Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[cb7] 22/1/2010 11:04

I'm happy with the resillience shown this week, while the market suffers a downturn. Someone wants this stock!

[sussexseagull] 21/1/2010 12:31

I took up my rights issue at 105p so I'm happy enough.

Anyone else?

[scorpione] 14/1/2010 19:10

trendfloor

can you expand a little, looks very confusing.....

[trendfloor] 14/1/2010 08:57

broker Buy reco out late yesterday....

National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
13-01-10 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

[paulywally] 05/1/2010 15:20

Happy new year traders, lets hope it's a good one this year!

[scorpione] 21/12/2009 13:15

Winston,

Update in line with expectations, good article yesterday in Sunday Times (Inside the City) confirming what has already been discussed between us about recovery prospects.

Developments will indeed be interesting....

I agree that it could take some time before the share price reaching that peak again (£12.45 pre rights equates to approx £4.47 post rights) however it's moving in the right direction which is the main thing!

[winston270] 18/12/2009 17:37

Scorpione,

Yes, I fully agree, fingers crossed there is no more bad news to come, hopefully it's all out & its onwards & upwards from here, I think it will be sometime until we get back up to equivalent of £12.45 per share pre rights though. If Dean can work some magic to improve profits at existing group businesses that might well pave the way for NEX to start investing again in existing operations and maybe even start looking again at future acquisitions possibilities.

A combination of First Group & NEX would give them approx 75,000 school buses in USA & Canada, 10,000 buses in UK, plus Spain, plus it would also give them a ticket back in to UK rail franchises (actually NEX may be better steering clear of those....). I don't think there would be too many competition concerns either, there is little overlap in UK bus, NEX don't have many remaining rail franchises, not sure how it would work in USA?

Yes, after you said yours was all was working normally, to checked my settings & re-set it back to default and it's cured it.

I'm now awaiting developments with interest....

[scorpione] 18/12/2009 16:55

Winston

Funnily enough I had been having the same thoughts about First Group over the last few days! It makes sense with Dean Finch on board as you say; it may well already be one of Finch's aces up his sleeve in readiness for when he starts in the Spring in addition to other value boosting ideas that he will bring.

I think that we will have fun with this one over the next few months trying to anticipate events and most importantly, hopefully we will make some money at the same time! I am very confident that NEX has turned a corner now and the share price should continue to strengthen in anticipation of recovery and potential merger activity.

Sorted out your ADVFN troubles?

[winston270] 18/12/2009 13:21

Scropione,

I still think NEX may well merge with one of the other big UK groups at some point, as opportunities to grow in UK are few & far between, the most likely candidate I think could be First Group, 1. with Dean Finch's inside knowledge of the group 2. it could well coincide with when Moir Lockhead decides to retire. I understand NEX have sounded First Group out with a merger prosal in the past, when NEX were in a stringer position.

[scorpione] 16/12/2009 10:49

Winston,

Yes brilliant news, the share price is starting to react positively and should continue to do so.

Can't say I am having the problems you mention.

[winston270] 16/12/2009 10:43

Scorpione,

I'll second that!!! All the bits of the jigsaw are starting to fall in to place, It will be interesting to see how things pan out....

Are you having any trouble reading announcements on ADVFN at the moment?

[scorpione] 16/12/2009 10:32

Excellent news for NEX! Dean Finch has accepted the job. That completes the picture for the recovery process to start.

[scorpione] 15/12/2009 17:39

Winston

I agree, Dean Finch is definitely the key here, let's hope that he accepts!!

[winston270] 15/12/2009 16:06

Scorpione,

I think all the bidders were trying to acquire NEX on the cheap while the group was on its knee's, at that time the individual business units were worth far more than the group itself.

I think if they can recruit Dean Finch things will get interesting... the press seems to suggest he had all but agreed to join prior to Tubelines last ditch attempts to retain Finch. Apparantly Finch was being groomed @ First Group to take over from Moir Lockhead on his retirement but Finch couldn't wait & jumped ship to join Tubelines.

Judging by John Devany's recent comments, I suspect a merger with one of the other big groups is more likely in the future rather than a takoever.

[scorpione] 15/12/2009 13:11

Winston

Agreed, I think the Cosmens were also looking to get in on the party and profit from a cheap takeover but it hasn't worked out so they are now having to compromise.

If anyone is still interested post rights they will have to pay a higher price, this is what Andy Brough of Schroders was saying all along.

[winston270] 15/12/2009 12:00

Scropione,

Thanks for your comments, I was pretty much of the same opinion re recover play, hopefully all the bad news is out, if they can recruit Dean Finch the signs are all looking more positive, especially with the Cosmens back on side.

The price has remained pretty steady since going ex rights which looks promising and we have near on 20% on the shares in issue tightly held by the Cosmens.

I'm not convinced Stagecoach will be back to bid table, I think they were looking to acquire NEX cheap, obviously with reduced debt levels & if they can start to turn around the profitability of NEX they would command a much higher price

[scorpione] 15/12/2009 09:09

Winston

There are several points going in NEX favour at the moment:

There has been a >90% take up of rights, the Cosmens seem to be back on side and as I anticipated in earlier posts, they have taken up their entire rights; they are close to appointing a new CEO (hopefully Dean Finch). They will be reducing their debt. The Dept of transport are off their back for the time being which buys them more time for future strategy.

This has all the ingriedients of recovery; adding in the prospect of further takeover activity in the New Year should see the share price strengthen further from hereon.

imho. dyor

[winston270] 09/12/2009 11:00

Hi all,

Does anyone any thoughts on whether the NEX share price will drop much below the current price? Its seems pretty stable at the moment...

Plus there is potential news imminent of a new Chief Exec if Dean Finch accepts the role

[oscer] 04/12/2009 19:06

will the dividend be secure?

[scorpione] 04/12/2009 13:21

Winston

I think the most likely is Stagecoach however they have to wait until March I believe.

In any event, investors may well be positioning themselves in anticipation of further takeover activity in the first quarter of 2010.

[winston270] 04/12/2009 12:44

There's hardly anyone left to bid in the UK until the takeover panels 6 month restrictions are lifted, First Group will be in position to make a new offer first, but they played this down in their recent results.

Other than Arriva I can't think of anyone else, I don't think Go-Ahead group are big enough, unless a European bus group is interested?

Any ideas?

[am4rjit] 04/12/2009 10:07

Look like rumors are starting again

[steve517499] 03/12/2009 09:04

Agreed ... no point debating this further ... only time will show whether a deal is placed on the table next year, and whether its' terms will be better or worse than the originally proposed Cosmen deal.

Good luck to all holders

[scorpione] 02/12/2009 20:29

steve517499

You are obviously entitled to your opinion, as everyone else is entitled to theirs. However, I repeat this is OLD news which has been in the public domain since before July. It was widely expected and something that ANY bidder would have already taken into consideration prior to an offer. It would have been very short sighted of them to consider bidding 'on a wing and a prayer'.

There was no guarantee that the department of transport would go back on their word, merely a tacit agreement (my recollection of the news I read) that they would strongly re-consider it if the deal went through and Stagecoach became involved. Also, as you can clearly see from the last couple of lines of the statement extract the offer was not even conditional on the sale of any business to Stagecoach!

After such statement under Takeover rules, it would not have been possible for CVC / Cosmens / Stagecoach to wriggle out if the department of transport stuck to their guns. I think that they saw the possibility of a mind change purely as 'icing on the cake'.

Let's not forget that Andy Brough of Schroders and other fund managers / majority shareholders were all in very much in favour of this rights issue (66% majority vote at the EGM). As Winston above correctly pointed out, this will reduce debt. In the words of Andy Brough this means potentially flushing out a higher bid in due course.

[winston270] 02/12/2009 18:05

Not to mention, NEX will also have reduced debts of circa £750 million in the not to distant future