Met Ltd Nm Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 19/1/2006 18:01

Bob Carver ...
sees a February rollover ...


... and an October 2006 Low:
(in reaction to: looks like a lower high in the volume oscillator)
"a larger Magic-T is building with a centerpost in October. We're in the accumulation phase of a much bigger move to the upside, which should start at the October low with the expected bottom in the 4-year cycle.

-
Here's Why
Posted By: Bob Carver
Date: Thursday, 19 January 2006, at 7:23 p.m.

In Response To: Re: We Will Know After the Big One (Steven)
( Bob, Do you know why he centres his T at the end of 2002, thus predicting March 2007 as a high? Do you agree? Is it because it's a split bottom and thus he has placed his T in the centre of the split?)

The reason is that he is putting it in middle of the triple bottom. He has found the projections to be more accurate when he does that.

I think you have to look on the long term Ts as simply an indication of approximately how long the uptrend will last and use more precise tools (including shorter term Ts) as you approach the right side of the large T. For instance, his 1987 T had a right side which finished up in late 1999, but for the SPX and NASDAQ, the actual top was in March 2000. The Dow, of course, topped in January 2000. So, you can probably start to get more prone to selling at those late cycle tops because one of them is going to be the top before the really big bear market and you don't want to overstay your welcome.

(Intestingly, if the T was placed at the March 2003 low, which also corresponds with a sharp advance/breakout in the A-D line, you would then get a projected top of March 2008. Very interesting "stuff" indeed. : Steven )

Personally, I think we could easily have a 20-40% "correction" in 2007, then just keep on climbing into the 2013-2018 period (former for the US, latter for Australia).

[energyi] 19/1/2006 11:43

NINA COOPER CHARTS- and their resulting "calls for 2006"

1/ SPX : ST, moves above 1300, towards 1400, then collapses


2/ Bonds : a drop, then a huge rally


3/ Dollar : 5th Wave down (maybe a Big drop), then an eventual rally


4/ Gold : A drop below $561, then $541 is bearish: targets $488


5/ Real Estate index : final Z wave: final segment of final segment


2006 is a Transitional year.
Dollar headed down. Rates near end of up move. Stocks near a peak.
A significant change. Second half could be very different

[frank spencer] 18/1/2006 14:16

I see owing's tip ran true to form.

[wonging] 18/1/2006 12:33

energyi, why the general public beleive it is an even bigger one to me!

;-)

p.s my cot charts are futures only, have you a link to futures and options cot charts by any chance?

cheers

[energyi] 18/1/2006 09:50

SKY News:
Property Top Of Broker List
Mortgage brokers are predicting property will outperform shares during the coming five years. Around 55% of mortgage brokers said they thought putting money into property would yield the greatest profits between now and 2011.

= = =

Why the media reports the SPIN of vested interests as "NEWS" is a mystery to me

[energyi] 16/1/2006 11:06

THEY WILL REAP WHAT THEY SOW... ?

Halifax... + 3.0%
Nationwide + 0 - 3%
RICS...... + 4.0%
Rightmove. + 4.0%
Hometrack. + 1.0%



Property price rise gathers pace in December
By Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter

OPTIMISM that the housing market is reviving and could be set for a rosy start to the new year was boosted yesterday as Halifax figures showed that property prices had risen at their fastest annual pace for seven months during December.
Average house prices nationwide jumped by a hefty 1 per cent last month, on the heels of a similar gain in November, according to the survey from the nation's biggest lender.

After a spate of other indications that property market conditions are gathering strength, the buoyant back-to-back price gains will fuel hopes that the worst of the property downturn may have passed.

The two robust months left prices in December up 5.1 per cent on a year earlier, although this annual increase was still the weakest reported by Halifax for a full calendar year since 1995, underlining the rollercoaster ride endured by estate agents and homeowners during 2005.

Despite the recent run of signals that the property market is enjoying a rise in buyer interest and activity, and that prices have stabilised, lenders?existing forecasts for property prices this year remained subdued for now.

Halifax is forecasting that prices will climb by only a modest 3 per cent over 2006, not much more than inflation. Other lenders have a similar view.

Halifax figures showed that northern parts of Britain are recording bigger house-price rises than southern areas for a third consecutive year, narrowing the North-South divide in the property market. Prices in Scotland rose by 14.8 per cent during the year to December. Londoners also did well, enjoying a 6.7 per cent house-price rise last year, which took the average price to ?57,120, above the ?50,000 mark for the first time.

[energyi] 16/1/2006 09:34

The NASDAQ is Peaking ... says Robert McHugh

There is a major Bearish Divergence occurring between the NASDAQ 100's price trend and the trend of its 10 day average Advance/Decline line, warning of a significant decline once this topping pattern completes. We believe the topping pattern is ending a 39 month rally from October 2002 that was merely a correction up of a major decline that started in 2000. The decline from 2000 is taking shape as a down-up-down move, correcting the incredibly long and powerful Bull market from 1971 through 2000. The down move from 2000 to 2002 was the "(A)" down move. The rally since is the "(B)" up move. Coming next - and probably starting in the next few months is the "(C)" down wave.



His Elliottwave count:


..MORE:

= 2/
In Response To: Some numbers (bandel) / from "K"

Regarding the 'other story', I've seen a lot of work suggesting March/April as a top and then a cyclical down move into October (followed by a strong up move from there per some). Usually the targets are around 11400 DOW and 1245 SPX by March or therabouts.

In fact I've seen this opinion so much that I now tend to think that it's no longer the most likely outcome. It would be 'too easy' if this were to play out in such a predicted fashion, even if there is a decent chance that it plays out somewhat like this as it's not a whacky scenario. It's just becoming too consensus among the non consensus crowd, if that makes any sense.

No, I suspect we'll start selling off soon, or alternatively when we get to these targets we will sail right though them to new ATHs on the DOW, at least until the shorts have covered and gone long as equities become the new 'property'.

Although I suspect a modest down week lies ahead, the specs have added to their already net short position in the futures per the COT report, such that any sell off is likely to be met by short covering until we get some sustantive news from earnings or geopolitics either way.

= 3/ from Steven

I hear what you say (and maybe I was a bit harsh), but then every man, dog and newsletter writer "predicted" the rally off the SEASONAL October low. Even I got it right!

Likewise, every man, dog and newsletter writer is "predicting" the upcoming SEASONAL high and the then "guaranteed" decline into the 4 year low.

hmmmm.....maybe because everybody is predicting an upcoming high and a 4 year low, maybe we will front run both????

Talking of newsletter writers, our very own Bob Carver has a much better track record and is perhaps the only newsletter writer that I do listen too.

The thing about McHugh is that he always seems to be calling the top (well, he does on the odd occasion that I have linked to his site via Safe Haven), plus, he is always looking for that C-wave decline to sub 2002 lows. Now, maybe he will ultimately be correct (some of what he says regarding the fundamentals is correct afterall - and who am I to say that he wont be), but given that he has called the top so many times now, if and when he gets it right, it will surely be more down to "luck" than judgement.

Another interesting observation is that he sort of associates the upcoming war with Iran with the wave C decline. Yet, by his count there should be a wave C decline regardless of any news event i.e. it is in the charts. (Not to mention that it is highly unlikely that there will be a war with Iran.)

Anyway, given all of the above and along with his Nasdaq call of 550 in the near future, I just cant take him seriously (as I cant any perma-bulls calling for DJIA 36,000.)

[energyi] 15/1/2006 21:00

Whatever became of "Risk"?

Posted By: Energyi
Date: Sunday, 15 January 2006, at 3:58 p.m.

I think 2006 will be the year it is rediscovered.

We started this year with: + The lowest ever VIX/VXO (as of early January), + Only 7 out of 76 forecasters in Business Week expecting a lower Dow for the year, + A majority of economists expecting lower long term rates and NO recession, despite an invested yield curve, + Dow pushing up to the highest levels in several year, with DJ Transports at record levels (ignoringf somehow $63 oil.)

THIS is the year the reliable 4-year is scheduled to bottom, but the market is behaving as if there is NO risk. Is this an ideal set-up or have I just lost my rose-coloured glasses?

@:

[energyi] 14/1/2006 18:16

Real Estate Prices Decline in 2006

In 2006, we are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the housing market. In recent weeks, home loan applications have fallen to a 3 _ year low. I believe that most everyone who could take advantage of the low interest rates and exotic mortgages have already done so. The continual rise in interest rates will undoubtedly price new home buyers out of the market. Even with an interest only loan or an adjustable rate mortgage, higher interest rates will most clearly mean higher mortgage payments. Given the fact that your average American consumer has negative savings and that the average income is not rising sharply, I see a sharp decline in the demand for new home sales in 2006.

Coupled with a decline in the demand for new home sales, will be an increase of available homes on the market. This increase in supply will likely come from the following sources:

1. New Homes Still Being Built

Even in the midst of declining home loan applications, there are still new homes being built. Because of the multi year rise in real estate prices, home builders have scrambled to build homes and profit from this irrational real estate demand. As a result, there are still a number of developments in the works and new homes that will soon come on the market.

2. The Speculative Home Buyer

According to the National Associations of Realtors, 36 % of the home sales in 2004 were second home purchases. Although I haven't been able to find out the number for 2005, I can assume that the percentage is even higher. As real estate prices start declining, I believe you will see the speculative home buyers sell their houses and take profits (or cut their losses). Because most of these second home buyers view these homes as an investment, they are more quickly to act in the midst of declining real estate prices.

3. The Over-extended Buyer

As it stands, the average American has negative savings. In addition, because they have adjustable rate mortgages, they will be forced to pay more on their mortgage as interest rates continue to head higher. Most of these home buyers do not have the necessary savings income growth potential to keep up with rise of their mortgage. As a result, the likely scenario is that these homeowners will be forced to default on their mortgages and walk away from their homes.

In the midst of growing inflationary concerns, I believe that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in 2006. The degree to which they raise interest rates will determine how fast this real estate market will begin to unravel.

The Real Estate Burst Effect on the Economy

Without question, the real estate bubble has fueled this US economy in the last several years. I am amazed at the amount of times I have heard about a friend or neighbor who decided to refinance their home, get an adjustable rate mortgage, and take cash out for some type of trivial expenditure. Why not? They would argue. I just made a 200k profit this year. This same irrational exuberance reminds me of the "paper millionaires" in the Dotcom era who pointed to their stock portfolio as a means to justify their spending. Although this spending served to fuel the economy, it also served to further fuel this bubble and send your typical consumer further and further into debt. In the future, those that can afford to pay the additional amount on their higher mortgage will have to "tighten their belt" and not spend as much money in the economy. Consequently, they will hold on to their car a couple of years longer, not frequent their local restaurant as often, and cut back on their overall spending. In turn, this will flow into the economy and we will most likely see a much needed recession as individuals refocus on savings and the re-accumulation of wealth.

The Implications of an Upcoming Recession

Generally speaking, a recession is a prolonged period of time where the economy is contracting. During a recession, you will most likely see consumers spending less money and saving more, a subsequent decline in the stock market, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in real estate prices.

...MORE:

[energyi] 14/1/2006 17:54

Roubini: "Increased probability of a systemic risk episode." ...
PDQ - Thu, Jan 12, 2006 - 05:53 PM

[...]

- Increased probability of a systemic risk episode. The range of risks and vulnerability in the global economy described above increase the risk of a systemic risk episode as the 1987 stock market crash or the 1995 bond market rout or the 1998 LTCM near collapse. The main sources of a systemic risk episode could be three (see [a www.rgemonitor.com link] for more details):

First, a perverse interaction between the housing market bubble bursting, the hedging activities of the GSEs, the mortgage backed securities (MBS) market and the negative convexity of these MBSs.

Second, a major US corporation bankruptcy and the worsening credit problems for a range of US corporates leading to systemic effects in the credit derivatives market where counterparty and operational risk are severe and where the pricing of CDSs, CDOs and synthetic CDOs has not been stressed yet by an episode of increased corporate defaults following an economic slowdown.

Third, protectionist pressure such as a vote on the Schumer-Graham bill leading to a dollar crash, a bond market crash and a stock market collapse; indeed, the 1987 stock market crash was in part triggered by rising trade tensions and protectionist threats between the US, Japan and Europe on how much the US dollar should fall following the twin deficit period of the early 1980s. Thus, one of the largest risks of a vote on the Schumer-Graham bill is that of a severe market reaction to it.

[...]

From Phoebe's link...

[energyi] 14/1/2006 17:37

Nouriel Roubini - "Trends and Forecasts for the U.S. and Global Economy in 2006"
phoebe - Thu, Jan 12, 2006 - 04:55 PM

This is a long article by a noted economist and it is followed by comments.



Here is just the conclusion:

"In summary: while the consensus view on the US and global economy is another "goldilocks" year of high growth, low inflation and a continuation of the BW2 regime of vendor financing of the US twin deficits, I see risks and vulnerabilities that will lead to a significant US and global slowdown, the beginning of the unraveling of BW2 regime and significant negative effects on a wide range of asset prices. I give a 2/3 probability to this latter pessimistic scenario while I give to the consensus optimistic scenario a 1/3 probability. There are factors that may prove the consensus scenarios right for another year; but since this scenario implies the continuation of the global imbalances and the maintenance of global disequilibria that will become increasingly unstable, the continuation of the BW2 regime for another year would imply that the necessary eventual adjustment may risk to end up more disorderly as the necessary global policy adjustments are further postponed

[james111] 02/1/2006 11:54

Below are the shares already purchased, CFE and IDN I only have approx 50% of the circa £10k I will be looking to add to as and when.

CFE Coffee Republic 375000 £4500.00 £ 0.0120
GWP GW Pharm. 10000 £12200.00 £ 1.2200
IDN Idn Telecom 200000 £4500.00 £ 0.0225
JQV Jacques Vert 82500 £9883.50 £ 0.1198
NWT Newmark Sec 700000 £12600.00 £ 0.0180
THR Thor Mining 300000 £9420.00 £ 0.0314

[james111] 02/1/2006 11:21

to open up with here are my holdings as of now for this portfolio.

1.Mining stock THR has intersts in 2 mines in austrailia tests just been done on molyhill to check out levels of molybdenum & tungston, results of tests due first week jan.

2.Textiles JQV momentum seems to be building ahead of results due early jan. any good news will push jqv forward fast as many shares in safe institutional hands (over 57%)directors have also been buying.

3. Pharma GWP this could be the big one, Sativex already approved in Canada and now catalonia, so many things can make this lift off. approval in UK has to come thru sooner rather than later, so many different conditions it is being linked with MS, Rheumatoid Arthritis, cancer and even weight loss, I am sure more will be added to the list.The size of the potential market is.............................................

4. Coffee Republic CFE Looks like they are changing the way they are going and will develope in a coffee/deli franchise opperation. bit of a spec but one to add in the list.

5. NWT I have been in and out of this over the years still waiting for it to happen. I am sure it will and hopefully this is the year.

6. IDN telecom another low cap stock and its in profit! results out in jan which should be in the 920 to 970K area. They have many new contracts and hopefully will get a revaluation after the figures are out.

dyor etc

[james111] 02/1/2006 10:55

This thread is where I am putting my ideas for 2006, I will be investing in around 10 stocks putting in an circa £10k in each, I will not sell durring 2006, on Dec 31st 2006. I will compare the percentage gain/loss against my trading portfolio.
Some stocks are already bought ie durring last few days of 2005 others will be purchased in the first 2 weeks of january.
All comments are appreciated, maybe you could tell me your ideas for winners.
Lets hope we all have a great and profitable year.

Regards James

[djalan] 01/1/2006 13:51

My tip for 2006
Consolidated Minerals CNM
Pays a healthy divi, 'bout 6.5% at this price
dyor

[nikolaos17] 01/1/2006 03:21

HAPPY NEW YEAR

[myoldmate] 01/1/2006 00:32

Right back atcha good buddy and may all your investments double!

[new winning year] 01/1/2006 00:00

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL THE GOOD



My safe investment for the year 2006 and beyond is
Rolls Royce

current Bid price 427.5 1st January 2006

[knowing] 28/12/2005 00:01

A sensible tip for 2006:

SPS (Superscape)

Superscape was trading as high as 60p (now 23p) on the promise of revenue growth and profitability. This was backed up by a sucessful placing of stock at 38p primarily to institutional investors.

A profit warning was then issued which, due to a delay in deployments, saw the price obliterated to it's precent level. In reality the price drop was out of the hands of the SPS management team as the networks themselves had delayed getting the games to thier customers.

If you read the recent news flow and follow the SPS thread you will see that deployments have actually beaten anything that was expected. This will exponentially increase the revenue to SPS and bring them to profitability very shortly.

The worldwide growth in gaming is expected to explode and coupled with the fact that SPS is presently "up for sale" it could become a great New Years gift for any holders.

[english bigblls] 20/12/2005 12:55

SER - Sefton Resources possible 12-bagger in 2006.