Modern Water Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 21/3/2016 09:33

Management change has helped.
Humphrey has a lot of stock that is worthless. Will need new options.

No director buys is telling, they are as blind as the rest as they were buying at 30p area bit not now?? Holding fire for a funding round to avoid dilution? They would know.

It might even go under, no guarantees and stranger has happened.

Until they get sales traction this is pure speculation.

[ohisay] 21/3/2016 08:58

I've stuck my toe in for 15k - even with all the caveats EV seems far too low.This is just the kind of stock to have a "left field" event.
And change in mgmt here a big factor for me.

[argylerich] 21/3/2016 08:08

Agreed on all counts,but I just can't see how they can survive long enough until revenues start coming in.
As you've shown Gib is far from smooth and actually costing money short term.To expect to be able to use revenue from that to support the company is hopeful in the extreme.
Even this Indian pilot is going to cost short term with no guarantees.
To be fair to the new management, the destruction was under McD (although there's still several faces in post who need to look at what they've actually delivered ).

[p1nkfish] 21/3/2016 07:47

It's a catch-22 for them.
How to attract new money.

My thought is on them being imaginative especially given the FD's background.

With outgoings cut to the bone they have some breathing space.

Coming back for more cash soon would only illustrate the total destruction of value so far.

Their record is abyssmal.

[argylerich] 21/3/2016 07:42

That's exactly why I'm not buying back in yet ;-)

[p1nkfish] 21/3/2016 07:37

Fundraising at this share price would be a bad idea if they want to raise any decent amount.

About 37% is outside of notified interests. 40% outside of 3% holders.

IP and Henderson may be the most committed at about 31.5% between them, the othes might not take part.

In summary, massive haircut for most for a decent fund raising at this price or close to this price. At least McDougal will be diluted.

They either become imaginative or raise at a higher price. Why buy to see dilution - probably of 30%-60% at this sp?

[argylerich] 21/3/2016 07:13

Well they've got their Indian agreement to pilot.I'd be interested to see if Advent still retains their American connections which could be useful.
Another one of these for China and it would make a fundraising a lot easier.

[p1nkfish] 21/3/2016 00:42

28/1/15 - expectation was for an operational plant Sept 2016.
Won't happen by then and all the delays equal extra cost to MWG.
Should have already started.
Someone in Gib needs a poke with a sharp stick.
There were some new drain works needed too. May have hit delays there. Possible some electrics also.

[p1nkfish] 21/3/2016 00:23

Even Gib suggests the contract has been awarded. The new note of caution out of MWG might be down to push back on costs. MWG must have invested a fair amount already to get the tender and design sorted. Northumbrian water also say it has been won.

[p1nkfish] 19/3/2016 19:31

Spaniards need to get their act together. No use Gib treating waste if Spaniards are screwing up the waters.

[p1nkfish] 17/3/2016 22:39

Look at this pdf and search for 'Europa'.



'The Government of Gibraltar has commissioned an Urban Waste Water Treatment Plant to be built at Europa Point by 2017.'

[p1nkfish] 16/3/2016 21:12

Their tender won but then ratification needed that depends on dotting i's. Not sure but think it's to do with scope. Never trust Gov's. They play to the gallery and in this case trying to shut the EU up as Gib in breech of regs so need to be seen to do something but no rush to spend.

It's in writing in multple places to have it finished BY 2017 and elsewhere built IN 2017.

[argylerich] 16/3/2016 17:13

According to Northumbrian Water the contract was won in Oct 2014 Lol!

hxxps://www.nwl.co.uk/media-centre/611_4832.aspx

[p1nkfish] 16/3/2016 13:50

I think today has been cathartic for MWG. BS blown away. Could be a lot worse.
News due and might come from left field and not what is expected.

[p1nkfish] 16/3/2016 13:48

It's getting there, just not as quick or straight as ideal.

[p1nkfish] 16/3/2016 13:46

Reads as light on BS which is a positive. Cash better than I expected and funding further off than I expected. Get end of tax year out of way as some sales are probably to use up losses and then we see what's what in the market.

Each project to be individually financed case by case makes sense. Would like to consider equity share perhaps to de-risk some that are annuity type payers for 'x' yrs. I think the FD is capable of some creativity if allowed.

Very realistic write up on risks, another no BS positive.

[argylerich] 16/3/2016 08:50

PUG can only agree about funding, as you say, they are not allowed to reach the end of the runway so they need a massive increase in monitoring sales or funding.
Cannot see how they could pull cash sideways from Gib (if won) early in the project when it's a new line of business in itself.
For holder's sake I hope they can pull in a couple of positives soon and do the funding as efficiently as last time. The IP has kept investors loyal and this management should be given their chance.
I think this one will come good, it's just a matter of when.

[norbert colon] 16/3/2016 08:48

Guys

Results clarify that "Cash as at 29 February 2016 was £3.0m" and "The Group's cash burn has reduced to £1.0m for the 6 months to the end of February 2016, and is planned to remain at this level through 2016 and 2017".

So in essence they have circa 12-18 months cash left although they clarify "the Group would need to obtain additional funding in the second half of 2017" should the Gib WW contract not come off.

Still lots of risk and uncertainty either way.

[pugugly] 16/3/2016 08:19

AR: I cannot improve on your comments above save only to note that (imo) they are going ot need to raise funds within the next 6 to 9 months unless a very significant increase in profitable sales or they will reach the end of the runway.


With significant order/sales they might be able to raise funds at a premium to the current share price otherwise I can see a massive haircut coming. (All imo dyor etc just my own thoughts No inside information)

[argylerich] 16/3/2016 07:44

Good progress in costs reduction but having to rely on tax credits and squeezing inventories to get them beyond mid/end 2017 until Gib is won/paying is too many 'ifs' for now.
With Monitoring still not turning a profit and the sales uplift purely from the container there's not enough to support Membranes yet.
Got to say I much prefer this management,and hopefully they'll pull in a couple of these commercialisation deals on the Membrane Brine side or get some Aquapak sales going.
If the price drops I may actually take a punt before.
GLA holders.

[p1nkfish] 15/3/2016 15:18

New President for the monitoring division. Douglas Workman.
Let's hope he can more than pay for himself.
MWG need a kicking to get this moving the way it should be.

Neil Townend - wonder what he will be doing or has he left?

They need good ditch diggers in sales in the US, not a bloated management structure.

[p1nkfish] 15/3/2016 08:27

A boring story short, DBB are only 94M euro at the moment but need to see growth. The carrot is the $80Bn and the push to rehabilitate existing plant as the way to see the quickest route to improved efficiency in desal. There is a need to achieve the same in the oil and energy sector too and there is a desal dependence there too.

DBB have IP that complements.

Also - take a look at the Aluminium industry over there and the problems they are facing and DBB previous work on that front.

They are starting to understand the value of the environment too and that effluent needs to be handled properly and not just dumped in the sea causing major die-offs. This effluent can be concentrated brine or trace metal - MWG useful for both.

A long path back to higher market cap but the past 12 months have been needed and a transformation is in process and well on the way.

[p1nkfish] 15/3/2016 07:17

Worth reading the below from January.
One of the quickest routes is upgrade of existing plant.

Also, they need to decrease salt concentrations in effluent as it can currently damage the environment. MWG have IP there too.