Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[typo56] 30/8/2016 15:29

I'm not sure that being bottom of the FTSE 100 attracts more tracker support than being top of the FTSE 250. Might even be the reverse. Any effect is likley drowned out by company performance and underlying economic factors. Look back at the June review. HIK promoted, ISAT demoted. What's happened since?

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 15:07

Typo
If we get in, whats your guess we could go to coming weeks as trackers have to buy, mind is 2250p, with the 37.4p div ex Thursday.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 15:00

One thing CNBC said rotation of 3rd quarter from telecoms, utilities into banks and tech. Are the yanks buying Micro Focus?

[typo56] 30/8/2016 14:58

I'm sure. Both the September review and the ARM announcement are due after close tomorrow (31 Aug). The review changes will take effect from Mon, 19 Sep and are determined by market caps at close today. The ARM change will take effect from Mon, 5 Sep. ARM will be replaced by the stock which is top of the September review reserve list (determined at close tomorrow I think).

FTSE promotion/demotion has nothing to do with market sector. As long as a stock qualifies for inclusion in the All-Share index (on the basis of things like nationality, liquidity, premium listing, number of trading days on main market....), then promotion/demotion is simply down to market cap.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 14:39

Typo
Are you sure I thought it was 2nd Sept review day. Also Typo i think its not just market cap, other data comes into it, shares in issue, etc. So you never know, with only one other software company Sage in Footsie, now Arm delisted, surely we will get in.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 14:11

If we don't get in, no problem hopefully next one December.As long as cash cow Micro Focus keeps paying increased dividends.

[typo56] 30/8/2016 13:30

Not Friday Monty. The decisions will be announced after close tomorrow.

I may be wrong but I can't see TPK or DC. being demoted. It looks like they'd need to fall below JE. to be booted out. JE. is currently about £3,700m, so that would require INTU/TPK/DC. to fall about 12% today. MCRO could still replace ARM though, if they are top of the reserve list.

Should be a lot clearer after close tonight.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 13:03

Typo

Of course all guess work, but Berkeley Homes, look certain, Travis Perkins perhaps, Dixons, hard to say.

Not a done deal, anything can happen but I would be amazed if Micro Focus did not make it now Arm delisted. Fingers crossed for Friday. But in the meantime 37.4p divi ex Thursday.

[typo56] 30/8/2016 12:51

Monty, I'm not sure they'll be three upcoming vacancies in the FTSE 100. What stocks were you thinking will leave?

As at close last Friday I think perhaps only BKG will be forced out of the FTSE 100, to be replaced by POLY on 19 Sept. But it all depends on market caps at close tonight, so there could be more

Then it's a very tight call as to what stock will replace ARM on 5 Sept (this is separate to the quarterly review). I believe that decision will be based on market caps at close tomorrow. Up until this morning I'd have punted on it being SKG or perhaps CRDA but now MCRO is certainly in the running.

The review changes and ARM replacement should be announced after close tomorrow (not Friday), so the MCRO ex-div dip won't affect the decision.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 10:48

Looking good boys, I know they go ex div this Thursday, 37.4p in the bag. FTSE 100 review Friday.
ARM delisted, so 3 should go in. If its us, tracker funds have to buy. Sage the only other software company. I see a run to £22 coming weeks.

[orange1] 30/8/2016 09:15

A complete loon. How many times has it been explained to the boy that the fact that Sage is in the FTSE 100 has nothing to do with whether or not ARM is admitted?

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 09:07

Looking at rankings around 100 so a chance, but a couple of other companies in front of us. But we are the only software company. Surely they want two in FTSE100 Sage and Micro Focus, now Arm will be delisted.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 08:46

Arm Plc will be delisted from the FTSE 100 this week, leaving only Sage as the only software company in the Footsie, I think 80% chance we will replace Arm this week on he 2nd Sept FTSE 100 review day.If we do add 50p. But 1st September we go ex div 37.4p so that's nice to have in the bag.

[montyhedge] 30/8/2016 08:02

I don't know if we will get in the FTSE100 next review this week. If we do add 50p to shareprice. If not December for sure.

[sogoesit] 29/8/2016 12:26

Here's a weekly chart for the evidence!

[sogoesit] 29/8/2016 12:07

That's 30% CAGR over 5 years.
Sustainable? Optimistic but possible!

The current trend (higher lows) CAGR from 15 Oct 2015 to 15 July 2016 is 43%!
The return rate CAGR from lows to highs 15 Oct 2015 to 05 August close was 90%.

That's just the capital appreciation ignoring dividends.
With dividends/capital returns, since 2013, the rate of return has been 50% pa.

All that with a hedge on Sterling weakness...
.... not to be sneezed at ;-)

[montyhedge] 25/8/2016 14:06

5 years time £75 a share easily.

[montyhedge] 25/8/2016 14:06

lol, up from 640p so of course taking a breather, nothing goes up in a straight line.
nice 37.4p divi all so on its way.

[diku] 25/8/2016 13:46

monty...gravity will pull it down to 1800p....even that World's biggest plane came crushing down other day....you might just wanna save that picture when this comes down to 1800p...

[montyhedge] 25/8/2016 13:36

Nice dividend on its way boys, 37.4p ex 1st Sept.

[excell1] 25/8/2016 13:35

Best short in the market.

[montyhedge] 24/8/2016 15:27

Start that with a 2 Diku, 2800p if we get in FTSE 100 Sept 2nd, but I think December review we will get in.

[diku] 24/8/2016 08:17

monty no;3....this wants to hit 1800p!...

[montyhedge] 23/8/2016 22:25

Cash cow, I bet they resume special dividend Nov 16.Will we get in FTSE 100, that's the question. Couple of others now in front of us.