|Michelmersh Brick Hldgs
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Construction & Materials
Michelmersh Brick Holdings Share Discussion Threads
Showing 851 to 874 of 875 messages
Not my buying on Friday. Large quantities available most of last week, but tightened towards the end of week, as reflected by modest rise off lows on Friday.
Cenkos only have 1.3p div for 2017 but with proceeds from Dunton & their normal cash generation, surely they can begin ramping this up further?
Thanks for the post, was it your buying pushing the price on Friday?!
Do you have a view on likely dividend development over time?
Shares have been under pressure during the least 6 months with the price falling 35% in the period.
IMHO they appear good value at the current 50p level with the signs of recent selling dissipating on Friday & price edging up for the first time in a while.
The Jan 2017 update confirmed the sale of Dunton when, "...the expected surplus on sale will exceed £1 million" alongside confirmation of October 2016 guidance, but with the positive news of strong cash generation & news that the level of cash balance exceeded expectation.
Cenkos issued a brief update in Jan 2017 & commented,
"The company’s trading update reaffirms the guidance from October’s trading statement that performance is expected to be “at or around” that of FY15. However, cash generation has been stronger than expected, we believe due to superior working capital management and some deferral of capex payments into FY17. As such, we maintain our P&L forecasts, but update our cash flow assumptions (+0.3m working capital/-£0.2m capex), producing a net cash position of £4.7m (Previously £4.2m).
Our FY17 cash flow forecast has been updated to reflect the proceeds from Dunton’s sale. We now expect a net cash position of £8.2m by the end of FY17 should no further capex projects be launched.
Stripping out forecast net cash and realisable investment land in the balance sheet (£11.9m), Michelmersh trades on an attractive FY17E adj PER of 5.7x".
The brokers have forecasts of Adj EPS of 4.6p for 2016 & 1.2p div (2.4% dividend yield) alongside a +£2m uplift in closing net cash in the year to £4.7m as mentioned above.
Wouldn't surprise me if vultures were circling given the high margins enjoyed by the business & ever strengthening balance sheet. The NAV is forecast to rise to £55m by end of 2017 versus the current £41m market cap. All depends if the Chairman & Hoskins are looking to cash in their chips I suppose...
I've taken a modest position.
|I notice that the Bovis development on the first part of the Telford site, Oakford Grange (I can't help feeling that you would have to look very carefully to find either an oak or a ford), is now advertising "final homes now released". Presumably Bovis would like to acquire more of the site although, as I understand it, MBH have always said further land would only be released when they no longer had a use for it.
It may be that the next release will be in a different part of the site as the remaining factory rather prevents development continuing down the Sommerfield Road. If that's the case then there could well be a pause before a further sale.|
|Moving above trend line. Looking very rosy to me.|
my retirement fund
|I still think that someone will make a move on this company in 2017.
At what price ....... above 70p which AlanRussell mentioned. Add a value for redevelopment and you could be talking about 90p+.
We will have to wait and see............|
|Very reassuring news indeed. I was sufficiently encouraged to top up this morning and, having tapped the calculator for a while this evening, will probably add further tomorrow.
The balance sheet is looking increasingly strong. Net assets at YE 2015 were 60.6 p per share (only 2.5m out of 49.2m were intangibles). To that is to be added the retained profit, £1m uplift from today's RNS and any revaluations pointing to about 70p per share.
EPS for 2015 was 4.44p so heading towards a PE of 10. Not expensive. The sale proceeds announced today represent 3.3p per share (gross).
Cash at half-year was 2.7m. Add cash generated since (note the last line in the RNS) and 2.68m less costs coming late summer, say 8+m.
Dividend of 1p per share cost £812,000 so scope for hefty increase here.
So cap £40m, profits about 4.5m, trading at 28% discount to sound assets, pension scheme defined contribution not final salary, progressive dividend policy, what's not to like?
The usual of course. Trading in building materials is about as cyclical as you get. Just look at the share price history! Energy costs must be rising and with virtually no overseas sales no help from weak pound. And always the temptation to empire build although, in all fairness, the board have been admirable cautious (except that acquisition up north a few years back that has never been mentioned again). Indeed I would suggest the board is one of MBH's main assets.
Also the October RNS that knocked the share price mentioned pressure on selling prices in 2016. No comment today presumably means the "little or no recovery in prices at the start of 2017" mentioned is still the position.
Ren you mentioned developable assets. Telford is the main one, about 90 acres - 4.6 acres were sold in 2013 for 15m so work that out (allow for significant land restoration costs). Bovis are still selling away and more land will only be released as the clay is exhausted and followed by landfill so to be spread over many years.
Charnwood is the other of note. MBH was going for pp for 200 houses but now wants to continue working the site for the foreseeable future - last years final results talk of 12 years supply of clay so again very long term.
Bear in mind that while the ex-clay extract sites achieve pp fairly readily as brownfield sites, they are only brownfield when exhausted so little chance of a takeover targeting quick realisation of development value. One for the patient I would say.|
|What will they do with the cash? Surely the plan isn't just to add it to existing cash reserves that are already more than forecast! How much more acres have they got that might potentially be rezoned for housing one day? I haven't researched this company too well so please be gentle if you know the answers, I don't.|
|A very pleasing and positive update today. Like for like revenues maintained at 2015s all time record. No bad news including that of the dodgy private bulletin board posters claim regards alleged production problems. Anarge upward realisation of book value on a confirmed land sale deal. Cash generation ahead of expectations.I have increased my exposure on the back of this.|
my retirement fund
|Took a look at the longer term chart. The share price has fallen to the lowest price since September 2013.
Further doubts about issues aired in the October 2016 trading update?
Energy costs heading higher with fall in Sterling - though a lower Sterling should help with competing imports of bricks.
Results not till 20 March 2017, so a bit of an information vacuum atm.|
|A help for MBH would be a relaxation on Stamp Duty in 2017.
Big homes and other business type properties are big users of MBH products and I am about to look into using them in Wimbledon in 2017 on a huge house/flat renovation.
In the meantime the price has recovered and with some positive news I would not be a shorter of this share..........|
|All buys in a thin market = no production problems - see previous posts.|
|Its not raining.............|
|Word from the street is commercial construction projects have seen their largest slow down since 2012 - the 1st qtr of 2017 is going to be very grim indeed with lots of profit warnings and scaling back of revenue projections.
On another note I see the continued drip drip of selling here over the last few weeks has gathered apace and I do think we are in for fresh new multi year lows.
I have also noted the poster here who has flagged production problems in the tiling factory.
If it doesn't rain it pours.|
my retirement fund
|I will chase them up on Monday..........|
Be very grateful for your update from brokers as you seem close to this PLC, must be pretty simple for brokers to ring the company to verify my information which you where dismissive of.
Share prices slide over last few days shows me certain people aware of issues. Strange why no announcement from Cenkos.
There is a few short sells being place I see?|
|The brokers are now checking so one will have to wait.|
|I will speak with the brokers and tell them what an employee said to you this morning and post the answer.|
|May I suggest you go straight to the source.
Mr Mark Wall @Michelmersh.
Please also check with Elliots builders merchants.
Why do I know its true they just let me down on a big order of tiles.
The company should publish this on RNS but has covered it up.
Please check I would be delighted this is thrown in the open.|
|I have reasons to believe that the above story has no foundations to it.......and the company is investgating.|
|We will get to the bottom of this on Monday 28 November.|
|Does anyone know full details of What is the issue production issue regards the Romsey site having a broken manufacturing machine for roof the tile production.
Builder merchants can not get orders placed from Sept and this is not being advised to market by brokers Cenkos? Why no RNS statements.
Spoken to three builders merchants they can not fulfil orders for supply and give a time frame.|
|Taken from a brokers report.............
"the real potential is from the holes in the ground left once Michelmersh has cut its bricks. The sites can be turned over for residential development or, possibly even more lucratively, as landfill sites".
I remember Hanson taking over London Brick - just for the holes = the capital gain and the bricks = cash flow and profit. It all came to pass in the end.|
I remember the days when my farther bought bricks direct from London Brick but by the mid 70's that was stopped and brick selling was put in the hands of the wholesalers such as Travis P and others.
Dad switched as LB became slow in delivering and so better quality bricks were bought and the cost of the house went up and so did the sales price hence "the punter pays in the end". In a way some local builders merchants do push one brick to the detriment of other types and if I was a board member this is an area I would look at.
Otherwise a reasonable and well run business but in need of new blood and a take-over.|