Mytrah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 29/11/2012 18:19

What goes up must come down eh,

[eddie1980] 21/11/2012 11:05

shame to see this trickle back to 75 (roughly where it was before the sunday paper tip.

First solid results on 22/12 will be next potential catalyst. Other Indian power shares have also been pulling back in last few weeks.

[skippybragagnolo] 20/11/2012 20:52

Hi all, just started looking into these and am seriously considering buying, the level of growth forecast is impressive and looks to be based on actual secured contracts/ land etc. My only question having never been involved in India based companies is how secure is it as a base to do business in? What I mean is can the state be relied upon not to suddenly change the goal posts like they do in many African countries? I only ask because it looks like most of they're income comes from the contracts with the state.... forgive me if I'm missing something obvious!

[eddie1980] 19/11/2012 07:08

The main change for the compay is that myt will no longer be responsible for the build and development of sites (after the 2013 capacity) - that will all be the turbine manufacturers. So myt take ownership when they are built, on site and ready to Make money.

Moving the employee does go against everything they were saying about them In earlier updates however.

Odd that the auditors changed 4 days after they were revoted in at agm.

[mathisvale] 19/11/2012 03:52

Yes I agree that events could be interpreted as very fishy. However you have to bear in mind what kind of man is leading this company. He is an out and out experienced hands-on entrepreneur

The main things that keep me invested here are :-

1. Ravi Kailas's major stake in Mytrah is his shareholding which is well over 50%. This means that his interests are aligned with mine.
2. RK has taken great pains to fund expansion with loans and NOT dilutive share placings.
3. Yes He has his own company doing the work, but it is much cheaper than hiring 3 or 4 different companies working in parallel on different sites. The main point is that his company is experienced and he has total control over their work.
4. Several sites have been cancelled where long delays have appeared likely. It is so easy to lose money when snags or holdups occur. Especially when you consider the practical problems of transporting and assembling the huge blades to sites that are very difficult to access.
5. Several directors have left where it appears that their contribution to the company does not justify their salary.

This is not a guy who sits in his office issuing orders. He gets his hands dirty and he cuts corners to get the job done. I used to work for a guy like this in my working career, so I can imagine what it is like. You either love him or hate him - but he gets results.

[markt] 11/11/2012 15:35

so...the CEO has moved the workers to his own company.....
and then given a contract to his own company to do the work for Mytrah

and there are also posts complaining about the high level of pay/benefits for the directors

and a big wad of directors have left the board (see AGM news)

Does something smell fishy ?

(recalling Stephen Dean of Voyager IT and Griffin fame......
mega bonuses.....and later Voyager IT and Griffin ended up in the dust I think
after the money had gone to SD !)

[darkinbad] 09/11/2012 11:00

An even older article (May 2012) but interesting comparison in how to play the tariffs:

FIT+GBI or discounted rate plus CER. Discounted rate plus CER seems to win, in Tamil Nadu at least. INR 3.89/kWh for FIT+GBI and INR 5.07/kWh for discounted rate plus CER.

Policy uncertainty threatens capacity addition in wind sector
N. Ramakrishnan

Chennai, May 23:

The wind power industry fears that capacity addition will suffer due to policy uncertainty. Specifically, the generation-based incentive scheme that offered 50 paise a unit of electricity has not been extended. The industry is hoping that the Ministry for New and Renewable Energy will get this scheme extended for the 12{+t}{+h} Plan period too.

Besides, the facility of accelerated depreciation – which allowed a higher depreciation for calculating taxable profits in the first year of buying the wind turbine – has been discontinued from April 1. Those putting up wind turbines for captive use were the main beneficiaries of the accelerated depreciation scheme.

Incentives

The net effect of all this, says Mr Ramesh Kymal, Chairman, Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers' Association and Managing Director, Gamesa India, is that new installations will suffer. The industry added about 3,160 MW in 2011-12, half of which came under the generation-based incentive (GBI) scheme and the balance availed of the accelerated depreciation benefit.

The Centre introduced GBI towards the end of 2009 to provide incentives to investments in the wind energy sector as an alternative to the accelerated depreciation scheme and to set in place a framework to move from an investment based incentive to an outcome based one.

The scheme offered 50 paise a unit of electricity fed into the grid, over and above the tariff paid by the utility that bought the power, with a cap of Rs 62 lakh a MW. The scheme, available for wind turbines installed after December 17, 2009 and till March 31, 2012, was limited to a capacity of 4,000 MW.

Extension sought

According to Mr Kymal, the industry has represented to the Ministry to extend the validity of the scheme. It hopes the scheme will come into effect retrospectively from April 1.

According to industry sources, the response to the GBI scheme has been lukewarm mainly because the incentive is not attractive enough. The industry has been asking that the incentive be increased to Re 1 a unit and the cap of 4,000 MW removed.

Pricing

The industry's argument is that selling electricity generated by the wind turbines to the grid at a discounted price and then availing of the renewable energy certificates trading facility is more lucrative.

For instance, in Tamil Nadu, against a tariff of Rs 3.39 a unit and 50 paise under the GBI, a developer could sell the power to the grid at a discounted price of Rs 2.37 a unit and then trade the renewable energy certificates, which fetched it about Rs 2.70-2.80 a unit last year.

However, according to the sources, if the REC trading market cools down, then investments in wind power will suffer.

Installations & Funds

Information on the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency's Web site shows that it has received 133 applications for a capacity of 1,710 MW for the GBI scheme. The Ministry released Rs 25 crore and Rs 21.18 crore for the GBI scheme during 2010-11 and 2011-12.

According to a Strategic Plan for New and Renewable Energy Sector for the period 2011-17, available on the Ministry's Web site, the Ministry expects 13,400 MW of wind power to be added during this period. Of this, about 2,400 MW will come up in 2011-12 (the actual installation was 3,163 MW), and 2,200 MW in each of the subsequent years. The paper estimates that the Ministry will require Rs 2,800 crore for the six years (to pay as incentive) to achieve the annual targets during the period.

[e-mail]

[eddie1980] 08/11/2012 14:11

Latest on projects is the expected results in the lates trading update, regarding full year expected EBITDA's for capacity now and when they complete projects up to 600MW+

[darkinbad] 08/11/2012 12:35

Has there been any information published on the NPVs for the projects? I couldn't find anything specific in the placing document.

[eddie1980] 06/11/2012 10:22

Note that at bottom of link it states that more debt has been sold to Helix Investments Advisors India Private Ltd, though not the amount.

It does look like they are going a bit bonkers over the level of debt they want to take on to fund the growth! Lets hope cashflow in H1 is strong to support this.

[eddie1980] 05/11/2012 09:20

seen the Sunday share tip! can't say I disagree what they say. Given the company's own trading update post the H1 close where they tell us the expected PBT, surprised not more interest in this. Especially with EBITDA guidance (proxy for cash generation) for following years too.

[eddie1980] 05/11/2012 06:26

I certainly hope so. Is that just chart talk? Always thought that the movement in this was on such low volume. And results going to look great. Better than opg I reckon, which is amazing for first proper year of trading.

[john09] 04/11/2012 13:19

Looks like these will fly up tomorrow!

[eddie1980] 23/10/2012 10:58

Holdings RNS explains the upward movement - additional 3m shares purchased. Doesn't seem like that many even traded tbh.

[eddie1980] 22/10/2012 09:00

expect this to have a run to at leat IPO price. It has basically delivered on what it initially set out to do so execution risk has been removed. H1 profit looks amazing, very interested in what the detail shows froom results of basically their first full period of trading.

[eddie1980] 18/10/2012 14:56

ticking away nicely this one on equally ridiculous volumes as on the way down. I switched to spreadbets, and increased holding at prices between 48 and 55 so good to take the CGT losses and enjoy tax free rises!

[johncsimpson] 05/10/2012 12:51

Good decision so far since I bought 75k BPC @ 4.41 when they were 18+% down. Also bought 250k in TOM at 1.38.

Lost over £3k on MYT but sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and move on.

[eddie1980] 05/10/2012 10:18

Yep, no one likes related party transactions.

You get the feeling its like, crikey we are going to make good money, I want more for me rather than all the shareholders. I really don't understand these sort of transactions as the founder must have such a large slice anyway. They need the external funding markets to really grow so everyone benefits. This just seems like they want something extra.

Anyway, was signed off by other directors, and maybe this is more about him having the control and ability to develop other assets outside Mytrah, rather than rip Mytrah off with the actual charges which will be made to the company. As the development team grow, it does mean the intrinsic value of that knowledge will be outside of Mytrah.

[johncsimpson] 05/10/2012 09:07

This was forwarded to me last night and my charts have stopped looking quite so rosy.

--------------------------------

Despite some delays in commissioning, tariff increases have seen Indian wind power developer Mytrah achieve 75-80% of their annual internal forecasts in the first five months of what has been a 'good wind year.'

Mytrah is planning to take its total asset base to over 600 MW during 2013 giving the company the ability to generate an EBITDA of $120m-$140m, a base on which to build up an asset base of 250-350MW without further recourse to shareholders. In order to reduce Mytrah's direct costs it has chosen to outsource project development to Bindu Urja Infrastructure Private Limited, a company in which Ravi Kailas, the Chairman and CEO of Mytrah Energy Limited, is the sole beneficial owner.

Although this arrangement has been approved by independent directors it is bound to raise questions about Kailas's priorities and is not the sort of thing that investors like.

ends -----------------------------

I sold two lots of 5,000 first thing this morning and that's me out . . .

[eddie1980] 04/10/2012 15:28

Well, i'm sure this will move up as quickly as it moved down. Such little trading of this stock causes such movement that I take the short term price movement or position with a pinch of salt.

Probably of less interest to you, but the company needs to get some results out with substantial activity within so it can be seen what the company is actually doing and then there should be enough volume of trading to see whats it worth (be it more or less). That wont come till Christmas, but there does seem some momemtum behind a number of Indian energy stocks at the moment.

Company is lucky to have £10k of trades most days which is ridiculous.

[eddie1980] 04/10/2012 15:28

duplicate post.