Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hutch_pod] 31/7/2015 11:12

With the estimated AISC at circa $550 - thanks for the AGM update LB - and the 90k oz of hedges, EPS of >2p seems very achievable in the first full year, even if gold dips to $950, and 1p even at $600! Gave me quite a lot of comfort as we wait for gold to finally bottom..

[lord badger] 31/7/2015 10:48

Well, no sign of that 26m share off-load by Baker Steel going through in the volume figures. Presumably a private sale and in time we should see an update to the capital structure to show where it's gone - my money's on Ruffer. So, the free float remains the same, around 4.8%. Looks like some are taking the opportunity to jump in / top up this morning following the drop to 4.38p. The sell-side market size has certainly opened up considerably, which does indicate there's more liquidity at the moment.

[lord badger] 29/7/2015 23:59

One thing I forgot to mention, how did Investec acquire 3.9% without notifying the markets? My understanding is that anything over 3% has to be declared. There isn't an RNS to this effect and the first we found out about it was in the presentation at the AGM. Anyone market savy care to comment.

[lord badger] 29/7/2015 23:56

TB, not at all sure about hedging, aside from the fact mine needs trimming once in a while. I have the AISC at around $550 (stated production cost of $474 + $50 + $18 that we think the Chairman eluded to at the AGM…rounded up to $550 to be safe) , so $66,330,000.

[lord badger] 29/7/2015 12:19

Looks like Baker Steel just sold 1.9% of the stock (26,450,000 shares). They did something similar earlier in the year but most of what they sold was bought up by Ruffer…leaving 16m shares for Investec to snap up with a big chunk of the free float.

Either we're going to see another RNS today or tomorrow advising of a purchase by Ruffer or Investec or the free float will be 1.9% larger - 6.73 from 4.83% - which helps liquidity, which is obviously very tight.

If there isn't a matching purchase by one of the other major holders it might suggest Baker Steel just don't like gold at the moment, and who could blame them. However, they are close enough to the MTL story to know there is plenty of value in the stock at these levels. Feels like this sale is part of a pre-arranged strategy rather than a shift out of gold - could be a little of both I guess.

Odd that the price has dropped around 25%, indicating a big sell, but the volume reported over the past few days is tiny. The RNS says the transaction was yesterday - 28th - but it's not showing in the volume figures. Later today perhaps.

Gold seems to have formed a little low around $1080-1090 but, from what I'm reading, it will probably ease past this heading lower. I'm not overly concerned even with a slide to around $950. MTL still holds great value, especially having backed off to 4.62p. Just like when Baker Steel sold its last big chunk of stock, creating an artificial low of around 3.75p, this could be a good jumping in or averaging down point.

Nice spot from tombarr (off-line) of a recruitment ad for a driller for a Schramm 450 drill rig, indicating a return to step-out exploration drilling.

All in my humble opinion and please do your own research.

[davegk] 29/6/2015 15:08

I went last year, and I was the only shareholder present, so I shouldn’t be hard to spot this year!

[lord badger] 29/6/2015 14:53

We'll be thinking of you HP!

[hutch_pod] 29/6/2015 14:27

:) Have fun!

[lord badger] 29/6/2015 13:57

Do we need a password or shall I just carry a copy of The Times!

[davegk] 29/6/2015 12:53

I’ll see you there then, Lord Badger.
I am also interested in finding out what the all in sustaining cost is and would like some more details on the timing for the start of production.

[lord badger] 29/6/2015 09:06

Yes. Points of focus: step out drilling programme, availability of all-in sustaining cost per oz, update on other EPs. Anything to add?

[davegk] 29/6/2015 08:13

Anyone going to the AGM tomorrow?

[tombarr] 12/6/2015 09:32

April Picture Gallery is up.

[holism] 08/6/2015 08:54

deucher, not necessarily, the weakness is liquidity, and if as a result Baker Steel's sharea find their way into smaller holders things could change for the better.

[deuchar] 05/6/2015 17:14

Baker Steel's stake of 130000000 shares are an impediment to the upward share price.

[lord badger] 05/6/2015 10:04

tombarr, always good to be out on the up side! On the 13p offer price, we have to consider that offer predates a fair bit of stock dilution; 269m versus 1,374m today. The prospects at the time of the offer were roughly the same as today; 96,700 Au per annum, $477 op cost, 10 year mine life, $150m mine cost and Au, strangely enough, was around $1,200. 13p valued the co at 35m then: 6.5p values the co at £89m now. So you could say we're past the offer price already…however, we have a fully funded mine with a very good equity/debt ratio and and more indicated Au in the ground. Go figure!

[lord badger] 05/6/2015 09:23

Hol, you're right, it is virtually like a private company and almost was. Crazy really that the price of 92% of the stock is being set by the traded 8%. So if smaller retail investors think the company stinks or don't like what they see and head for the exit, larger private holders catch a cold. Hardly surprising then that the company is good with regular Op Updates and image galleries, although I expect this has as much to do with keeping a tiny number of very large investors abreast of progress.

[tombarr] 05/6/2015 08:49

Thanks for the sensible view on the non-appearance of the gallery, which I understand. But as it's inconsistent it would be nice if there was a formal explanation ("Updated gallery of pictures of the facility will appear here at the time of the AGM")

I was also out - in a good way, so it turns out - by around by 25 to 30 $ on my backwards-calculated gold price hedge estimate; my $1259 v circa $1287 in the AR. Good, at the moment!

Also, absolutely agreed on the quasi private company and the likelihood of a proper re-rating. Please. That 13p failed bid level would be a great first step.

[holism] 05/6/2015 07:56

Lord Badger- the liquidity is so small here its almost like a private company. I agree though no need to pump the PR button until corporate action. Tell it how it is and let the share price do its bit!! In August when the mine is finally live the share price should rise steadily. We we see!!

[lord badger] 04/6/2015 17:09

Agreed HP. None of the key dates seem to have slipped. Also an update on the tax situation re FTAA vs RMC17 and I particularly like the language around "realising shareholder value".

I think Mr Holzberger has played this all very well. He's kept his powder dry with the media, preferring to keep quiet until the mine is operating rather than making bold statements and having to retract them when inevitable delays occur, and he's kept us up-to-date with a series of solid and very detailed Op Updates and site images. Hats off to you sir.

tombarr, I expect we'll get a flurry on new images around the time of the AGM at the end of the month. Can't blame him for keeping a few back for a big flourish during his presentation.

[hutch_pod] 04/6/2015 16:03

Looks on track to me. Thorough update.

[tombarr] 03/6/2015 14:58

If anyone from the Company is monitoring this BB, or knows somebody there, can we please have a pictorial update on Runruno? The photo gallery was last updated in March. Thanks.

[hutch_pod] 20/5/2015 16:08

Hopefully they will put out a current research note soon :)