Metnor Share Discussion Threads

[ba5hir is back] 13/10/2007 11:19

Think a lot more downside to tome let the trend be your friend.

[whipround] 10/10/2007 14:16

£10m is including exceptional sale of Chesterfield operation and land.

[cyberbub] 09/10/2007 17:33

Hmm. Does anyone know why ADVFN's 'Financials' page would differ from Metnor's website?

E.g. ADVFN says turnover and pre-tax profit 74M and 10M respectively, for 2006. Metnor website (www.metnor.co.uk) says 86M and 5M... a bit of a difference, esp. in second figure?!

[cyberbub] 08/10/2007 17:27

ADVFN reports P/E is only 5.5! I work it out at about 7. In either case it seems crazy! I am looking for it to drop a bit further and then I will be in.

[whipround] 08/10/2007 16:27

Should be £10m next year.

[ivyeileen] 26/9/2007 16:20

"The market has warmed to the Metnor management team and its strategy. From a low of 249p last June, the shares have risen to a high of 439p today. This values the company at £68m - which seems cheap for a business that is expected to deliver profits of nearly £7m this year and more than £8m next year." - Sunday Telegraph in June.

Yes, very interesting but ........... the verdict is in the share price

[whipround] 25/9/2007 17:17

£4.75

[ashbox] 31/8/2007 13:08

2 big sells totalling 500K but no significant dent in the price. We seem to be drifting at the moment with no real news forthcoming. Anyone care to put an expected value in 2008 on this?

[whipround] 18/5/2007 15:18

Looks like the classic "stock overhang" has been removed - euphamism for market makers knew there was a seller, they stock on the cheap and now they put the price up to make even more money.

[woody6] 16/4/2007 11:25

Excellent move up today. Good bit of snaffling going on post results.

[davebowler] 13/4/2007 13:56

MONDAY APRIL 16

Metnor Group PLC said in December that, in addition to the disposals, all its other business divisions were trading significantly above management expectations.

The board predicted year to December 2006 pretax profits of not less than 6.6 mln stg, significantly exceeding the consensus market forecast and up from 5.0 mln in 2005. After accounting for the exceptional profit made on the sale of

Metnor Galvanizing, the group anticipated pretax profits of 10.0 mln stg-plus.

The clean pretax figure would throw up EPS of 27.0 pence against 24.4 previously, from which a 10.1 pence (9.4) dividend total is anticipated.

Meanwhile, disposals achieved this year give Metnor a significantly strengthened balance sheet and a strong foundation to grow rapidly its healthcare and education businesses.

[woody6] 02/4/2007 11:10

On the move once again.

[energyi] 12/3/2007 01:09

US CRISIS: New Podcast - how Lee Adler describes it:

You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Sunday, March 11, 2007

by Aaron Krowne A new podcast is up - me and Lee chat about the fate of the mortgage and housing markets. The theme: spreading beyond subprime; marginal loans and marginal borrowers are everywhere and will likely cause mass financial destruction.

@:

= =

Implode-a-meter up at 36, but is "by no means comprehensive".
M0zilla says, "we are losing 50 shops a day"- including the small ones.

"All bubbles are fed from activity at the 'bottom of the market'"- ie low quality.
Capacity to lend at the bottom is now crumbling, and will not bounce back.

[woody6] 08/3/2007 11:25

nice bit of blue this morning.

[energyi] 24/2/2007 12:19

Bill Fleckenstein describing the current mortgage market:

Connecting Mortgage-Related Dots
Buckle up, this is a long one. I feel I need to spend some time discussing the financial dark-matter market, how dots may be connected there, and how dots may get connected all through the housing/finance food chain. For today's column, I'm indebted to my friend in London, who I am about to quote from extensively...

Turning to yesterday's email from my friend, I want to share his description of the CDO market, and his thoughts on where all this bad housing paper may be residing:

"So who owns all this securitised subprime garbage, which you could describe as scratch-and-dent loans? The answer, unsurprisingly, is CDO managers, hoping correlation will be low.
. .
Valuation and ignorance aside, here's how it might get ugly. A cash-flow CDO does not mark to market. So right now, no matter how bad things are in subprime, an investor is not going to be terribly worried about their exposure unless one of the ratings agencies specifically downgrades those tranches within a CDO. I understand that the CDO investor will then have to take a mark-to-market loss, as discussed yesterday, and that's when it becomes problematic.

"So what we need to look out for now is any signs that the ratings agencies are starting to focus on the CDOs themselves, and perhaps we are getting closer to the point where one of them actually does something about it. I imagine the last thing Moody's management wants is to be hit with a swag of class action suits when the game finally ends.

"Last night we saw considerable interest in certain financials CDS. I will say though that there is a certain irony to buying a CDS on a major US bank, given they very likely provide many people who might want to put the trade on with the finance and leverage to do it in the first place."

I intend to stay focused on these developments, because as events take place, it will perhaps give us some clues as to the timing of the unwinding of this whole financing bubble. Of course it will have huge ramifications for the economy and the stock market

...more/post#39:

[energyi] 22/2/2007 00:37

AHM 30.80 -$1.03
CFC 40.69 -$0.95
DFC 10.77 -$0.50
FMT 13.31 -$0.45
HBC 89.36 -$0.28
IMH 7.86 -$0.33
LEND 24.60 -$0.83
NDE 36.32 -$0.80
NEW 17.55 -$1.22
NFI 10.10 -$7.46

Shares of Subprime Lenders Weaken As Novastar Reports Credit Woes

NEW YORK (AP) -- "Subprime" mortgage lending -- the area of mortgage banking catering to people with bad credit -- took another hit Wednesday.

Shares of subprime mortgage lenders plunged after Novastar Financial Inc. said it lost $14.4 million in the fourth quarter. The Kansas City, Mo.-based mortgage bank recorded nearly $45 million in accounting charges anticipating that people with bad credit who bought homes during the housing boom won't be able to repay their mortgages.

Perhaps most dramatic was Novastar's disclosure that it expects to recognize little, if any, taxable income in the next five years. As a real estate investment trust, Novastar distributes most of its taxable income as dividends. Novastar is considering shifting away from the REIT model because the company doesn't know whether it will have taxable income through 2011.

NovaStar did say that using generally accepted accounting principles, it "generally will be profitable" over the next several years.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Chris Brendler used such terms as "unfathomable," "alarming" and "inexcusable" in responding to the disclosure. He also pegged the stock's "fair value" at $10-$11.

Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Stephen Laws, who was one of at least two analysts to downgrade Novastar Financial, cut his price target on Novastar Financial by more than 72 percent. His new price target of $8, down from $29, represents his estimate of the net value of the company's assets, with no expectations for dividends in the near future.

Shares of Novastar Financial sank $7.46, or 42.5 percent, to close at $10.10. The stock touched as low as $9.80, crashing through the previous 52-week low of $14.92 set earlier this month. Novastar's stock hasn't traded so cheaply since 2002. A year ago today, Novastar's stock was worth $27. Two years ago, it traded at $34.61. Three years ago, it closed at $51.35.

Stocks in other mortgage lenders, which have mostly been eroding in the past year amid a cooling housing market, followed Novastar downward.

Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp. fell 95 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $40.69; IndyMac Bancorp Inc. fell 80 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $36.32; New Century Financial Corp. fell $1.22, or 5.5 percent, to $17.55; American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. fell $1.03, or 3.2 percent, to $30.80; Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. fell 33 cents, or 4 percent, to $7.86; and Fremont General Corp. fell 45 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $13.31. All those stocks trade on the NYSE.

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. fell 83 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $24.60 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Delta Financial Corp. fell 50 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $10.77 on the American Stock Exchange.

[davebowler] 21/2/2007 15:52

Tolent, j. v. partner up today.

[whipround] 20/2/2007 15:14

I think the share price will be dependent on what the chairman/chief execs statement says rather than the numbers themself, but all seems pretty bullish so far, so with a little luck and a decent market we might get to £5 after the results and £6 for the half time in Sept/oct.

[nickjoseph] 20/2/2007 11:12

Still in these as well. Not much happening or news. Momentum Investor out this weekend. Might get a mention if we are lucky.

[woody6] 19/2/2007 20:43

Nice quiet thread

[energyi] 16/2/2007 06:51

(The Twin Towers)
FNM- Fannie Mae. : 1899
..
FRE- Freddie Mac : 5744
..
FNM- Amer.Home Mortgage : 1610329
(The Gang)
AHM- Amer.Home Mortgage : 1610329
..
CFC- Countrywide Fin'l. : 1426
..
FMT- Fremont Gen'l Corp : 2087
..
HBC- HSBC Holdings Plc. : 151595
..
HRB- H&R Block, Inc.... : 863
..
IMH- Impac Mtg. Hldgs.. : 51541
..
LEND Accredited Hm.Lend : 1370604
..
MTG- MGIC Inv. Corp.... : 7919
..
NDE- IndyMac Bancorp... : 112954
..
NEW- New Century Fin'l. : 1835542
..
NFI- Novastar Financial : 44864
..
PMI- The PMI Group, Inc : 14481
..
RDN- Radian Group Inc.. : 149364
..

[energyi] 16/2/2007 06:42

Mortgage Lenders Battered by Late Payers
Thursday February 8, 5:50 pm ET
By Dan Seymour, AP Business Writer
Mortgage Lenders Plunge As 2 Banks Warn of Missed Payments, Depreciating Home Loans


NEW YORK (AP) -- The mortgage industry plunged deeper into distress this week as two lenders said sagging home prices and higher interest rates are pushing many borrowers into delinquency.
HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe's biggest bank and a major player in the U.S. mortgage industry, said the market for "subprime" mortgages, or home loans to people with blemished or limited credit histories, is in trouble.

Analysts' estimate for how much HSBC needs to sock away for problem loans is shy by a fifth, HSBC said. The London-based bank estimates it needs to set aside almost $10.6 billion to cover loans it won't be able to collect.

Shares of mortgage providers fell across the board on Thursday, none hit as hard as New Century Financial Corp., a subprime mortgage lender based in Irvine, Calif. The company said late Wednesday accounting errors caused it to lose track of how drastically some of its mortgage loans are losing value.

Three Wall Street analysts downgraded New Century, and the company's stock plummeted $10.92, or 36.2 percent, to close at $19.24 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock crashed through its previous 52-week low of $29.07, set last month, to reach an intraday low of $19.12.

During the housing boom, many mortgage banks devised crafty loans allowing people to borrow money with no down payment and pay low interest rates for the first few years on adjustable mortgages. Now, as interest rates reset higher, more borrowers are missing payments and many lenders are going out of business or putting themselves up for sale.

Subprime loans were once very attractive to some banks due to their higher interest rates.

But HSBC said the weak housing market exacerbates credit problems in the subprime mortgage space. Until a little more than a year ago, stretched borrowers who needed to raise cash could take out a second mortgage on their houses and use that money to pay off loans. With housing prices stagnant -- and in some markets falling -- consumers' best source of financing has shriveled.

The problem for these types of lenders may not go away quickly.

"We expect poor subprime credit trends to continue at least through 2007 and into 2008," Merrill Lynch analyst Kenneth Bruce wrote in a research report.

U.S. shares of HSBC Holdings fell $2.44, or 2.7 percent, to $89.78 on the Big Board.

Another reason bad credit plagues mortgage lenders is it shrinks appetite for home loans in the bond market.

Most mortgage lenders don't keep their loans; they package them into bonds and sell them to investors. Lenders' profits are determined by how much the bonds sell for.

...more: