Mytrah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 31/7/2012 15:21

Yep worth watching but won't buy when it's falling like this. Good luck with it. Are you in OPG and MYT equally out of interest or do you favour one over the other at these prices?

[eddie1980] 31/7/2012 15:18

Results last year were not out until September, so not overly concerned on that.

They have been pretty good actually with trading updates on progress (better than OPG for instance), with last update in May that within 60 days, would have 330mw odd of power with 60Mw behind that, so expect them to be at 390mw by half year which is not bad. They had aimed for 1000mw by march 2013, but given they missed the 500mw by this year, they have not updated their next target so nto sure where they are with that.

I think that once results come in, this will be getting to very good cheap status. OPG made £7.5m odd from 77mw at 90% capacity. Wind is roughly quarter of that, so would need 310mw for same output which it is has. Current price is putting mkt cap at not far over £80m, so current PE of 11 say on annualised basis already (which is ahead of OPG for instance)

This is obviously very simplistic, as costs are different (higher costs for wind so greater depreciation, but no input costs such as coal), but it does look good value. As you say, results would be useful to see progress (tho I thnk H1 2012-13 will tell more)

[john09] 31/7/2012 14:42

I've just been catching up on news for ths stock. On the plus side there has been lots of director buys in 2012 . In fact nearly all of the RNS this year have been about a director purchase at levels double todays price which bodes well.

On the negative side , the last actual financial results were 22nd December their half yearly report. So it's been a full 7 months plus since any kind of financial news. Their end of year was March And last year there was a trading statement in June.

Last day of July today and there hasn't been any financials out of this one in the entire 2012 as far as a I can see. If I was a holder I'd be mailing the company and asking them for a date.

[john09] 31/7/2012 13:35

Glad I'm not in this. Hate it when a stock drops like this on low volumes. No idea where bottom is when it makes fresh lows like this. Sorry to holders

[johncsimpson] 31/7/2012 13:23

Absolutely incredible - I'm sorry I posted first thing but at least when I top / add up it'll be even cheaper.

[eddie1980] 31/7/2012 11:25

Yet 90 minutes later it goes down 10% - typical!!

To be honest, this short term price movement is nonsense, as 27k share sales (so about £15k) has lopped £10m plus off the market cap - go figure.

Assuming all is well with the underlying business (and guess this is the point - it is difficult from the UK to know much about what is happening about the day to day running of the business), then these drops are crazy relative to the selling volume and justs shows how illiquid the share is. The plus is that very little volume should shift it back up as positive results come out.

[johncsimpson] 31/7/2012 08:00

A second cross-over appeared yesterday, and all three of the 'day indicators' I use are now in neutral, neutral / positive territory. (These are short term indicators). But then they've flaterred only to deceive before. However, this is as positive as it's looked for some weeks though until the indicators further improve I won't consider adding.

[johncsimpson] 18/7/2012 08:40

Hello Eddie - if you're still there. My charts for MYT don't count for anything. Although I use charts a lot, this is one of those shares for which the trading volumes are so low that the stats are generally useless. That said, we live in hope. The appearance of that cross-over on the chart above (where I've put the green circle) would normally be a positive move in conjunction with other indicators. Unfortunately the other indicators haven't materialised.

[eddie1980] 04/7/2012 13:27

What do these charts show?

[johncsimpson] 02/7/2012 13:02

I only have an interest here because I bought back in March / April when the price was about twice what it is now. A mistake but could this be the start of a reversal?

[johncsimpson] 23/6/2012 06:18

Hello Eddie - I keep looking at the thread but there's precious little to say. My charts look dire and I suspect it will take some positive news to alter the downwards run.

[eddie1980] 20/6/2012 16:19

MYT rumoured to be one of two bidders for DFL's 150mw of wind power assets.

Would take MYT to be India's largest wind power operator.

[eddie1980] 31/5/2012 16:27

more traded today than last 4 weeks! No news as far as I can see.

(must remember - never catch a falling knife)

[eddie1980] 18/5/2012 14:10

Rushed in with the buy today and didn't even see the update out this morning...

News

All senior debt secured. +++

Slippage on the installation of capacity. 334mw with 60 day, (so by end of July), then further 60mw (no date annouced), and then the next 100mw has dropped off completely.

They need to a) make these updates more clear!, and b) set realistic timetables to not disappoint the market.

still, slowly but surely they are going up, and there seems little risk to the company once they are up and running.

Edit - the last 100 (or 79 per the annoucement) has been postponed until prices rise (seems a bit odd to me - if they are expecting price rises, why not install so ready when they increase given they are already behind their schedule)

[eddie1980] 18/5/2012 12:08

ok, so bought 5k at 77p. Don't want too much in this in case weakness is due to Indian factors as have big stake in OPG.

[eddie1980] 18/5/2012 09:30

As far as I am concerned, the only uncertainty with this company was that they never confirmed the final tranch of senior debt they said they had all but secured.

They don't have input issues (coal, FX on imports) etc, so basically debt funding, and of course their general level of debt. Indian currency also going down depressing GBP earnings.

But this is such a new small company, I really do wonder how low these shares will go as it is shifting on such low volume (just as it rose from 90 recently on wafer thin volume.)

definately wait and see!!...

[johncsimpson] 18/5/2012 09:14

Very wise Eddie. Not a good time to be buying anything . . .

Charts are currently meaningless here in the current environment even though MYT was a buy tip in one of RHPS's sister publications.

[eddie1980] 18/5/2012 08:27

This is going down on incredibly low volumes - down 5% today on 10k shares.

I will be looking to take a position soon as I hope unpdate due by June of 500kw connected to grid.

Having seen OPG hammered to crazy low values tho, have some caution here.

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 16:57

Managed it at last.



I thought I had the thread to myself this morning but nice to see you're interested Eddie. It's not always the case – some posters on other threads I frequent are very anti chartists.

And I do not want any observations I make here to be construed as financial advice. They're not and if you read back you'll see I bought into MYT at completely the wrong time so what do I know? I've since added in the 96p area.

The last charts I put up here were over a month ago when I was worried that MYT might be in a 'double top' pattern. It was. I also suggested it might fall to the 100p area. It has. Only thing is it's now down to the 90p area so not good. There were two similar recent lows on 31st Jan and 22nd Feb. Next 'lower' point is the 84p area from 5th Jan 2012. Not what trading's about really - I've got it wrong twice when I shouldn't have!

Anyhow, enough soul searching but I wouldn't even consider another buy until after that MACD histogram goes green and a few other signals kick in and at the moment with all general worries across Europe (I'm thinking recent French and Greek elections) I'm avoiding new buys unless it's a share I know well like AVN .

[eddie1980] 09/5/2012 15:01

please do, find them quite interesting. Not invested here, but do keep my eye on the Indian energy plays.

MYT due quite a bit of news on new installations (if they have been completed on time!)

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 10:39

Tried to upload current chart but having problems. Will try later.

[johncsimpson] 29/3/2012 17:17

This is the double top I alluded to but no real problems if it stays at these levels - and is just consolidating . . . but if it falls below or through the 'purple' dashed line' we could see further retracement maybe as far back as 98/102. But it will take several sessions to see where the MACD is going and how long/far it will run.

[johncsimpson] 28/3/2012 16:27

Could be the double top I alluded to . . .

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 20:13

Close but not close enough so the prospect of a double top still holds.