Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 05/4/2024 15:23

From the January Trading Update, Bush & Co are growing strongly with profits of 4.4m. On these figures I would say that a purchaser paying £40m would be getting a bargain.

"In the Group's Critical Care division, Bush & Co. had a very strong year. Revenues are expected to be 11% higher than last year at approximately GBP14.6m (2022: GBP13.2m) and operating profit is expected to be 29% ahead at approximately GBP4.4m (2022: GBP3.4m)."

That would leave NAHL with the Consumer Legal Services business which provides outsourced marketing services to law firms through National Accident Helpline and claims processing services to individuals through National Accident Law, Law Together and Your Law. In addition, it also provides property searches through Searches UK.

National Accident Helpline which is still transitioning away from its old model to the new fully integrated law firm, National Accident Law. Revenue GBP27.6m profit GBP2.8m. This should grow significantly in future as the higher margin business flows through.

* 73% increase in cash received from settlements, reflecting 92% more claims settled in the Group's fully integrated law firm, National Accident Law ("NAL")

* Over 35,000 new enquiries generated by National Accident Helpline, continuing its growth in market share

So at current 72p NAHL is valued at just £33.7m - surely worth double that imo.

[someuwin] 05/4/2024 13:45

Bush & Co in play then. The Betaville rumour was right about that bit being up for sale. lets see if their £40m valuation to PE comes to pass.

[blackhorse23] 05/4/2024 11:19

Out now with profit & going to buy APH

[someuwin] 05/4/2024 10:59

The Betaville piece (which they point out is just a rumour) suggests the interested party might be the buy out unit of one of the company's largest shareholders. And they may be willing to pay up to £40m for NAHL's critical care unit.

Well the largest holder is Harwood Capital LLP with 19.58%. Led by Christopher Mills, their group includes Harwood Private Equity and Harwood Private Equity so they would be prime candidates I would think.

Also would seem to be a clever move as Harwood are the largest holder they would also stand to benefit most from the transaction.

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 09:12

Thanks someuwin

[someuwin] 05/4/2024 09:09

NAHL Group, the London-listed consumer legal services company, has come under the spotlight amid talk it may be weighing a sale of part of the company for significantly more than the company's current market market capitalisation of the business.

People following the situation have heard rumours NAHL, which is due to unveil trading figures soon, may be looking to dispose of its critical care business to a private equity firm...

Read more...

[blackhorse23] 05/4/2024 09:06

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/APH/full-year-trading-update/16307097

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 08:54

where did you get that rumour from massimoj?

[massimoj] 05/4/2024 08:47

Rumour they are selling critical care

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 08:20

Something odd is going on here. Big jump to 80p offered on small but for them decent volume. I guess something is going on but I have no clue what.

[someuwin] 05/4/2024 08:19

Something's happening here.

[massimoj] 04/4/2024 11:00

Wonder if there could be a bid brewing here in the background here. Results later than normal and only 1 year extension to their debt facility - also announced later than normal…

[al101uk] 24/1/2024 11:33

Nice trading update today, wonder when the 'D' word will be mentioned again.

11% growth in Bush, "92% more claims settled" and "a 27% reduction in net debt to GBP9.7m, which was well ahead of market expectations".

[tiltonboy] 06/12/2023 10:22

Another bid for a Chris Mills holding (TENG)

Perhaps this one could be next under the hammer!

[blackhorse23] 10/11/2023 15:29

Bought APH today

[massimoj] 20/10/2023 12:10

On current trading, Bush & Co is likely worth c.£40m, so NAHL is in the category of companies that could realistically return close to its current market cap to investors over the next 12 months. This market really is a goldmine of hidden treasures

[loglorry1] 13/10/2023 15:44

Appologies it was 6.15 for FY24 I was confusing FY23/24 with your FY24/25. I'll try and get the allenby note.

Got the note now and yes they forecast 11.3p EPS for FY25.

[massimoj] 13/10/2023 12:41

My Stockopedia showing 6.15p EPS for FY24? And no figure shown for FY25. Allenby are the only broker with numbers in the market, so Stocko must be pulling its forecasts from them. Management have been very conservative with estimates for a couple of years now, and hitting the forecasts they have put in the market through Allenby is important to them. As a long term holder, it really is satisfying to see the strategy come towards fruition

[loglorry1] 13/10/2023 12:26

Hope you are right but Stocko forecasts are nothing like as high as that.

[massimoj] 13/10/2023 11:36

I think it's becoming clear that they are on track to hit the numbers they've put out in the Allenby research? EPS of 6p+ FY24 and 11p FY25, with £3-4m+ of free cash flow. No recession risk etc. In this market, predictable and stable businesses like this are increasingly attractive. Plus a very limited supply of shares available...

[loglorry1] 13/10/2023 07:57

Why the rise yesterday any news I missed?

[volsung] 12/10/2023 16:34

New multi-year high

[loglorry1] 27/9/2023 11:09

That's possible. I think Bush will be sold before then but we'll see.

[tiltonboy] 27/9/2023 10:56

Debt-free with 11p of earnings in two years time, i've seen touted!

[loglorry1] 27/9/2023 10:55

I think the results were good but inline. Still a debt pay down game but good to see they estimate the GP of the claims book being not much less than the outstandind debt. I think this will be a slow burn unless and until they sell the Bush business probabably to Frenkle Topping.

There has been a lot of inflation in motor claims recently so this might also help feed through to them a little in claim sizes.

Happy to hold until then.