National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[gliderpilot2002] 10/11/2016 09:23

Massive hit on debt reorganisation and another on the increase in the pension deficit. Very difficult for small investors to easily see the true picture.

[gliderpilot2002] 10/11/2016 09:13

The pension scheme liability is growing

[m100] 09/11/2016 19:42

National Grid chief calls for ‘fundamental’ network charging review

[utyinv] 09/11/2016 12:16

sub £10 this is crazy for a safe haven utility.

The share price has lost 70p in less than a week. Normally prices rise up to results then fall a little thereafter. Let's hope John Pettigrew announces something spectacular tomorrow, but on track record, that I am afraid, is wishful thinking!

[mike24] 09/11/2016 04:47

anti-Washington vote, so a flight to safety
plus all utilities looking good for long term,

[utyinv] 07/11/2016 10:01

Jury is out on whether John Pettigrew was the right man to take charge from Steve Holliday.

Bear in mind that When Steve Holliday retired he did leave a great Legacy good final results, the decision to sell off part of a cost draining, income poor Gas Distn business(Partly due to difficult revenue caps imposed by OFGEM).

It is no wonder that John is seen as less Charismatic than his predessor Steve Holliday, who always argued a great case for National Grid being the best Utility, taking every opportunity to plug the 'City' with positive PR and challenging incorrect assumptions that Hedge Funds use to push the Company's share price down.

There is little that John can say about the Company before Thursday (Interims) but I fear that unless he steps up to the mark and delivers on what CEO's are primarily there to deliver,i.e, shareholder value and company market cap growth, then we may be in for a period of Investor 'Exodus' where the likes of SSE may be a better investment. Just bear in mind that losses in National Grid over four days takes away the benefit of the potential 70p special dividend from the 'eventual' sale of the part Gas Distn Business.

These 'Interims' are the first results that John has been responsible for as CEO and although the charts do not look promising let's hope he turns this 'blip' around (hoping it is a blip!).

[atlantic57] 06/11/2016 09:09

Well based on the lack of Comment here it looks like investors do not see the American case involving National Grid as a big deal. The Market makers or shorter took the opportunity to lower the price.

[utyinv] 04/11/2016 17:57

MJ19,

Re: MJ193 Nov '16 - 21:33 - 4117 of 4119 0 0
Why do credit Suisse keep saying this ?

Vested interest?? Shorting the stock? Before anyone says there isn't a disclosed position on the FCA's web page, I still believe these crooks are at it with 'Naked Shorting' which is illegal but is still prevalent.

That's why it would be great for Pettigrew and his 'Board' to announce (or let slip prematurely) something spectacular that catches these rogues out before they can effectively close their 'Short' position in time and lose 'big time'!

[atlantic57] 04/11/2016 10:33

Was there any reason for the circa
50 pence drop in share price on Tuesday
Wednesday

[mj19] 03/11/2016 21:37

Does This Dividend Darling Have Any Upside: National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG)October 31, 2016 CSZ Staff If investors are looking for a stable dividend stock with upside, National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG) could be one that fits the bill. The stock currently provides a dividend yield of 4.92% for the Utilities company. Sell-side analysts covering the shares are projecting that it will reach $75.27 within the next 12-18 months. This is a solid upside to a recent tick of $64.66. On a consensus basis, analysts have a Buy/Sell rating of 2.70, which is based on a 1 to 5 scale where 1 represents a Strong Buy and 5 a Strong Sell. A dividend is used when a company's board of directors issue a portion of the company's earnings to its shareholders. These dividends can be in the form of a cash payout, as stock shares, or as other property. The dividend rate can be quoted as a percent of the current market price, known as the dividend yield, or quoted in terms of the dollar amount each share gets, called dividends per share or DPS.Profits of a company can be distributed to their shareholders by a dividend, or can be kept as retained earnings within the company. The company might choose to use their net profits and buy back their own shares out in the markets as a share buyback. Dividends and share buy-backs don't change the value of a company's shares. Dividend payments are approved by shareholders and could be structured as a one-time dividend, or as a cash flow to investors and owners.High-growth companies such start-ups like those in the technology or biotechnology sectors usually don't offer dividends because they need to use all of their profits reinvested back into the company in order to sustain the higher-than-average growth that they need. More established companies will issue regular dividends because they want to maximize shareholder wealth. Companies in the sectors of oil and gas, basic materials, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, banks and financial, utilities, and REITS tend to issue dividends more than other sectors.RECENT PERFORMANCELet's take a look at how the stock has been performing recently. Over the past twelve months, National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG)'s stock was -4.37%. Over the last week of the month, it was -1.07%, -10.96% over the last quarter, and -8.32% for the past six months. Over the past 50 days, National Grid plc stock's -11.28% off of the high and 0.83% removed from the low. Their 52-Week High and Low are noted here. -13.75% (High), 2.69%, (Low). FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISFundamental analysis examines the financial elements of a company, for example; sales, cash flow, profit and balance sheet. These numbers are then crunched to create theoretical valuations of companies. Earnings Per Share (EPS) is the earnings made by a company divided by their number of shares. EPS enables the earnings of a company to easily be compared to their competitors. The higher the number, the more profit per dollar is being made on investor capital. National Grid plc's EPS for the trailing 12 months is 4.19. Their EPS should be compared to other companies in the Utilities sector.Price-to-Earnings Ratio is the current share price divided by annual earnings per share. P/E provides a number that details how many years of earnings it will take a stock to recoup the value of one share at current price levels. Easy to calculate and understand, P/E is an extremely common ratio that is used to compare valuations of stocks against each other relatively. National Grid plc's P/E ratio is 15.44. Projected Earnings Growth (PEG) is a forward looking ratio based on anticipated earnings growth. PEG is created by dividing P/E by the projected rate of earnings growth. National Grid plc's PEG is 5.51.TECHNICAL ANALYSISTechnical analysts have little regard for the value of a company. They use historic price data to observe stock price patterns to predict the direction of that price going forward. Analysts use common formulas and ratios to accomplish this.National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG)'s RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 34.70. RSI is a technical indicator of price momentum, comparing the size of recent gains to the size of recent losses and establishes oversold and overbought positions.

[mj19] 03/11/2016 21:33

Why do credit Suisse keep saying this ?National Grid plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:NG had its stock rating noted as 'Reiterates' with the recommendation being set at 'UNDERPERFORM' today by analysts at Credit Suisse. National Grid plc are listed in the Utilities sector within UK Main Market. Credit Suisse have set their target price at 840 GBX on its stock. This would indicate that the analyst believes there is a downside of 21% from today's opening price of 1063 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 4 points and decreased 52 points respectively.

[atlantic57] 01/11/2016 07:29

Thank you for taking the time to explain it again.I had missed the debt element.

[utyinv] 01/11/2016 00:00

atlantic57,

I thought my previous posts explained it!

Briefly, if you read the statements from the Chairman at the AGM he said the the proceeds from the sale will be returned to shareholders.

He also went on to say that they may use some of the proceeds to buy back some shares in order to maintain the dividend income for a Company that has sold part of its business.

Distn business is conservatively priced at £11billion.
51% of £11billion is £5.61 billion.
Debt on the part sale is approx £2billion, they (NG) will pay that debt down.
leaving £3.61 billion.
lets suppose a buy back of £1billion, will leave £2.61 billion to be distributed to shareholders.
There are 3.7 billion shares in circ, so, £2.61billion / 3.7 billion shares = 70p

Obviously, this is IMO only as I have assumed a buy back to maintain as far as possible dividend strategy to raise divi's by RPI. BTW RPI is currently running now at 2% and due to increase. So with this years divi being 43.5p (15p Int: 28.5p Fin) X 2% therefore for next year I will expect Int divi in Jan of 15.3p and a Fin divi in Aug of 29.07p = 44.37p (hopefully)! This does not include the special divi mentioned.

NG could, buy back more shares and Comapanies do change their mind. However, the Chairman did say that if they do not get the expected price from a bidder they simply don't have to sell.

Again this is just my reading of the situation.

[atlantic57] 31/10/2016 11:07

UtyINV10

Can you explain how you have arrived at your figure of 65-75 pence being retuned to shareholders please.

Thanks

[garycook] 27/10/2016 08:24

To all NG. shareholders. I have today put a Limit sell order on my holding in NG. of £12,to stop Shorter,s from loaning the shares from my broker,which they can do for a fee,without me or you knowing about.I suggest you do the same.

[mike24] 17/10/2016 23:14

to-days press, capita asset services
the fall in sterling has provided a £2.5bn dividend boost
to owners of London listed shares, the boost from currency
changes, means divi's rose to £24.9bn in third qtr 2016

[m100] 17/10/2016 09:10

Winter Outlook Report 2016/17 pdf

[utyinv] 10/10/2016 14:16

db125,

These are a long term hold and the interim dividend paid just after the New Year should give 15pxRPI so my guess is 15.15p. Thereafter a Special divi paid due to the Distn sale in the Spring of approx 65 - 75p and a final divi in Aug of about 26.5p x RPI less slightly reduced earning from the part sale of the Distn business. IMO income from these shares for next year 2017 should bring in £1.18p / share. With the promise of an increasing dividend strategy and the view that for every £1 spent on capex Grid always wants back £1+ ie, they expect to make a premium on every £1 spent, thus the market cap and Company share price should grow. Again IMO only

[utyinv] 10/10/2016 13:59

prewar,

NG are always re-evaluating their debt, re-visiting current debt and swapping it with better rates. They don't just furnish their debt in GBP or US$. Bonfield the CFO advised that NG were quite smart in going to the currency markets to get better deals on their current Debt. In a world of uncertainty 'Lenders' need to ballance their risk and reward and NG being a safe bet command very low rates of interest. I also believe, from inference, that Grid like any major Co. do hedge on currencies, so it wouldn't surprise me to learn Grid have options on the GBP.

Bonfield is quite a bright guy and was in the running to succeed Steve Holliday pipped at the post by John Pettigrew an Ecconomist and an Engineer.

Either way the fall in NG is not supported by fundamentals just rhetoric and spin from Hedgies that do not know the business and are after opportunities to close short positions or to buy a very lucrative stock at a fire sale price. Unfortunately though, the 'City' sometimes listens to these idiots who put 2 and 2 together and try and make it look like -2.

My only criticism regarding NG is that they do not update the 'City' on issues as often as I would like. However, the interim results are out in just over 4 weeks and the Company are still going through the RIIO half term re-evaluation (tweaking permissable spending and revenue due to eg. changes / delays to future generation build etc). Upshot is that if they (NG) stated how well they were doing now Ofgem might try and squeeze more out of Grid and anyway I imagine there would be a limit on what they could say due to the 'Close Period'. After the half stage re-visit of the eight year contract Grid will have a clear four years before having to negotiate the next eight year RIIO. All IMO only!

[db125] 10/10/2016 13:50

Failing to keep up even on good days for the market. Momentum and RSI both trending down. Sterling depreciation may or may not benefit earnings but sterling depreciation won't be reflected in dividends above those already projected by NG.

[prewar] 10/10/2016 12:57

Uty

I think I agree with most of that, however wasn't sure what you meant by:

"NG hedge their debt on currency fluntuation, but I am led to believe income from US is as it is."

and

"and the regulator also promotes NG to hedge against the debt in their favour which in turn keeps customer bills down"

Don't NG just issue US debt (and equity) to reduce their exposure to $ fluctuations, their net investment (after debt) they would then hedge by fwd contracts. I think this is referred to as a Balance sheet hedge.

[utyinv] 10/10/2016 02:10

Prewar,

Sorry misunderstood what you were getting at. NG hedge their debt on currency fluntuation, but I am led to believe income from US is as it is. Also, last week NG were granted the permission for a rate rise to recoup money spent. Unlike the UK where the Regulator dictates revenue against pre-agreed capex, in the US NG spend not knowing how much they can get back from customer's bills (bit of a gamble).

Also, on debt (which is taken out across GBP, Euros, Dollars etc), the UK Regulator actively encourages NG to be geared quite high (to keep customer bills down)in comparison to other Co's that are not guaranteed an income from customers bills recouping capex spend(monopoly). Like it or not when NG was privatised money spent on Capex on increasing assets needed to reinforce the system is paid for by customers at both ends,ie Use of system for Gens to connect and Use of system by customers to recieve the energy transported; so to speak.

That is why NG debt is always at a very competitive rate ( extremely low risk) and the regulator also promotes NG to hedge against the debt in their favour which in turn keeps customer bills down.

NG is unique in that there aren't many companies who can spend money on infrastructure and in law (if agreed within RIIO)get it back from customers bills. A double benefit is that the increase in asset value makes the Company's Market Cap higher.

[prewar] 09/10/2016 21:40

Uty not sure you understood my post or maybe I haven't understood yours. My understanding is NG hedge their investment in US assets with fwd contracts. So whilst a stronger dollar would mean better £ cashflows this is offset by adverse mvmt on hedged position.