Midas Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 12/12/2006 07:58

the media luvvies just adore blue curve...

Mondas signs new contract for Blue Curve.

Mondas plc, the AIM listed Financial Markets software specialist has secured an
order to supply Ingenious Securities Limited with its market leading Blue Curve
research management software solution. The contract is for the supply of
licences, professional services and support...



Jarlath McGee, Chief Executive of Mondas said. 'Blue Curve is now the solution
of choice for many financial institutions and this is yet another example of the
tremendously exciting success the division has recently enjoyed.' 'We look
forward to working with Ingenious Securities to build and operate a highly
efficient research production platform that will bring them significant
operational benefits.'

Richard Jeffrey, Head of Securities said 'The Media sector creates significant
opportunities for Ingenious Securities and we intend to offer our clients a full
breadth and depth of research. Therefore, having a reliable and effective
solution like Blue Curve in place will be a major step towards achieving that
goal and supporting the ongoing rapid growth of our business.'

Mark Robertson, director, Mondas financial markets division commented: 'I am
delighted that Ingenious Securities, a new securities business focused on the
media sector has selected Mondas and placed its trust in the Blue Curve solution
for this very exciting and important project. This major new contract to provide
specialist advice and an effective software platform to support a rapidly
changing sector underlines the wide market appeal of the Blue Curve solution.'

[romeo] 06/12/2006 14:20

My thanks to all of the regular posters. Your ongoing input is much appreciated.

I have been patiently waiting like the rest of you, but I must say that I have never seen the company in a better position.

I firmly believe 2007 will be a very good year indeed for Mondas shareholders.

My Best Regards to All,

Romeo

[mollymolly] 04/12/2006 11:39

There is an air of optimism at Mondas.

I believe that the forecast will be met, and the "global rollouts" will, I think, give great credibility to the 2007 forecast.

We are now in the close period and so there will not be investor presentations, unless they are made insiders. Also there can be no more director buying.

December is a good month to sign deals, especially the bigger ones. Buyers naturally look at the year-end as a deadline which could get them a discount. I do, however, doubt that any large deal signed in December will add very much to 2006 numbers (except perhaps the sales of licences to an existing user). Any big deal signed now will be putting profit into 2007.

It makes sense to me that we should see a rise in the price. The p/e on 2007 earnings is 5 or 6 on the Sept T&G forecast. If we see forecast made for 2006 and confirmation of a decent story going forward we will see a dramatic re-rating in Jan.

[andy man] 30/11/2006 16:46

Overhang gone.

[johnboy8] 29/11/2006 11:32

Marie Time, any sight of land on the horizon?

[maty] 29/11/2006 08:04

sp moving up, could be good news

[mollymolly] 22/11/2006 12:22

Magpie,

I agree with George. Doubling from where we are now in next two months must be possible. A p/e of 18 is average, and some would argue too low for a Company with 30% growth.

To achieve that sort of price rise Mondas must deliver the 2006 forecast and must also give a convincing story to substantiate the 2007 forecast.

I expect a trading update as soon as the numbers for 2006 have been checked, and also an updated note from T&G. I hope for this mid Jan. Clearly the directors will then be in an excellant position to promote the shares. We are in the close period now so no investor presentations will be going on.

Through bitter experience Mondas holders are at present in "believe it when I see it" mode.

[gac141] 22/11/2006 11:24

Firstly Mondas is not going to be sold and break up value is a difficult figure to judge.

Mondas has received a very low PE purely based on large losses for 10 years and regular disappointments to the city and ourselves. T&G must have been extremely hacked off when Tim Simon announced the late profits warning going back several years. The average PE is 18 in this sector and I think we stand at 7-8. When we are confirmed the profits we will be re-rated.

George

[magpie99] 22/11/2006 10:41

George,

How can you be sure of this re-rating? Do you have contacts in the city who know this?

I am expecting a re rating to occurr also, and I am hoping everything goes to plan.

Molly's guestimates look convincing, but I have heard of software companies being boken up as a multiple of sales - 1.5 - 2 times sales.

Say Mondas' sales are £5 million annually then, I put the value on the company at £7.5 - £10 million, nearer to the current valuation.

Magpie

[gac141] 21/11/2006 16:47

Mondas is set up to be completely re-rated.

To achieve this the T&G Numbers need to be met, announced with a very positive outlook for 2007 and 2008. Mondas has been overlooked because of its dreadful history and many would be excused for being very sceptical about Mondas and the Management.

Let us see what the Management can deliver and importantly what they have to say and judge them. I am utterly convinced that they will at least hit the required figures.

What the directors need to do is inject a new enthusiasm into the market by whatever means they have available to them. Mondas is here to stay and looks like the growth now could be more attuned to what we had hoped for 3 years ago. Time to put the very best foot forward and meet the city and enthuse about the revamped and profitable Mondas.

George

[mollymolly] 21/11/2006 10:15

in my post 2082 above I forgot the value of tax losses.

So break up value guesstimates:

Resource - was bought for £4m in 2000 £5m
Blue Curve - at cost £3m
CAPS- a real guess but would have several bidders. £5m
Cash - prob 2.5M at 31 Dec £2m
Value of Tax losses (£4.7M at 31/12/05 + BC at 30%) £2m

Total Break up value £17m

Current cap £5 + CULS £4 = £9m.

Break up value is around twice current market valuation.

[rambutan2] 19/11/2006 23:49

a chance to impress them continentals...

STP Corporate Actions Event Europe 2006

Date: Wednesday 22nd November 2006
until: Wednesday 22nd November 2006

Location: Renaissance Amsterdam Hotel
1012 SZ Amsterdam

The Netherlands

MANAGING CHANGE: European Harmonisation for Corporate Actions Processing
This event is being held on Wednesday 22nd November 2006, at the Renaissance Hotel, Amsterdam.

The team at Mondas will be exhibiting at this event and look forward to meeting any prospective clients, clients and investors.

[rambutan2] 19/11/2006 21:04

and keeping an eye on the wider picture, which is always a good idea...

Last week, the European exchanges faced a new threat when seven investment banks unveiled plans to create their own exchange. The plot, codenamed Project Turquoise, has been formed by Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS, which are responsible for 50% of volumes on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).


and...

London, 14 November 2006 – The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced today the launch of its Trade Information Warehouse, creating a centralised and secure global infrastructure for the post-trade processing of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives.

[rambutan2] 19/11/2006 20:58

i know a company who fits this bill...

"In effect, a company whose cashflow both grows and is expected to grow at a faster rate than the wider market but whose valuation is lower than the wider market, is defined as a Hidden Gem."

[mollymolly] 19/11/2006 12:26

Magpie,

I agree in part with you. The numbers being met will be a major milestone, but of course we will then be looking to see what is likley to happen in 2007 and 2008. The future prospects will key to how big the share price rise is.

Perhaps investment/gamble is just sematics. Investments in companies like Mondas are risky and investors(gamblers) have to weigh the possible loss against the possible gains.

In looking at the downside I look at the break up value now. Perhaps Resource £5, CAPS £5, and Blue Curve say £3M. Don't forget £2M cash. These are of courses guesses, but not, I think, silly ones. Knock of the CULS and you get to double the current valuation. Anyway much more than current value.

Look at the upside:

1. A steady mature Resource business generating substantial recurring revenue.

2. CAPS is the leading product in an emerging market. It is still not clear how fast this market will move, but the prospects are certainly large. The product is now well developed, robust and can be implemented quickly. A "global" rollout is underway including the US.

3. Blue Curve, again a leading product in an emerging market. Substantial new business this year including a "global" bank with again a large US part.

None of these exciting possibilities are reflected in the share price at the moment.

At the end of Sept T&G's analyst said that fair value was 25p. I'm sure he will upgrade that in Jan if the results appear as expected.

So in the short term there is a very real prospect of doubling and if the prospects for 2007/8 can be shown to be good (the global rollouts will help here) then we should see much more.

Mondas is in its best position EVER, with the share price near its lows. You can be sure that oncem Mondas' management has proved itself with the numbers for 2006 there will be some determinded promotion of the shares.

I do not mind if you call it an investment or a gamble - the shares are a buy in my opinion.

[magpie99] 18/11/2006 12:47

As I have said before the share price does not depend on JUST the numbers, Molly.

Although of course, meeting the numbers is helpful to the share price

Even if the numbers are met the share price might not budge an inch.

I was hoping that you would not refer to am investment in Mondas as a gamble. If it is still a gamble after all this time, it is time to bring in a board who can make it a good investment.

[rambutan2] 17/11/2006 12:12

well at least no one seems to be picking up stock below 15p at the mo.

i noted that micro focus, another serial disappointer, is on an 07 pe of 18+.

ho humm.

[birdie4] 16/11/2006 21:50

Andy man, your posts are high in ramped forecasts but low in achievement historically (please show me posts to prove me wrong). I am sure you mean well but your posts do smack of ramping and without any facts to support them. I am long in MDS and obviously want MDS to do well but find your posts irritating as they are blatant ramps.

[mollymolly] 16/11/2006 16:36

Make some assumptions:

1. Forecast for the year is met

2. Forecast is up 40% for 2007 at around £1m (as per T&G's last forecast)

3. p/e increases from 7 to say 12.

4. Mondas can be convincing about 2007 forecast.

This gives a share price of 35p in January.

It is of course likely that there will be some dilution for the Blue Curve earn out, but on the other hand a p/e of 12 is very modest for a company growing at 40%p.a.

So IF they make the numbers and IF they are convincing about the 2007 forecast then more than doubling the share price in 2 months must be possible.

I still think an invesment in Mondas is a good gamble now.

[andy man] 16/11/2006 15:56

Much better than a 70% chance of hitting 20 pence and above short term soon as the company confirms forecast is met. Could happen anytime soon.

Cheers

[mollymolly] 11/11/2006 14:01

Magpie,

Whether the current price represents fair value depends upon what you believe the future to be.

As you & I well know, Mondas does have a track record of dissapointing its investors. I do not think we will be dissapointed this time; there have been very clear indications of confidence from the directors. I think that they really do expect to meet expectations this year AND next year as well.

In January Mondas should be able to prove that it has moved to substantial profit and can also should demonstate that strong organic growth is going to happen in 2007 and 2008. Then Mondas will warrant a much higher rating.

I cannot see the directors wanting to crow much at present. They are likely to get the track record thrown at them.

You can be sure that come January a very vigorous effort will be made to present the company's prospects. In the meatime, some may feel that the chance of doubling (T&G say 25p is fair value now) in two months is a gamble worth taking.

I do feel a frustration that Mondas is really in its strongest position ever. It has three product areas all growing strongly, and has a solid balance sheet. It is my view that the current share price does not at all reflect the prospects.

[magpie99] 08/11/2006 13:19

Its unbelievable that this company already must have good connections in the city, but cannot seem to use these to promote this company.

We are talking about a company that sells to the Finance Industry, and must deal with these finance companies and the city on a daily basis, stockbrockers and the like.

Maybe this share price reflects fair value if the director cannot pick up the phone and get talking

[steve_wilson] 08/11/2006 11:06

Public Relations aside Mondas are making sustained progress as a business and will almost certainly report £700k this year. Sounds like recurring revenue is also higher than I expected and will be the corner stone moving into 2007 and beyond.A far cry from the loss making business most investors bought into.

If they can win the hearts of the city, Mondas could still be a big success story.

SJW

[billy liar] 08/11/2006 07:48

Thanks for reporting back guys.

[rambutan2] 08/11/2006 00:37

like molly, i attended the agm.

during the formal business there was a fairly full and frank discussion centering on share dilution and share price. and i think it's fair to say that these two issues will be uppermost in the minds of the board as they hold their annual strategy and planning meeting this week.

all parts of the business are clearly going well and there is plenty of confidence both re this year and next. the caps global rollout will be rewarding, likewise the blue curve one, as well as providing great platforms for impressing other potential customers.

i was pleasantly surprised that recurring support rev was now covering a good chunk of operating costs.

it seems to me that jarleth and co have done a great job in sorting the business out, all they've got to do now is sort out the share price. hopefully, over the next few days they will address this matter with the urgency that it deserves and come up with a new proactive strategy, whatever that requires.