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Molins Share Discussion Threads
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|Molins were presenting last night somewhere so maybe the message has gone down well with someone. With the new management this might have a future.|
Sorry for the late reply. Yes, the age of the factory, machinery and equipment.
Just click this link to Investopedia: hxxp://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/assets/fixed-asset-disclosures.asp
All the info. is on the page.|
I admit I'm not sure what you mean about the age of the assets: are you referring to the age of a Factory or machines? Is this an average figure? How would you calculate it?
Could you explain more?|
If Molins is the only machine-maker for their clients then they can maintain current capex spending. But, what I'm referring to is the age of its assets. At 14 years, it is two to three years above average.
For example, you can maintain your flat screen TV for a long time by going to the repair shop each time, but sooner or later it will completely break down and you would need to buy a new one.
Plus, Molins is not a super competitive business, based on earnings, growth and margins. So, the conclusion is they need to invest big to compete like in 2003.
Molins is smaller today than in 2003, so I estimate a £10m capex.
Anyway, only time will tell.
And thanks for your thoughts.|
|Gilt yields are a proxy for the discount rate used to calculate the present value of future pension liabilities. An increase in gilt rates and thus the discount rate used leads to a decline in the calculated present value of liabilities. This is why the pension déficit has declined since the last report.
Note: increses is UK bond yields reflect a DROP in the value of bonds and will hence depress the asset value of that part of Molin's pension assets.
Only if the pension fund was wound up, all current and future pesnioners paid off in full would any surplus accrue to the company. I cannot remember any such event in the UK. It won't happen.
Capex at Molins outstrips depreciation which has been around 3m per year for the last 10 years. I'm surprised you think they are liable to Shell out 10m next year. Are you aware of any particular project?
PS I'm not a holder.|
|Maturing business Molins is struggling to grow.
Revenue is 33% smaller today, then 2004. Market valuation decline by 80% since 2003. Are Molins shares still value for money?
Molins management made a recent trading update suggesting the poor results is for last year. Because customers were delaying orders till 2017.
The second good news is their pension situation. With the UK Bond Rates (known as the 10-year Gilts) rising. Their assets pay more in cash flow to Molins retirees.
The downside to Molins is capital expenditure. Because they haven’t spent big for a long time. Molins asset age in 14 years (is a record), and 60% of their assets meet that age.
Their last big spend was in 2003 at £13.6m. Since 2009, Molins average £4m in CAPEX. Don’t be surprised if they spend £10m.
On share price, Molins could average 80 pence per share in 18 months. But, don’t be surprised if it falls back to 40 pence because of the markets at all-time highs.
For more read: http://bit.ly/2mwmyrh|
|Thank you hannahh.
Will there be a recording of the presentation for those unable to attend on the day?
|If you would like to hear Tony Steels, Chief Executive, present on behalf of Molins he will be appearing at our next investor forum on the evening of Wednesday 29th of March. Also appearing will be the management of Watkin Jones and Accrol.
To learn more about the forum and to register for free please follow this link: hxxps://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/equity-development-investor-forum-march-2017-tickets-32226603639
The Equity Development team|
|looks like the pension situation has knackered the dividend|
|New research out today from Equity development
|Cheers Joe. I've just learned from you. Thanks for the feedback.
I'm hoping Molins can now improve the trading situation as this prior pension niggle looks fine once again and hopefully with the rate cycle turning upwards won't come up again but as you suggest possibly relieve them of any future funding commitments which can be used to invest in the company instead.|
Just to correct one point in your post - the pension scheme surplus/deficit included in the balance sheet numbers is based on the yield on corporate bonds not gilt yields. The corporate bond yield is higher than the gilt yield because they are higher risk but the 2 rates do tend to move in tandem.
Having said that I look at how the 10 year gilt yield is changing to get a feel for what is likely to be happening to the pension scheme funding position because I find it much easier to get up to date and historic numbers for the gilt yield (if anyone knows of a free website that shows the relevant UK corporate bond rate I would be grateful!).
As far as I am aware it is nigh on impossible for a company to get any pension fund surplus paid back even if it is enormous. If all parties agree, it can stop paying contributions if the surplus is considered to be more than adequate to meet the pension obligations, but the surplus has to be massive relative to the potential obligation for this to happen (SIXH is a company which is in this happy but unusual situation).
I'm not trying to nit pick with your post. I just thought that if anyone compares the current gilt yield to the discount rate used to calculate the pension scheme balance sheet position in the last set of accounts they will think that the next results will show a large deterioration.|
|The Pension hole could now be a surplus.
The liabilities are calculated from Gilt Yields at the time and I'm no expert on why it's done this way, but Gilt Yields have rallied from the historic lows of that time.
It's possible the next valuation may show a surplus and if Government bonds continue to fall in value and yields rise, then so will the pension surplus in future valuations.
Now, if the company can have any of that surplus paid back to it somehow, that would be very interesting, but I don't know if that is possible. At least i'm quiet certain from how I understand things that there is now no black hole based on current gilt yields.
Please explain if i'm mistaken. cheers.|
|As a holder I am very pleased to see the unexpected rise today on no discernible information. The reason for the rise, we can only speculate. My guess is that with the fall in the pound it has become a potential takeover target. The Chinese are still keen smokers and possibly see the company as a viable prospect. Who knows, I am just guessing, I have no inside knowledge.|
|Rising ! What's the story ?|
|MASSIVE PENSION HOLE
Molins PLC, the international engineering and services company, announces the following trading update for the financial year to 31 December 2016.
Trading to date in the final quarter has been materially lower than expected, partially due to an unfavourable sales mix and a number of deliveries delayed into the early part of 2017. As a result the Board is revising downwards its expectation of full year performance.|
|there is the 5% plus yield?
|The lad at ED thinks they might. But confidence in this is so low that there are simply no buyers at any price. The forward multiple on those forecasts would be 3x.
This company lost its way years ago and has not got it back............|
|Molins delivered adjusted EPS of 22.4p (with 5.5 divi) and 15.1p respectively for 2014 & 2015 - so if things were ever to return to normal.....|
|With hopeless management there is little hope of a business turnaround so it seems to be a binary bet on the pension being sorted out or not. Could be interesting.......|
|Pathetic stuff from Molins as usual. The list of excuses is never ending. The dope at Equity Development is paid to write positive copy. He thinks Molins will make 18p of earnings in 2018-clearly no one believes it.|
|New research out this morning from Equity development
Evil talks about MLIN|