Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[nick2412] 09/1/2017 15:38

A few false starts but showing signs of life. In the link above, the CEO mentions another Nasdaq listed stock and draws to their market cap of circa $300m and invites comparison with MTFB's valuation who he is says are only 'slightly behind' in terms of development / trials. I took part in the funding and sold as it drifted but bought back in because at some stage as it approaches the data from the phase 3 trial in the 2nd qtr it looks set to have a significant run.

[pjj71] 09/1/2017 12:11

Nice new coverage in the US

Injecting New Life Into Iclaprim; Initiating Coverage at Buy and $16.00 Price Target (Rodman & Renshaw)

[runwaypaul] 04/1/2017 14:26

support should start kicking in

[vulgaris] 30/12/2016 16:24

Mirako-

Thank you for your courtesy

There's no scientific cross read from Motif/iclaprim to Cempra/solithromycin. The antibiotics belong quite different chemical classes and the one predicts nothing for the other. That said, there may be an emotional read through that affects investment. Solithromycin's unhappy situation reminds prospective buyers that all companies with one or two antibiotic candidates are a high risk punt...

As for reading --- results of trials tend to be be released at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Disease; ASM's Microbe meetings (previously ICAAC) and the Infectious Disease Soc of America's 'ID Week'..... but can come out of the blue, as with Achaogen's recent and positive data on plazomicin. Trial progress can be followed to a degree on clinicaltrials.gov. Otherwise go to PubMed (just Google the name) and then look for reviews on developmental antibiotics.

Small Crow, Bill Gates and the Guardian and others are right to point out that there is a real need for new antibiotics to combat the problem of resistance to existing ones. But it's salutary that AZ, who managed to license a new agent (ceftazidime-avibactam, Avicaz) active against some highly-resistant bacteria have lost enthusiasm and sold non-US rights, along with the rest of their antibiotic portfolio, to Pfizer at an unambitious price.

[mirako] 30/12/2016 14:03

@VulgarisDo you see any read across for Motif from Cempra?And can you suggest any reading to better understand this area?Many thanks for your well-informed posts.

[small crow] 30/12/2016 12:33

hxxps://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/30/bill-gates-world-decade-risk-antibiotic-resistant-diseases

[vulgaris] 30/12/2016 09:53

Apropos solithromycin/Cempra.

FDA's advisory board voted 7:6 in favour of licensing, but FDA is not bound by that and say that they cannot approve application in present form-

As you say, there are tox issues plus injection site irritation, also issues that Cempra were subcontracting manufacture to Wockhardt of India, with whom FDA have other problems, though that can be resolved by appointing a different manufacturer.

Prabha Fernandes, who was CEO & President --- and a very forceful lady--- has stepped down. I think that tells a lot.

But, whether a license is ultimately given or not, this looks deeply wounded as therapy for CAP. There are a lot of other drugs, including moxifloxacin which was the comparator in the trials, that are equally effective and have fewer issues. At best solithromycin for CAP will become one of those drugs you use a for a few odd patients in whom everything more standard is contra-indicated for one reason or another. [Welcome to the world of quinupristin/dalfopristin, telavancin and telithromycin etc.]

Solithromycin still has an ongoing trial in gonorrhoea, where there is a genuine shortage of effective antibiotics. Use here is oral (so no injection site irritation) and single dose (which should minimise liver tox, I'd have thought, though I'm not expert on this). So, if the trial succeeds, solithromycin may be license-able for this role, though Cempra won't make much money out of single dose Rx in clap clinics.

Cempra are also seeking, under the GAIN Act, to develop and license fusidic acid in the USA for bone & joint infections. It has been on the European market for years and it's hard to think these trials will hit anything untoward, other than fusidic's notorious propensity to select resistance to itself.

[patviera] 28/12/2016 09:47

We will rally towards 30 to 35p pre the trial results

[keya5000] 27/12/2016 10:24

I think the 'quiet period' end in the USA will be critical here.

This holds a great story and now their clients are loaded with MTFB shares I am sure the professionals involved in the process will begin to get that message out.

[patviera] 24/12/2016 17:14

Timbo I had to cancel my meetWhy did he say anything interesting?

[timbo003] 24/12/2016 09:29

Thanks love&£

That is useful no know, I briefly met with GL on December 6th in London and I have been reluctant to say anything about that on here until the company were out of Purdah, which now seems to be confirmed as December 28th.

[loveandmoney1] 24/12/2016 08:44

hxxps://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/12/23/motif-bio-plc-s-mtfb-quiet-period-will-expire-on-december-28th.html

[keya5000] 21/12/2016 09:03

Set of tw@ts blueblood, deserve all they get.

[keya5000] 21/12/2016 08:55

adorling, that makes sense then.

Looking good here and I reckon blueblood is on the money with that comment.

[blueblood] 21/12/2016 08:53

Nice to see recovery in share price as predicted with green shoe options expiry on Friday and shorts closing. Expecting to see 28p placing price by New Year's Eve and over 40p in Q1 on build up to phase 3 readout....dyor!

[adorling] 20/12/2016 18:32

PatvIera and Kenya - I have a US $ account with Schwab so dealing is easy, cheap and if I repatriate $ into £ I make a nice 18% currency exchange gain from when I last deposited sterling (pre-Brexit £ drop). The US have a good appetite for this type of Company and antibiotic development has commanded premium valuations as per GL podcast recently.

[adorling] 20/12/2016 13:14

What is our next expected news RNS?

[patviera] 17/12/2016 15:48

KeyaAgreed although I think the dollar gets stronger and the euro continues to fallOnly worry here is overhang of stock from placing Otherwise great buying level 22 to 24p

[keya5000] 17/12/2016 10:09

patviera,

Not sure it makes sense unless you have a US$ account to receive the sale proceeds in and US$ region to spend that cash in.

Buying US side with a UK broker will include a margin on the rate (unless you already hold dollars) and likewise when you sell (again unless you keep it in dollars).

You would also question buying the ADR's with the dollar being so strong.

Not sure unless you are US based it makes any sense at all?

Buying MTFB does though!

[patviera] 17/12/2016 09:10

Well done adorlingGood idea as that equates to 23.4 and we were 24 bid most of afternoon Always a small discount out in states but selling has dried up thereStill a small overhang in UK but should trade up towards 28p when the conference starts as interest builds I like percentages and I think this is a 80 pct that we have positive trials and a 75p share price The market for our antibiotic will be huge so even more potential upside after thatLumsden came across v well on the podcast and I'm a very happy holder