Mountview Estates Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 13/1/2015 14:39

Interesting, chri5, that you're in the business.

Would it be fair comment on my part that regulated tenancy properties are usually kept to a pretty basic level of maintenance (ie. within the law but no gold bath-taps), so the potential uplift from refurbishment is disproportionate?

It did occur to me that Labour's proposed mansion tax would impact, but the carrying value of MTVW's trading properties is around £150,000 as opposed to a proposed tax threshold of £2m.

[chri5 wright] 13/1/2015 14:01

I am happy to be in this stock, long term. My background is that I run a much MUCH MUCH smaller version of this company, so I know its true value. I do suspect that it will come down on thin trading after such a climb ( which was also built on thin grains of sand ). I am not prepared to try second guess the peaks and troughs, I'm in and I'm staying in _ come what may...I'm just saying, it could well tank for a time, when news & excitement runs out. I hope it does.......as I have cash.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2015 13:02

Next leg up or sucker rally?

[greatgiginthesky] 13/1/2015 12:51

Happier now Chris? Up 425p as I type.

[jonwig] 13/1/2015 06:54

From the recent trades data the deal sizes here have been very small, so these are the people who bought on the way from around 75 on the back of tips in IC, Michael Walters, etc. Some have take profits, some are panicking. Typical behaviour I think, and the resistance on the chart should prove pretty solid.

Of course, there's the chance of a positive surprise (new CEO, bid) and they should issue an IMS in the first half of February ... all of three sentences last year!!

[chri5 wright] 13/1/2015 05:31

Because long ago I gave up the trading aspect of investing, I never managed to predict the peaks and troughs, and only made Redmayne Bentley rich. I buy and hold key companies only now. This is one, but I'm sure traders should get out. I will stay in, as a failed trader. Chris

[brahmsnliszt] 12/1/2015 20:35

Chris , out of interest, if you are convinced it will slip a long way down but u remain a long term holder, why don't u sell now and buy back a lot lower?

[chri5 wright] 12/1/2015 16:43

I knew this would come off the boil. my bet is it will slip down a long way now. anyhow. I am a long term ( disappointed ) holder.

Chris

[jonwig] 29/12/2014 11:59

greatgig - I'd think there are plenty of retired senior people who can manage companies in old age. (Also plenty who cause companies to die, but we won't be going there, I hope!)
And I'd think that's the sort we want, as younger ambitious ones will have too many bright ideas.

[greatgiginthesky] 25/12/2014 12:37

Been away for a month and nice to return to this board. Speculating:-

A new CEO would want an answer to the question: will I still have a job in 5 years time, or will the family sell out? That might be why there is no new CEO yet.

Grainger could afford to buy Mtvw - it's just a matter of price (i.e. the discount to NAV) and Grainger issuing new shares.

I can't recall seeing the word 'momentum' being applied to Mtvw's share price before, lol, but there is no harm in cashing in after the recent good run. I will continue to hold for the reasons that I don't see the share price plummeting from here (settling down a little maybe) and there is no chance of a reduced dividend. As I say, the share price has had a good run recently and I cannot but help thinking that there is an endgame in the offing. Maybe not in 2015, but if in the next 2 years then that will be quite quick in Mtvw terms.

GLA

[brahmsnliszt] 23/12/2014 12:13

Took some off the table last two days. Not sure if momentum is there in the short term

[chri5 wright] 18/12/2014 17:12

can I apply for the job....I have some experience!

how hard can it be to run this company- it probably runs its self?

chris

[jonwig] 18/12/2014 16:22

I think you can get a consistent pattern here: no family successor willing or able for CEO, established market gradually drying up, debate on future strategy (diversify, sell out, run-off), break up of concert party.

So far they have been shrewd and conservative in what they do, and staff turnover has been minimal. Diversification wouldn't be a suitable move,I think.

They had headhunters searching for a CEO, and maybe lack of progress is down to these strategy disputes. What's the saying? "The Mountie always gets his man". Maybe not in this case!

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/12/2014 16:18

Barring those few who have bought in recently, every shareholder is now stiing on a handsome profit, so it does beg the question...Now what?

[chri5 wright] 18/12/2014 10:29

jonwig. Thank you, yes of course the tax is only CT, not CGT, silly of me, thank you. I really cant see Grainger having the fire power, or the access to a lender that would be of help - as I say, Ii have been wrong before, and what do I know.

I could see Aviva, or daft as it sounds British Land. Not Land Sec however.

I agree strange re the ''hunt'' for a CEO. Given its a family business, you'd have thought it would have been a shoe in, from someone who had been groomed. Delay may mean that the hunt is unnecessary?

I hope not, as I don't seen a suitable new home for the funds I have in Mountie....

Chris

[jonwig] 17/12/2014 14:42

chri5 - tax is CT at 20% forward, not CGT, but -yes.

I was told at the AGM (by one of the auditors) that the valuation would be on an "as seen" basis - ie. pretty run-down (or "sub-optimal" to be more subtle). So you'd have reversionary value on refurbishing and sale. (How much - have no clue!)

As for Grainger, they are the biggest (or only) quoted company which does the same thing, and again they were mentioned informally at the AGM by one investor. I really can't comment on their appetite or abilities.

The value of run-off over a period for smaller investors such as me is that dividends would be tax free but a cash sale would lead to a huge CGT liability.

And no CEO appointment, despite the statement that they are looking hard.
Strange.

[chri5 wright] 17/12/2014 11:59

thanks, I looked at the old posts. I really cant see Grainger having the fire power, or the ability to raise funds. But ive been wrong before. I hope I am this time, as I do hold quite a few Mounties, and have done very well( most unlike me, as I usually miss the boat).

[chri5 wright] 17/12/2014 11:55

remember that there will need to be a discount to NAV, as tax will have to be paid on any asset sales.

intrigued, why is the notional £ 160 per share too low? - what figure is about right?

[jonwig] 16/12/2014 18:44

chri5, who would bid? See posts #103, #110 for suggestions.

Alternative - run-off with return of capital. Doubled interim dividend suggests this might have started.
Earnings will accelerate in the near term (tenant mortality) but tail away as profits are realised.

Remember, restatement of trading properties doesn't include any further reversionary value on vacant possession. So notional £160 per share is too low.

[chri5 wright] 16/12/2014 16:49

but who would bid? - a pension company - Aviva properties maybe?

[eggbaconandbubble] 16/12/2014 15:54

Looks like the bid's on the way, so that all the ageing major shareholders have an out.

[rizzle] 16/12/2014 15:18

Nice article - can only help raise awareness of how this is still looking undervalued:

[brahmsnliszt] 16/12/2014 14:16

Wow. Loving this ride

[chector177] 12/12/2014 23:15

I'm lovin it, lovin it, lovin it!!!!

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/12/2014 16:24

Looks like people still willing to buy. Looking at the trade prices, It looks like even those marked down as sales are most likely to be buys.