Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[peterpowell21] 10/1/2017 16:04

so many buys and still no tick up.
lets wait for the £100 sell and watch them drop it.
only in AIM.

[achillesheel] 10/1/2017 12:49

True and we could have an Rns tomorrow, but still a lot of stock to be shifting £375K's worth without so much as a blip on the share price ????

[peterpowell21] 10/1/2017 12:36

well the funny thing is that how ever you look at it,the NED has info that we do not. He will know exactly where we stand with gold sales and the plant progression.
how ever you look at it,he has inside info.

if it had been a sell the mm's would have dropped this like a stone.

lots of buys and no sells 4.825p to sell and 4.9875p to buy. very tight spread.

i'm for one am buying.

[peterpowell21] 10/1/2017 12:17

achille

you have to remember this is AIM.
Rules seem to be there to be ignored.

seems a lot of buys going through.

[achillesheel] 10/1/2017 12:16

Yep, shows confidence just would have been nice for an update on plant progression or gold sales. ]

There's another 1.2million just gone through, plus the other 1million on the 9th so we have buys totalling 7.15million gone through the past two days. the question is who is selling as can't see the mm's holding that much stock.

[peterpowell21] 10/1/2017 12:08

achille

well he paid 5p for 5m. that seems a good price for that amount.
well he bought them from the open market at the same price you or i would have to pay.
looks good to me.

[achillesheel] 10/1/2017 11:48

At least 30 days then before any new announcement.

[peterpowell21] 10/1/2017 11:08

hutch

yes that has to be good news.
have to laugh that they have made it look like they have dropped the price.they have in fact just dropped the offer to the price you could have bought at anyway. you can also get 4.825p to sell.
well i have just added again on my ig account.
if the NED is buying it may mean we still have a while to wait before we get an update.
thats fine by me. if mr Ayre is happy to buy £250,000 worth. i am happy to top up and wait for the news.

[achillesheel] 10/1/2017 10:51

Be interesting to find out where the stock came from

[hutch_pod] 10/1/2017 09:58

Indeed it was a buy, director buy nonetheless.

The Company received notification that Mr. Jeremy Ayre, Non Executive Director of Metals Exploration plc, acquired 5,000,000 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 5.00 pence per Ordinary Share on 9 January 2017. Following the purchase Mr Ayre has a beneficial interest of 7,000,000 Ordinary Shares, 0.00338 percent of the Company's issued share capital.

[peterpowell21] 09/1/2017 13:13

achille

it was a buy.
i am getting a price of 4.82p to sell now,up from 4.64p for the last week or so.
i cant get a live price from my account as you need the cash in your account to get a price.
anything 4.99p and above has been a buy.
We can't be far of news now.

[achillesheel] 09/1/2017 13:02

no worries, someone's been shuffling stock the past two trading days

[achillesheel] 09/1/2017 12:41

Was that a £250K sell or buy, or is LSE just messed up again for a change?

[peterpowell21] 07/1/2017 10:59

lord badger

well as FCF is owned by MTL the easy way to get hold of runruno is just to buy MTL.
As MTL is a one trick pony from what i can see,MTL value is runruno.
so yes the value of the gold in the ground is what the value of MTL should be based on, if a buy out was to come.But with a market cap of around 100m pounds. there has been $206m spent on runruno, and debt of $81m the market cap just covers the cost of getting where we are today.
there should be a big upside to the share price here.
time will tell.

[lord badger] 06/1/2017 17:06

Hol, I’d given up speculating on what might happen down the line but I don’t think this is a pure Candy play given the outcome of the Battle for MTL a few years ago, which pegged back their holding to below 50%. I thing the prevailing theory is a sale at some stage. There is another theory, that being to build up a war chest and buy another mine, possibly from a major producer looking to pay down debt, but I don’t see the current management taking that on, and besides, it would be hard to compete with the Chinese who are acquisitive at the moment. Then there is the possibility of developing another mine - MTL is, at the end of the day, an exploration company - but I don’t think there is an appetite for this in the Philippines given the government’s attitude towards mining and the current regulatory environment. There are possibly a number of other options, along the lines of those you mentioned, but the Candy’s would have to convince Runruno Holdings, Baker Steel, Ruffer, et al, to go along with them on that journey - they could do it, but personally I doubt it.

You mention the Candys being used to long term plays, but for them this is already a very long term play and perhaps they’re looking to close it out sooner rather than later. I think the other thing to bear in mind is that the world has changed a great deal since the the Candys first got involved and their priorities / strategy may well have changed; their strategy certainly changed after 2010.

If a sale is the preferred route then unless something forces their hand, my logic dictates that the company would maximise value beforehand; get the mine into full production and optimise the gold circuit and then run it for a while whilst expanding the resource. Well, that’s what I’d do.

With regards the share price, and your comment Peter, correct me if I’m wrong, but the company would most likely be selling the mine and the sale price would be based on the value of the gold in the ground, effectively the value of FCF Minerals, rather than MTL’s share price If this is the case then I’m not sure the major shareholders will be focused too much on the current SP, more on the longterm performance of the mine and the size of the resource/reserves.

[achillesheel] 06/1/2017 12:38

Buys flooding in now £97.97 and £153.75 could we be in for a Monday morning RNS, wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend :P)

[holism] 06/1/2017 08:40

Yes in theory a multi bagger potential, however the game is being played by 4 major investors. They could simply launch a steel takeover bid, sell the company when producing at a decent rate or use the company as a vehicle in the far East. The Candys are property boys used to long term plays but they will want to make a proper return. Our return is in their hands. Any ideas LB?

[peterpowell21] 06/1/2017 08:35

lord badger

thanks, interesting reading

[lord badger] 05/1/2017 21:08

Hol, yes, I was referring to Mr Beardsworth, who also spoke of Runruno as a 2.5m oz play with output of 200,000oz per year…admittedly he did say this during the early stages of in-fill drilling and whilst driving the investment pony and trap around the city!

Dave, you’re right, 600t/h was the upper mill throughput figure mentioned, but I think Ian said the ore was bouncing around all over the place at or around the upper rate. Re your figures, how did you work them through? I ended up at the same number but via a different route: 200t/h = 1.752m p/a @1.85g/t = 114,330oz p/a @ 91.4% target recovery rate, so 104,497oz p/a. So that’s the 100,000oz + figure mentioned, but I’m now struggling with the 15-20% increase in recovery rate given that the design spec is 91.4%! Any thoughts?

Peter, re the cash sweep, you’re probably right. The banks will want to recover their money a quickly as possible given the various risks involved - typhoons, government, etc.

Regarding the 2P (Proven and Probable) resource figure of 1.06m oz over the 10.4 year mine life, my understanding is that this is not intended to be a hard and fast estimate of the total resource within the Exploration Area; its simply the figure arrived at in the feasibility study, which was intended to establish the commercial viability of building the mine. Given that drilling is expensive and, during early-stage exploration, money is tight, they’re only going to drill out an area to hit the commercial viability mark plus a bit on top. Obviously, having looked at the magnetic / geochem data, they will have placed the mine in the sweet spot, but just because the early drill mapping doesn’t suggest the presence of gold doesn’t mean there isn’t any there, it simply means they haven’t looked - and there are a number of interesting anomalies in the aeromagnetic mapping. Based on comments at the AGM I’m assuming that once the mine is operating at the design spec and the gold circuit has been optimised to achieve the best possible recovery rate, the company will look towards step-out drilling to increase the total resource. Bear in mind that based on previous company statements they have only drilled approximately 15% of the EP area and, from a mine operation perspective, the mill is over specified and design drawings of the Tailings Storage Facility indicate capacity to 15 years.

Based on the above one could make a case for 100,000oz p/a + say a 15% uplift in the recovery rate, so 115,000oz p/a over 15 years = 1,725,000m oz at $1,150 per oz less AISC of $534…so $1bn of gold after costs. With $85m of debt, 5p per share and a market cap of $127m I’d say there’s some value here. This is of course all wild speculation not the least because there’s no way gold will stay stable at $1,150 for the next 15 years, expanding the reserves will come at a cost, etc., etc., etc.

[peterpowell21] 05/1/2017 12:50

interesting reading here today, thanks.
it just a shame we have not updated the market yet.
with gold on the up again we seem to be missing out.
but a friend told me that the market is still not up and running a full speed yet.
so from monday i expect there is more chance of an update.

the more i learn here the more this looks cheap.
well time will tell.

ps
re repayment of loan.
i wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that they could increase production significantly.
"The facility includes an accelerated cash sweep repayment of 35% of available free cash".

[davegk] 05/1/2017 12:05

Lord badger - mill capacity, it was said at the last AGM that the mill had done 600 t per hour and that it was designed/specified to do 200 t per hour.

Working 365 days 24/7, 200 t per hour gives 135,000 ounces of gold per year. At a 75% utilisation rate that would be 100,000 ounces of gold per year, so there is plenty of scope for increased production.

And don’t forget it was said at the AGM that they would produce more than 100,000 ounces of gold per year, the inference being that it would be significantly more.

[holism] 05/1/2017 09:19

If you are referring to the personable Mr Beardsworth- he also said that the mine would still be producing in 20 years time, what he did not say was when the company would start producing. 20 years sounds like a great deal of gold.