Mytrah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 08:38

Hello Eddie,

I'm just a trader so much of what you write is outside my understanding but it's interesting and you sound rather chipper . . .

Proof of the puddling is MYT is moving up. Another 20p and I'll be break even.

[eddie1980] 01/10/2012 17:10

EBITDA is used as a proxy for cashflow from operating activities, so currently they think they will produce £37.5m-£43.75m (1.6 $:£) on an annual basis. That is some inflow from the current investment.

I think it is a little vague on whether the next 270MW can be funded with the current senior debt/mezzanine finance (it does state it will be, just not whether by new debt), so am very interested to see H1 results for interest cost.

H1 PBT estimated at £6.25m-£7.5m, so assuming £18.75m cashflow, thats £12m interest and depreciation. (of course we have not had a full six months of the 316MW in 12-13 so £12m is prob too high for interest/depreciation.)

Given minimum of say 6.25m*2=12.5m PBT for a full year on current production, this looks very cheap at mkt cap of £92m (assuming 163m shares)

On 600MW, profit is doubled, or greater if current equity finance can cover the expansion.

[eddie1980] 01/10/2012 10:17

Didn't read the ops update on Friday in detail. Some serious cashflows being state once 600MW up and running next year.

Not so sure about the outsourcing of all staff to a connected company. Have seen this on so many occasions with connected companies trying to strip out profits. Its like being majority shareholder is not enough slice of the pie for the CEO.

[johncsimpson] 28/9/2012 09:09

Profit takers moving in . . .

edit: should, of course, have been - 'moving out'.

[johncsimpson] 28/9/2012 08:45

Fair cruisin . . . wait till the big boys cotton on. This'll fly. 200p by Christmas. (Just thought I'd ramp it up a bit).

[eddie1980] 27/9/2012 14:01

more interested in this half though. Rules state interims should be within 3 months so at least we don't have long to wait for those!!

[eddie1980] 27/9/2012 14:00

Great, although technically they should have suspended the share as I think they are required to distribute the accounts prior to the AGM which should have been within 6 months. Still, good that they are coming, was going to sell up today if no progress.

(called the company this week - whoever answered did not even understand what I was on about!)

[johncsimpson] 27/9/2012 08:31

Hey. Whaddayerknow? Moving up again . . .

Added 8:44: Prelims Mon 1st October.

[eddie1980] 24/9/2012 07:48

Where are the results!? These were due on Friday I believed. Company only has 6 months to release results so they have to come this week (or suspension I guess.)

[john09] 07/9/2012 20:06

Some volume today. I'll keep an eye on volume in coming trading sessions

[eddie1980] 05/9/2012 14:02

Definately does need some news (results). I suspect this is also hit by general problems/concerns of payments by Indian state leccy boards to the independant power producers (i.e. they are not paying)

This is also a worry for OPG, as their year end debtors show £17m compared to 40m odd sales for year. OPG even state 14 day is normal payment term and then fail to explain why their debtors are 38% of annual sales!

A few articles knocking about on this problem

AIM rules are 6 months from year end, so its accounts by 30 September or suspension!

[john09] 05/9/2012 12:29

Still going. When are results due? Just wondered if this needs some news either to bottom it once and for all or or turn it around

[john09] 03/9/2012 21:10

Yep. Il keep watching. Plenty of good places to put money at the mo. do you have any kind of forecasts for this one by chance?

[eddie1980] 03/9/2012 10:13

I also think it is being punished (or rather the lack of interest) for being a new company .

We can't really say 'oh it is doing as well as it has being so no reason for the drop' as it hasn't posted any (meaningful)results yet (and even these first results will miss a lot of the new capacity)

[eddie1980] 01/9/2012 20:59

6% on 20,000 shares, so £10k sale loses millions off mkt cap. As long as its not going bust, it will rise as quick as it has fallen given positive news.

[john09] 31/8/2012 12:26

Still dropping this one. That's the problem with small growth stories sometimes unfortunately

[eddie1980] 28/8/2012 11:59

Interesting 3 page article on Mytrah (From April, but does discuss in detail the company's long term plans/ambitions, and how they attempting to achieve this)

[eddie1980] 21/8/2012 08:59

I really don't think that the current share price is related to the entities performance - it moves 5% on 7000 shares. I bought another small amount at 52.5 around 2 weeks ago.

They achieved their (debt) funding requirements, which was quite an achievement, have agreed large, long term agreements with suppliers for the turbines, we have had recent price increases which I assume were not factored into their feasibility calcs at outset (I certainly hope they weren't), and they actually managed to roll out production at an impressive rate (albeit slightly behind their stated ambition.)

John - relatively quiet on the board. Same people gushing their praise from 30-50p then they disappear. assume just enjoying the range and trading it.

[johncsimpson] 14/8/2012 19:43

I added today. Takes my book cost to £11k-ish and market value to £6k-ish.

My biggest percentage loser this year . . .

[john09] 06/8/2012 14:55

I seem to be barred from that OPG thread annoyingly. I clearly upset whoever was the author!

Hows it going over there - i assume people happy with share price performance recently

[eddie1980] 06/8/2012 14:32

Article from OPG board. Recent power problems preventing producers from selling their leccy!

Focus on coal costs and requirements for imported coal which MYT avoids (which is a bonus)

[eddie1980] 01/8/2012 16:51

I have 4 times amount in OPG than this. I do like MYT though, as they seem to make very good progress as a new company. As said, just need to see some results now with their power online. They also should benefit from recent increased tariffs, and think their recent update stated prices of 5.6 something (from 5.3 odd, so this should fall to bottom line.)

It is highly leveraged, (think they managed to raise $300m to fund expansion), but then this may be part of why it is marked down if higher risk. Again, some numbers will alleviate some concerns over this if they show good income and cashflow coming in.

[johncsimpson] 01/8/2012 08:09

So what chance the power cuts in India these last few days having a positive impact here?