Mwtops � Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 20/5/2003 14:11

COULD BE INTERESTING. A cross trade of 2.7% just went through at 193.5. Wonder who took them.

[skyship] 18/5/2003 00:49

Hi CURRYPASTY - As you might expect, my venture back into quoted property shares is to find a home for the cash released from some of the profit-taking in the SPLITS sector. My most successful investment there was in PIGZ - one of the few property splits.

I also posted this week about TIMING when buying into property shares. I posted it on the SLOU thread - pretty lonely there too, but extremely profitable with a 10% rise in SLOU last week alone!

TOPS is a different animal due to the effective control by the Goodman family. One day he'll tire of public company status; but until then I hope just to ride the occasional 10-15% thru' good timing.

Their shopping centre investments are 79% freehold / 21% long leasehold; and are primarily in the affluent North: Yorks 45% / Lancs 20% / Midlands 23% / W.London 11%, S.E. 1%.

[skyship] 16/5/2003 17:26

What goes around comes around! Bought back into TOPS @ 195p ahead of their Finals next month; & with the whole property sector now having a good run, perhaps TOPS will contribute a 10% turn over the next couple of months.

[skyship] 28/6/2002 11:34

Still following this one of course; missed a fleeting opportunity to get back in @ 186p a couple of days ago. Today's statement reveals three things of interest:

1. Diluted NAV + 9% to 357p. This v. the 370p I suggested at the top of this thread.

2. Dividend increase OK, but still shows a profound lack of consideration toward minority shareholders.

3. In Goodman's statement read the section entitled "Property Market Profile". This suggests a further good rise in NAV in the current year - not only for TOPS, but a clear indicator for many other property companies.

Overall, I will watch & wait on this one. At the moment I prefer the European property plays: CLI & IRE

[skyship] 14/6/2002 15:21

With a heavy heart sold the last of my TOPS @ 215 today. A net 16% turn in 4 months is still OK; though I was looking for more. With the market down nearly 200 points, good to add to the CASH reserves. Certainly not going to part with DJAN, and may now add to my CLI holding - this shake-out should be providing a few tasty morsels!!

[skyship] 23/5/2002 10:38

KAYAK - you were undoubtedly right with the timing on this one, however I am more than happy to buy @ 185p & see the shares creep ever so slowly to 192-200 (+8%) over the subsequent 3 months.

Now we are just about a month away from the next set of Finals; the next asset revaluation and perhaps even the opportunity to make a serious commitment to a more generous dividend policy. After all, if a share buy-back is out of the question due to the size of the Goodman family's share stake; then a more realistic payout is the very least the Board should be doing, there being very little point in having a dividend covered 3 times by distributable profits.

With the continuing strength of the property sector, TOPS still represents extremely good value on a 40% NAV discount.

[kayak] 27/2/2002 21:52

The discount on TOPS has ranged between 40 and 50% for the last three years at least, so I doubt it is going to close anytime soon...

[byrdsong] 27/2/2002 21:32

Many thx SKYSHIP.

The chart needs to show a breakout of course. I can't give a good analysis cos I haven't transferred tops to Metastock format yet - as its below £100M mkt cap - so I'm relying on ADVFN chart.

We are seeing the brickies breaking out from very low valuations. In this type of mkt the bigger land companies could even get close to NAV as about 4 or 5 years ago when I used to trade Land Secs trading options.

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out next time.

[skyship] 27/2/2002 20:20

Obviously not many people following this quieter corner of the booming property sector, however, I've just noticed something which could be truly significant in the rating of TOPS.

Here is what the Chairman of Trust of Property Shares plc stated with the final figures issued a couple of weeks ago:

“The property share sector does not yet have a reliable performance indicator and there are widely differing performances in market values within a sector which remains defensive. Property companies, including those constituent members of the F.T.S.E. 100 Index, despite strong growth and increasing net asset values, continue to trade at significant under-value. They do not have their merits appreciated and remain out of favour. In this regard, the heavy discount factor has persuaded the largest company in the sector, Land Securities, to implement a share buy-back programme, giving a positive message about asset values. A major recovery in the whole sector is both merited and awaited.”

So, it is obviously good news to read of someone in his position so wholeheartedly supporting the concept of a share buy-back – one of the very best methods available for restoring shareholder value. But of course, the real significance is that that statement was made by Everard Goodman, who happens also to be Chairman, Managing Director and effective controlling shareholder of…..TOPS Estates PLC.

If the TOPS finals in June aren’t accompanied by a Chairman’s statement introducing a share buy-back Scheme, then this is one shareholder who will be begging the question. With a NAV discount currently of 44%, but IMHO
at more like 50%, a Buy-back Scheme would have to narrow the discount to 35% or less – implying a share price rise to somewhere in the range of 213 – 240.

All implies a 20% gain in the offing – 225p the near term target.