Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hutch_pod] 06/3/2015 13:55

I humbly offer 15 Dec 2015 :)

Can I ask where they mention the hedged price? I looked a few times and could never find a $ figure.

[rupert1] 06/3/2015 13:13

We are on the final run in now. 4 months to go until commissioning starts, first gold in Q3 and ramp up production through the rest of the year. The first 3 years production is hedged at $1300 g/au.

This time last year my predictions were:

"8-9p as soon as the funding is confirmed.
15-20p this time next year if we get to the first gold pour.
My target is 25-30p depending on the performance of gold. "

Ok so I omitted a 50% price drop as soon as it hit 8.5p and a 9 month construction delay, but nonetheless I am sticking to my guns. There aren't many of us on this thread, so let's have a sweep on when the share price will hit 10p.

I'll stick my neck out and say 31st August....... 2015.

[hutch_pod] 23/2/2015 09:31

Solid operational update. Spend looks under control - there seems to be $8m of taxes previously exempt under FTAA to deal with/add into the ongoing challenge, but covered within contingency. I guess while commissioning is still within Q2 2015 (June now), full production ramps up across H2, not Q3?

[hutch_pod] 17/2/2015 13:51

cheers. Not long til news.

[lord badger] 17/2/2015 13:37

Barclays & iii. Buy side market size appears to be relaxing again - 140,000. Another sell order being filled possibly.

[hutch_pod] 17/2/2015 12:47

Thanks LB. Can I ask which broker you use out of interest?

[lord badger] 17/2/2015 11:20

The 500,000 deal yesterday must have been a sell. The buy side market size relaxed as the order was filled. Market size on both buy and sell now back to their normal tiny amounts.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 15:47

The spread has tightened up massively. Last few weeks .75p now .25p. All I have on the 500,000 trade is that publication was delayed. On the surface it was a sell but given the price has been moving up or down +/- 3% on trades of a few hundred pounds you'd expect a trade of £22,500 to have greater impact...currently down 2.56% depending on were you look.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 15:10

Sell side currently limited to around 30,000 shares. It would be quite extreme, buying at the bid price, but there seems to be little rhyme or reason to MTL price movements - buy and it goes down sell and it goes up! BTW, last week the actual prices were more closely mirroring the bid and ask prices. I think it was the week before last that buys were coming through at below the mid price. Seems things were firming up.

On the op update, the web site gallery pictures for January still haven't appeared - presumably they'll be updated them when the op update comes through.

[hutch_pod] 16/2/2015 14:04

Interesting. I don't think I can tell the buy market size with HL without trying to get a quote. I certainly can't get even 20,000 right now.

Maybe the 500,000 were acquired on behalf of someone who isn't selling? But given how you could previously buy cheaper than the mid, it's plausible that the 500k was a buy and now the live price has lifted to 4.75. Btw, what are sell trades currently limited to?

Looks like CFEP is pulling the ask down to 4.75, as the others are mainly 6p aside from WINS at 5.5.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 13:29

An interesting 500,000 sell, or what appears to be a sell, went through this morning. Worrying given the imminent release of a op update, but intriguing given the impact it's had on the market size available to online trades - not a terribly scientific metric, but an interesting one nonetheless . Over the past few weeks my online broker has been accepting buy trades on MTL of anything up to 320,000 shares but limiting sell trades to around 40,000 shares; sometimes as low as 15,000. The buy side market size has now contracted from 320,000 to around 10,000 shares, which doesn't seem logical given that someone has presumably just sold 500,000 shares; I'd expect the precise opposite. Based on the buy side market size, rather than the purchase price relative to the mid price, logic would dictate that the 500,000 trade was a buy. In which case a trade of this size so close to an op update would look to be a positive sign.

Any thoughts anyone?

[hutch_pod] 05/2/2015 13:46

I emailed MTL around an update, and they said one should be out within 2 weeks.

[lord badger] 02/2/2015 13:05

Interestingly, or not, as your perspective may be, the Capaz, Puray and Worldwide EP overviews have disappeared from the main navigation on the Metals Ex web site. Either the web developers have made a mistake or someone has told them to take them down, the latter leading to the question: Why?

If someone did ask for them to be removed, they didn't do a very good job as they're still included in the site map navigation link at the bottom of the page. It's probably a mistake and I'm jumping at conspiracy shadows.

I appreciate that the company if focused on Runruno, but an update - date submitted, one-line status, and possible grant date - on these various other EPs is well overdue. I can't seem to find mention of them for over a year. In fact, I don't seem to remember six additional EP applications. Have a couple of these crept in without fanfare?

[holism] 02/2/2015 11:56

Yes with so few followers of the share its difficult to see any short term share price movement. However when corporate action looks likely I am sure the share price will go North. if eventually we get a 2p dividend I would be happy certainly for the time being anyway.

[hutch_pod] 27/1/2015 17:45

Well a few buyers would help.

[rupert1] 27/1/2015 16:55

With gold price strengthening, the dollar strengthening and first gold pour (whatever that means) due this year, it surprises me that the share price remains at the same level it was this time last year, pre funding and with the Writ of Kalikasan still pending.

It's almost as if someone wants to keep it low.

[lord badger] 22/1/2015 16:00

Ask price just dropped below the mid price!

[hutch_pod] 22/1/2015 15:16

Apologies LB, updated for my (rather glaring) typo.

[holism] 22/1/2015 12:36

Hutch, I did look at it, NPV is best measure at the moment.Its bullish though. I invested in this years ago before Jonathan Beardsworth's tenure. The promise of increased bonanza reserves hasn't materialised but the quality of the team looks good.

[hutch_pod] 22/1/2015 11:30

Well i like the 12.5p share Allenby calculation as you can back into it. I understand they used key assumptions of:

$1300 gold
$474 LOM op costs/oz
96700 oz pa
35% tax
13% discount rate
10 year life of mine

And simply NPV / share.

[tombarr] 22/1/2015 11:29

The critical local issues are all resolved, i.e. the doubly failed speculative environmental writ and removal of artisan miners (happily dumping mercury and cyanide in the bushes and ditches no doubt, but that never got mentioned by environmental activists). It would seem that MTL have created an environmentally friendly, community responsible project, as far as mines go. That has to have a value on sale.

[holism] 22/1/2015 11:24

Is 12.5p per share the real deal? Most brokers over price, I always thought 20p was the target but I cant find my calculations which appear to be very far out.Corporate action is needed to get some liquidity but that's been an issue for quite some time.