Minco Share Discussion Threads

[lendmeafiver] 09/8/2016 22:59

It's more like Dalradian NSR 3p, Zinc Assets 1p, cash and other assets 0.5p = 4.5p conservative valuation

[jdgeus75] 09/8/2016 12:04

@lfc4ever what would you consider undervalued? and what would you consider a fair valuation?

[lfc4ever] 09/8/2016 12:03

The worry is that they sell the Dalradian royalty at a price which, like the Pallas Green sale, we consider to be a gross undervaluation. (Can't believe that was 5 years ago!!)

[jdgeus75] 09/8/2016 10:22

Based on my previous post I will update my estimated Net Present Value of the royalty. I used $1300 gold, a 6% discount factor, 12 years of production with an average of 120.000 ounces per year. This results in a NPV of USD 24.85 million or GBP 19.13 million. If there will be an acquisition, I expect it to be at 0.65 - 0.75x NPV so in the GBP 12.43 - 14.35 million range (0.026 - 0.03 per share). This is not including Minco's other assets (GBP 2 million cash, GBP 1 million Xtierra, and a certain value for Buchans, Woodstock and the exploration properties)

[jdgeus75] 09/8/2016 10:14

I don't think the feasibility study itself will be a catalyst for Minco.
A recent Independent article about Dalradian Resources includes a couple of ''new figures''. (hxxp://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dalradian-hits-140m-lucky-streak-on-irish-gold-mine-34949994.html).

The PEA showed an average production of 163.000 ounces which results in annual turnover of USD 195 - 212 million depending on gold price (1200 - 1300). This article talks about GBP 120 million (USD 157 mllion) and 120.000 ounces. Since they have talked to Dalradian's Chairman Rutherford I think this article is preparing us for lower production numbers.

So I assume that Dalradian will focus on lower production and lower strip ratio to keep lower cash costs. Based on this article I think the feas will show a 12 or 13 year mine life at 120.000 ounces / year.

I think the catalyst for the Minco will either be the mining approval or an acquisition of the royalty by Dalradian (which may come before the feas to improve the economics of the feas).

Royalty cash flow in that scenario (at 1300 gold): USD 3.1 million / year.

[lendmeafiver] 09/8/2016 09:08

Dalradian share price in a real surge over the last two days, feasibility study can't be far away, maybe then the market will wake up to the significant link between the performance at Dalradian and impact on MIO.

[lendmeafiver] 05/8/2016 16:11

Agree, I really would like to think that by the end of this calendar year MIO will be valued something slightly more realistically, 2p Dalradian NSR, 1p Zinc Assets, 0.5p cash and near cash and other investments ie 3.5p ish would seem reasonable and hardly crazy valuations.

If gold, silver and zinc keep climbing then something like that will be extremely likely surely, especially with the PR around Dalradian and its Planning Application due Q3/Q4.

[sm9] 05/8/2016 15:19

Most of it not all of minco investments seems to be coming of value, which is good news as i think daldarian will buy minco share out sooner or later as its better to have absolute soll rights over a project so huge...massive cash coming our way hopefully.....and think managment have high hopes for buchans and with the chinese..exciting times.......

[jdgeus75] 05/8/2016 08:52

At 0.075 the XAG shares Minco owns (if they still own 30M shares) are worth 2.25 million Canadian Dollar.

[lfc4ever] 05/8/2016 08:19

25% rise in XAG

[jdgeus75] 04/8/2016 10:00

Someone just sold 1739 shares on the bid. Huge transaction. GBP 20 of shares. I guess he/she made a lot of money

[lendmeafiver] 03/8/2016 12:39

Very difficult to trade this stock, I have tried here and there on the way up but unfortunately the spread makes this a bit of a longer term hold really

[jdgeus75] 03/8/2016 11:22

I expect market makers will make some deals with people willing to buy in between the spread. Maybe a 500k transaction around 1.3 or so

[jdgeus75] 03/8/2016 11:19

Look at the spread. Bid 1.15 / ask 1.40. So market makers want to avoid transactions. They lock the market more or less. They lower the bid and make a small trade to let the share price look weak. They do not lower the ask so that buyers still pay 1.40.

[sm9] 02/8/2016 11:16

Yes, anytime now upto end of year, there should be good and exciting news flow..

[ardtole] 02/8/2016 10:58

Am I right in thinking that news from Buchans and Lundberg is due soon?

[bodgit] 01/8/2016 19:44

Zinc now at c. USD 1 per pound weight. Getting 'interesting' at that level. Good luck all.

[lendmeafiver] 31/7/2016 22:19

Agree on short term minimum price target of 2p to 3p, current market cap of £6.25m remains beyond cheap, Marthy maybe right that August is holiday season before things start happening at Dalradian. Like the Galway tip and enjoy the summer break.

[sm9] 31/7/2016 17:56

To right just a matter of time, 2-3p looks as a bare minimum, next few months hopefully will be great..

[bodgit] 31/7/2016 12:07

marthy, you tease you! Good luck all.

[marthy] 30/7/2016 14:47

This Mon is a Bank Holiday in Ireland so the rest of Aug should be very quiet with holiday time etc. You guys have my permission to take the month off but be sure to be back on Thur Sept 1st at 8am sharp when the fireworks begin. You are not to sell any share below 5p and that's that, unless very badly stuck for a few bob in which case I will forgive you. P.S. I got a great tip from a sensible jockey, at the Galway Races, which he said I could put my shirt on, The name - - - - - "clothesline"

[lendmeafiver] 29/7/2016 21:12

Gold also moving upwards again, the market will wake up to what MIO owns later this year.

[lendmeafiver] 28/7/2016 14:25

Yes Dalradian on the up, surely at the point of planning approval Dalradian will make an offer for the NSR.

[sm9] 28/7/2016 06:47

Excellent analysis, just shows what mio will worth minimum once news starts to filter through from daldarian, my 2-3p looks relatively low now....

[marthy] 28/7/2016 00:51

Dalradian up about 10 cents in Toronto Wed afternoon. That's worth 5 to 6 pennies in London so there should be a good jump in the share price on Thursday morning. Hope this gives Mio another nudge upward.