve full year profit targets.The broker said contract renewal issues for Accumuli contracts will result in a delay in revenue recognition and a higher cost of delivery.Canaccord has lowered its earnings forecast by 16% in fiscal year 2017 and 7% in 2018 and applied a reduced 18x profit multiple to the Assurance business versus 22x previously."Besides earnings expectations, we highlight the importance of monitoring free cash flow, which has shown a declining trend in the last couple of years," the broker said."This should improve going forward following the closure of Domain Services but should remain an area of focus for investors."

[simon gordon] 05/12/2016 14:44

What Investment - 5/12/16:

Mark Costar, who runs the JO Hambro UK Growth fund, has been buying shares in UK Tech stock NCC Group as the shares have fallen by a third in a year.

The JO Hambro UK Growth fund has returned 83 per cent over the past five years, compared to 59 per cent for the average fund in the IA UK All Companies sector in the same time period.

NCC Group’s shares have fallen from £284.50 to £1.88 over the past year. The bulk of that fall came on October 19, when the company delivered a disappointing update to the market.

Costar commented, ‘A confluence of contract delays, all unrelated but nevertheless unwelcome, was not taken too kindly by the market given the recent strong performance of the shares and the attendant expectations that had started to be built into the price. As frustrating as this was, now the dust has settled it is very much our view that the shares have appreciably overreacted and we have added considerably to our position.’

He continued, ‘NCC is the one of the largest, if the not the largest, independent cybersecurity consultants in the world. Cybersecurity has gone from being an IT decision to a boardroom decision and is exhibiting enormous underlying growth. NCC has world class capabilities in ethical hacking, threat detection and analytics, not to mention an enviable position in automotive cybersecurity, where it works with more than 90% of the global car manufacturers. As such, the business has considerable strategic value. Moreover, with a strong balance sheet, a cash generative core in its escrow business, and run by a proven management team that has a long-term approach and owns considerable equity in the business, we believe the business has a tremendous future. At this valuation, we believe the shares are materially mispricing these attributes and have acted accordingly.’

[richjp] 01/12/2016 15:33

I had been watching this one for a good while and waiting for a good moment to buy in but in the end stayed out. I got lucky through my indecision so avoided the consequences of the profit warning.

I think it always takes time to get over a profit warning, so I am going to wait for evidence that it is back on track before considering buying in. I might make more by buying now, but I think the risk is too high, because as someone else has said, we may not yet have seen all of the problems.

[maytrees] 01/12/2016 09:14

No answer then to my question above.

My own conclusion is that instituts buy small tranches to build up a chunk discretely. They have to issue an RNS of course when their holding go over 3% etc. Quite why the share price gains when the large number of small sales outwieghs the buys is beyond me though - dyor!

[salpara111] 01/12/2016 08:41

Disappointing to have dropped out of the FTSE 250.
I guess it will take a reassuring update to turn things around.

[dealer1972] 30/11/2016 10:48

Yep my thoughts also. If you look at the individual trade volume and timings it looks like small AT orders designed to take out the bid. Shorter activity I guess. Looking v oversold again!

[smokybenchod] 30/11/2016 10:42

very surprised we are back down to these levels, there's been no new news that I am aware of so it's got to be a case of the Market Makers playing around with the share price

[staylow1] 30/11/2016 10:36

The buy volume is 200k to 80k sell. I would of thought the price would be on the rise with these sort of buy/sell ratios?

[dealer1972] 30/11/2016 10:23

With yet another cyber attack in the headlines this morning you'd have thought NCC would be well positioned to take advantage and start seriously peddling their wares!

[tsmith2] 30/11/2016 09:51

Yes, v little vol though

[blueball] 30/11/2016 09:36

Very weak today.

[igoe104] 29/11/2016 16:29

Not seen this been posted before.

NCC Group welcomes National Cyber Security Strategy
The government has launched its National Cyber Security Strategy to 2021, with Chancellor Phillip Hammond providing more details on the £1.9bn investment. The plans set out action needed to protect the UK economy and the privacy of British citizens, while encouraging industry to increase its efforts to prevent cyber attacks.
Commenting on the announcement, Rob Cotton, CEO at NCC Group, said: “We welcome the launch of the new National Cyber Security Strategy, particularly its acknowledgement of the importance of a partnership between Government and industry in order to protect the UK against cyber threats. What we need now is both political and commercial action to turn the words into reality.
“We are in total agreement with the Government that it is up to businesses to address basic vulnerabilities and keep their networks secure, but we must acknowledge that there is no such thing as being 100 per cent secure. What really matters is resilience: the ability to detect and respond to attacks in the appropriate manner.
“The Government has stated that organisational culture change is still needed as behaviour has not yet changed to the extent needed. We strongly agree with this assertion. There is a considerable need for improved governance and senior sponsorship of cyber security. Each company board must take ownership of the risk. Cyber security isn’t something that should just sit with the risk and audit committees, where it will become an exercise in compliance.
“NCC Group is taking the lead here, having set up a dedicated Cyber Security Committee. It is led by a senior independent non-executive director, and I personally sit on the committee alongside the Group’s other non-executive directors. We assess the performance of the Group’s internal security and defences and report back on a monthly basis. We are the first listed company to have a Cyber Security Committee at a board level and we urge other listed companies to do the same.
 “Another strategic issue is the skills gap. Cyber security skills are desperately needed across government and the private sector. We need to get education right to deliver a healthy pipeline of talent, both to keep the country secure and to take advantage of the significant growth potential of this industry. We also need to keep incentivising investment in skills, talent and technologies so we are able to keep pace with other nations and cyber criminals.
“Finally, we should not forget about EU regulations on the horizon, such as GDPR and the NIS Directive. Cyber security is cross-border so international collaboration is key. We urge the Government to retain the UK’s world leadership position as shown by this strategy and adopt stringent standards to help keep businesses and consumers secure.”

[staylow1] 29/11/2016 08:55

Igoe, that's been mentioned in the times today. NCC and a couple of others look to be set to cross index boundaries

[igoe104] 29/11/2016 07:59

Could be dropping out the ftse 250 soon, according to my calculations.

I wouldn't be surprised if Aviva are still selling as well ?

we need some positive news of some sort to kick-start this share.

[dontay] 26/11/2016 12:57

Hedley2... yes, I absolutely agree on that, it undoubtedly would. Although directors buying can often times be misconstrued, (as can selling!) it would in this instance provide some reassurance and some indication that they believe they can overcome the margin erosion problems as quickly as they have stated... and that prior guidance IS still on track.... and they believe the chances of full on profit warning in January are low. I also want to see a quality new Financial director in the boardroom! The chances that the last one who stood down from the boardroom with "immediate effect"... could possibly have been relived of his duties... in conjunction with the margin erosion problems we now know have been brewing... are just too much of a circumstance for me to swallow at the moment. I would be quite happy to get into this at the present share price level... if there was some reassurance from the bod... but as things stand I believe the risk of a REAL profit warning is simply to great. IF we DO get another one I wouldn't like to say how far it could drop and the climb back up through lack of confidence could well mean this becomes another one of those rising stars that have permanently fallen from the heavens!

[hedley2] 25/11/2016 19:33

Would be nice to see the Directors buying into this price drop to confirm it's been overdone!

[dontay] 25/11/2016 15:53

Hi ILF... yes I read Singer's note. The difficulty I have is the 'company speak' which gives me concern that there is another issue in addition to Singers explanations.Singer's explanations note covered the 3 contract losses plus the FOX deferral. Those explanations seem perfectly reasonable to me... BUT it did not explain or mention the contract renewal difficulties in what is now the 'managed security services business unit'... which I believe could be a separate but potentially serious issue... THIS is what I would like to see some clarity on. Thanks to Singer we DO seem to have some clarity on why the loss of the 3 contracts and the FOX deferred contract. Extract from the RNS:... "the loss of three major contracts.. ALONG WITH (my accent) ... difficulties with contract renewals within the managed security services business unit (formerly Accumuli plc) is causing a significant erosion of margin"."Fox-IT continues to be slowly integrated into the Group but the lumpy nature of its product revenues and a large contract deferral allied to complex Government relationships makes this process more challenging".What has also now become a concern to me is the sudden resignation with immediate effect of the FO... with NO reason given! I am very suspicious that the two events are/could be connected. As yet no expert replacement has been announced... that is also a concern considering the financial aspects and complexities resolving margin erosion problems. I can't see anything other than the share price staying constrained unless more clarity is forthcoming very soon.

[ilovefrogs] 25/11/2016 14:51

Dontay - I'd agree with you if the contract renewal issues hadn't been explained. They have though, in detail (did you read the Singers note, post 696 from glasshalffull?)

UIs this a fundamental worsening of their core business, or some isolated issues with two of their newer acquisitions. The facts today suggest the latter to me - I can't see anything yet which implies the former.

[dontay] 25/11/2016 14:23

NCC have stuck to prior guidance for the time being but due to the 'significant' margin erosion of an already constrained margin, which incidentally, was earmarked for corrective action and now seemingly considerably worse... and also the slowly dwindling cash flow reported over the last couple of years... there has to be a very good chance that there will be a 'proper' full on profit warning for the full yr projection accompanying the results due in January. The RNS also identified 'difficulties' in contract renewals, IMO this is far more important than the loss of three contracts due to unrelated outside influences... and the deferral of another due to government 'complexities'... this bit of news which was basically tacked on the end of the main news... could also have far reaching reputational damage implications in this important security area. IMO, in the absence of no other news or more visibility given to the contrary, this sentiment will keep the share price at least treading water around this level till January. Nicely rising revenues and constant acquisitions are one thing... healthy profit margins are quite another!

[tsmith2] 25/11/2016 12:46

Feels like bottomed out

[masurenguy] 24/11/2016 11:44

Montanaro Asset Management have added a further 770K shares to increase their stake to 8.2%

[tsmith2] 24/11/2016 11:44

Montaro seem to have added

[rivaldo] 23/11/2016 12:27

NCC's joint broker Peel Hunt retain their Buy and 330p target price - presumably in the belief this is a one-off/temporary blip:

[rivaldo] 18/11/2016 12:43

A nice mention here:



Extracts:

"Procorre is urging IT businesses to consider these three emerging markets when looking at places to start or expand their operations.

Wiktor continues: “Companies like the NCC Group which has its headquarters in Manchester, UK, has chosen to continue its international expansion in Dubai because of the prevalence and pace of its evolving IT sector, and we’re seeing other big companies investing in these emerging markets too."

"UAE – In 2016, Dubai officially launched its $270 million Future Accelerators programme designed to transform the city into an innovation hub and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is predicted to spend up to $1 billion on cyber security by 2018."