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Real-Time news about Napier Brown (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|davethehorse: Anybody on this BB still holding NBF - the slide in share price of RGD looks unwarrented to me on fundermentals - any comments.
The enlarged group looks good value to me.
|typo56: Jassie, the ratio isn't that relevant unless you have the ability to arbitrage by shorting RGD today in any meaningful volume. What matters is the price you will be able to sell RGD at when you get allocated your 1.6236 shares per NBF share.
It was different in the case of SEG & EID, where there was enough liquidty to play those games.|
|jassie: Currently getting £1.93/nbf share (1.6236*£1.19)|
|davethehorse: Agree with you Typo - although I think the drop in the RGD share price is a short term one. The deal at current prices is only a few % premium to NBF at the time of the first announcement not 220p a share.
NBF on 175p bid and offer for some time now - strange..|
|davethehorse: Once trading in NBF has ceased I expect the share price in RGD to recover back to 140p plus level - while trading continues in both the market is going to factor in price descrepancies between the two companies with regard to share price value.|
|diogenesj: Any 'premium' is a bit of a red herring, I feel. RGD is a much smaller company. The more they offer, the more of the total combined company will be held by NBF shareholders. The current price of RGD's shares is pretty meaningless in this context. However it is expressed, this is a takeover of RGD by NBF (if it goes ahead). It would be more interesting to know why it is being done like this at all.
RGD doesn't look expensive, but with no current forecasts, and the share price plummeting, it is very hard to say what it is actually worth. The chart pattern suggests that there may be some hitherto unacknowledged problems there.|
|tanners: OK Yah.....an interesting reference to Oakdene and the HoneyGrove takeover.
This actually went through at a discount to HYG's then valuation, which not surprisingly did slightly upset the HYG shareholders at the time.
However, as ever the bigger picture needs to be looked at, namely that in all-share deals such as this it follows that the more of a premium that the acquirer pays, then the less value there is in holding the resultant enlarged Company.
With the OKD/HYG scenario, whilst short term it didn't look great for HYG shareholders, at least the value was transferred to their holding in the enlarged OKD (and the apparent steal also had the effect of discouraging a sell off once the acquisition had been completed).
I invested in OKD shortly after the deal, as the enhanced value was significantly overlooked in OKD's price.
Where does it leave us with NBF then......
Well, say if the share offer came in at say a 20% comparative premium for NBF holders, would the current holders then be tempted to sell, causing a temporary depression in GFC's share price, and thereby wiping out some of the premium for those who decide to continue their investment with the new Company.
If the premium is much lower then obviously NBF shareholders will be disllusioned in the short term, but the new group will be that much a better proposition in the long term.......although the 'value' of NBF could be diluted by the lesser value of the existing GFC business, if you were to conclude that GFC is not a particularly good value investment at it's current price.
And that to me is where the crux lies in determining what to do should this takeover proceed, which in all likelihood looks more than likely.......
I've had a briefish look at GFC this morning and have to conclude that it's very difficult to ascertain what would be a reasonable enterprise value for them, due to the number of recent acquisitions and restructuring undertaken which has completely clouded the bottom line/actual earnings.
Has anyone had a look at GFC in much detail?
Life's never straightforward I guess!|
|bookbroker: I'm not sure why anyone should be so at a loss as to why the share price is where it is now. The market assumes that a bid will either not reflect the value of the company or the majority shareholders will wish to sell at anything other than a very substantial premium, particularly so soon after receiving clearance from the MMC. for the Budgett acquisition. It is likely that the offer is purely opportunistic. Time will tell, therefore be patient. This co. still has very bright prospects.|
|sandbank: NURDIN: Sorry for the delay in getting back to you on this. Yes, the sales are are on behalf of a Finn client - a trust of some sort. But no matter on whose behalf they are selling, it seems a particularly curious moment to do so - unless they have to recognise capital gains this side of April 5th or something like that.
The only reason anyone knows about this is because Finns are not exempted and are therefore, in these circumstances, compelled to issue an RNS every time they sell whether they like it or not. They refuse point blank to give any information about these sales over and above what they've been obliged to declare in the RNSes. However, as they are the nominated brokers for NBF, the company itself should be on the phone to them to ask them what they - and their client -are playing at. If they, or their client, are making use of information that is not in the public domain that is a pretty serious matter. If the take-over talks fell through -for example- NBF would be required to issue an immediate RNS itself reporting that fact - but as far as I know the company is still fully engaged in discussions.
This is not the first time JMFinn have been involved in some puzzling behaviour
They are also the house broker for YRK York Pharma - a curious appointment for a broker which has no in-house pharmaceutical expert of its own. On September 6th last year they needed a brokers note written on YRK and had to commission an outside expert to write it. The person they chose is acknowledged as the sector's number one analyst who formerly worked for West LB.. The expert report - issued by Finn - valued YRK (capitalised then at only around £3m) as being potentially worth £176million. The note may as well have been printed on blue touch-paper.
On September 10th This Is Money's Patrick Lay noted that this research note had boosted the share price to 69 pence. He rang up Finns to ask the obvious question - is this independent analyst someone who was going to work for YRK? The answer was an emphatic "no". In a statement Finn said they were "happy" to put their name to the research, but the author was moving to another job and did not wish to be identified.' Lay said he got a colleague to the check whether FInns still stuck with their analyst's incredibly rosy projection. They did.But that research note added £1.7m to the value of a very small cap company
You can read the full story on http://www.diana.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid82298|
|tom.muir: Don't just look at the PER though. The PEG for 2005, even at the new share price, is .19 and for 2006 is .36
It HAS to be worth £3+ Tom|
Napier Brown share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange