Mj Gleeson Share Discussion Threads

[the millipede] 04/4/2024 17:29

Interesting comments in IC about the land bank, and valuation, that I hadn’t considered before.

[siggs44] 28/3/2024 19:08

A 2 page spread on Gleeson in the Investor Chronicle magazine I received today. Very positive .

[indiestu] 22/3/2024 15:10

I wonder what the Chairman has overheard? I'm guessing results are going to be much better than the market anticipates. I hope so, I can't wait to ditch this boring but hopefully profitable position.

[disc0dave46] 15/2/2024 12:16

Liberum - That's a punchy target IMO particularly as they reduced this FY eps by 22% to 33p, a PE of 18x seems high (median for sector is 12). Was it 610 before the warning in Jan?.

[cerrito] 15/2/2024 08:29

I note Liberum retain target price at 610p and Singers at 590p.

[disc0dave46] 07/2/2024 09:49

Good question.Bovis and Galliford Try (now Vistry) went through okay from memory.

[cowie19] 07/2/2024 08:00

Redrow Barratt interesting move but will it be allowed?

[cerrito] 13/1/2024 18:32

Just seen this more upbeat view on Citywire
quote
MJ Gleeson (GLE) has announced a profit warning but Berenberg says the housebuilder and regeneration specialist is still in line with peers and can continue to win market share.

Analyst Harry Goad retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 518p on the stock, which was trading at 500p on Wednesday.

‘Profit warnings are never welcome and, while unexpected, the implied total decline in MJ Gleeson’s group margins in 2024 from the pre-crisis peak remains broadly in line with the wider UK housebuilder peer group,’ Goad said.

Over the mid-term, he said MJ Gleeson remains a top pick in the sub-sector ‘given its potential… for above-market growth’.

‘Specifically, we think its key proposition of developing good-quality family housing that is sold at prices materially below the UK market average positions it well for the current financially challenged market environment, where we think it can win market share from a new customer base over the coming years,’ he said.

[cerrito] 12/1/2024 10:35

Catching up here, I see that while Liberum are maintaining their target price at 610p they have reduced their eps for FY 24 and FY 25 by 22% and 26% respectively and also reduced their dividend forecasts.
Singers have reduced their target price from 626p to 590p ,reduced their forecasts by 24% and 27% for the two years but go on the basis of an unchanged dividend.

[disc0dave46] 10/1/2024 13:55

They reckon the average cost for the new building regs (June 23) is 5%.So taking glass half full, their selling price will no doubt include extra costs they haven't actually incurred by bringing starts forward..that's my take anyway.

[lafiamma] 10/1/2024 12:19

Cerrito,

Gleeson aren't the only ones who brought forward "starts".

Just look at the national number of Q2 starts (see the first table via link below, Table 213)

www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building

[indiestu] 10/1/2024 11:21

Uptrend seems to have remained intact. Guess it just wants to go up with the group. May as well ride it for 18 months.

[disc0dave46] 09/1/2024 14:24

Good luck folks. Given their broker has reduced earnings by 22% for this FY and 26% for the next im out. Luckily the recent rise has put me in profit for the first time in about 16 months.Going on broker forecasts this looks fully priced now IMO at a PE of 15x, the price to book is also above 1x. So I'm out for the time being anyway.

[disc0dave46] 09/1/2024 13:19

So November update they said inline with expectations and will update 11th Jan.How wrong could they have been!.

[cerrito] 09/1/2024 12:35

I had not heard of the advantages of starting a project by June 23 to avoid new building regs before, but perhaps reflects the fact that the only other builder I have shares in apart from GLE is BWY.is this something you folks have come across before?? .
All I can say is they must have v good relations with the planning departments of the councils involved to get all the conditions precedent before construction signed off so quickly ie the S106 ie The Transport Management Plan ie all the other bits of paper.
My plan this morning had been to top slice thid morning at c 530 but that obviously did not work out.

[indiestu] 09/1/2024 11:06

Surely costs of meeting stricter building regulations just get passed on to the buyer?

[lafiamma] 09/1/2024 10:19

Agree, I've sold out and hoping to buy back in nearer to 400p than 500p!

[liam1om] 09/1/2024 10:08

Was expecting this to open far lower today on that warning. If it wasnt for that large rise yesterday we would be in the low 400's.

[lafiamma] 09/1/2024 10:07

To avoid more costly building regs homes had to be started by June 2023 (i.e. just dig a foundation?)

So many of those homes started won't have been planned to be built and sold for several years, they just needed to be recorded as "started"

[indiestu] 09/1/2024 10:00

Reflecting the significant investment in bringing forward a higher proportion of home starts before June 2023 the Group will report net debt of GBP18.7m at 31 December 2023 (30 June 2023: net cash GBP5.2m). The cash impact of this investment is expected to unwind over the next two years.Stupid question. Why does it take two years to unwind the debt incurred from home starts before June 23? Are those home starts not sold? Seems a large shift in cash debt position over a short period.

[riverman77] 09/1/2024 08:11

This had really surged over past few days so not surprised to see it fall back a bit.

[lafiamma] 09/1/2024 07:57

On analyst call they're saying it translates to a 15-20% reduction Vs full year profit forecast

[cerrito] 09/1/2024 07:34

That is my reading

[lafiamma] 09/1/2024 07:31

Trading update has come out a couple of days early. Reads to me like a warning on margins, so expecting share price to drop in short term - anyone read it differently?