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Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1051 to 1072 of 1075 messages
|It's quite remarkable how this stock is NOT performing given the global struggle to find effective antibiotics to combat more efficient virus's. According to many sources a global pandemic on the scale of 1918 Spanish flu outbreak is imminent. That flu outbreak alone killed 18 million people yet we still ignore the obvious. The planet is over crowded and we do not have the means to fight a serious resistant virus.
|This week (from 9 Jan) includes the 35th JPM Morgan Annual Healthcare / Anti-Infectives Partnering meeting.
Reasonable to expect (as with all medical conferences) a degree of noise in the area.|
"So I think at the minimum we are anticipating several hundred million dollars worth of peak year revenue for Iclaprim once we come to market"
|A few false starts but showing signs of life. In the link above, the CEO mentions another Nasdaq listed stock and draws to their market cap of circa $300m and invites comparison with MTFB's valuation who he is says are only 'slightly behind' in terms of development / trials. I took part in the funding and sold as it drifted but bought back in because at some stage as it approaches the data from the phase 3 trial in the 2nd qtr it looks set to have a significant run.|
|Nice new coverage in the US
Injecting New Life Into Iclaprim; Initiating Coverage at Buy and $16.00 Price Target (Rodman & Renshaw)|
|support should start kicking in|
Thank you for your courtesy
There's no scientific cross read from Motif/iclaprim to Cempra/solithromycin. The antibiotics belong quite different chemical classes and the one predicts nothing for the other. That said, there may be an emotional read through that affects investment. Solithromycin's unhappy situation reminds prospective buyers that all companies with one or two antibiotic candidates are a high risk punt...
As for reading --- results of trials tend to be be released at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Disease; ASM's Microbe meetings (previously ICAAC) and the Infectious Disease Soc of America's 'ID Week'..... but can come out of the blue, as with Achaogen's recent and positive data on plazomicin. Trial progress can be followed to a degree on clinicaltrials.gov. Otherwise go to PubMed (just Google the name) and then look for reviews on developmental antibiotics.
Small Crow, Bill Gates and the Guardian and others are right to point out that there is a real need for new antibiotics to combat the problem of resistance to existing ones. But it's salutary that AZ, who managed to license a new agent (ceftazidime-avibactam, Avicaz) active against some highly-resistant bacteria have lost enthusiasm and sold non-US rights, along with the rest of their antibiotic portfolio, to Pfizer at an unambitious price.|
|@VulgarisDo you see any read across for Motif from Cempra?And can you suggest any reading to better understand this area?Many thanks for your well-informed posts.|
FDA's advisory board voted 7:6 in favour of licensing, but FDA is not bound by that and say that they cannot approve application in present form- http://investor.cempra.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1005708
As you say, there are tox issues plus injection site irritation, also issues that Cempra were subcontracting manufacture to Wockhardt of India, with whom FDA have other problems, though that can be resolved by appointing a different manufacturer.
Prabha Fernandes, who was CEO & President --- and a very forceful lady--- has stepped down. I think that tells a lot.
But, whether a license is ultimately given or not, this looks deeply wounded as therapy for CAP. There are a lot of other drugs, including moxifloxacin which was the comparator in the trials, that are equally effective and have fewer issues. At best solithromycin for CAP will become one of those drugs you use a for a few odd patients in whom everything more standard is contra-indicated for one reason or another. [Welcome to the world of quinupristin/dalfopristin, telavancin and telithromycin etc.]
Solithromycin still has an ongoing trial in gonorrhoea, where there is a genuine shortage of effective antibiotics. Use here is oral (so no injection site irritation) and single dose (which should minimise liver tox, I'd have thought, though I'm not expert on this). So, if the trial succeeds, solithromycin may be license-able for this role, though Cempra won't make much money out of single dose Rx in clap clinics.
Cempra are also seeking, under the GAIN Act, to develop and license fusidic acid in the USA for bone & joint infections. It has been on the European market for years and it's hard to think these trials will hit anything untoward, other than fusidic's notorious propensity to select resistance to itself.|
|We will rally towards 30 to 35p pre the trial results|
|I think the 'quiet period' end in the USA will be critical here.
This holds a great story and now their clients are loaded with MTFB shares I am sure the professionals involved in the process will begin to get that message out.|
|Timbo I had to cancel my meetWhy did he say anything interesting?|
That is useful no know, I briefly met with GL on December 6th in London and I have been reluctant to say anything about that on here until the company were out of Purdah, which now seems to be confirmed as December 28th.|
|Set of [email protected] blueblood, deserve all they get.|
|adorling, that makes sense then.
Looking good here and I reckon blueblood is on the money with that comment.|
|Nice to see recovery in share price as predicted with green shoe options expiry on Friday and shorts closing. Expecting to see 28p placing price by New Year's Eve and over 40p in Q1 on build up to phase 3 readout....dyor!|
|PatvIera and Kenya - I have a US $ account with Schwab so dealing is easy, cheap and if I repatriate $ into £ I make a nice 18% currency exchange gain from when I last deposited sterling (pre-Brexit £ drop). The US have a good appetite for this type of Company and antibiotic development has commanded premium valuations as per GL podcast recently.|
|What is our next expected news RNS?|