Merrill Lynch World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 31/5/2006 08:17

trading at quite a discount to NAV even after today's plunge in base metal stocks . But sentiment really bearish even though base metal prices seem to be recovering !

[hectorp] 24/5/2006 10:57

I think I was being very 'local'. Glad I was out of MLW short yesterday though!
Short now, as a bit of insurance against my long stocks GFM etc.

[oxford blue] 22/5/2006 15:08

Dow and 'daq both down - which bounce, Hec?

[hectorp] 22/5/2006 14:41

Phew - US bounce... closed short... but still very close watch.

[arja] 22/5/2006 10:59

hi Hectorp,
good luck with if . I am still in Vilnius but not the most auspicious time to be abroad with markets plummeting - bad timing on my part again !!

[hectorp] 22/5/2006 08:56

Well I doubled my short position, and still am.
MLW Down 14p already today.

[hectorp] 18/5/2006 11:35

I'd still propose increasing my short MLW and indeed adding a short BLT if copper and zinc doesn't rally today. ( IMO of course ).
Gold is looking fairly steady.

[arja] 18/5/2006 09:12

spot on with that comment . the share price just weent up about 10p AFTER the rally in metal shares on Uk market !

[hectorp] 18/5/2006 08:54

Well I dumped the warrants again yesterday morning.
I like the way the Fund itself lags the big miners so you get a good chance to bail out if you see BLT RIO or Anglo do something fast. So far so good still short. I do hope this doesn't last more than a couple of days more due to my longs elsewhere.

[arja] 17/5/2006 22:31

of course the warrants have no intrinsic value and all time value . But more difficult to value because of rollover terms. Warrants always have the potential to finish worthless as will happen in this case IF ( big IF) the resource boom is over !

[buzztrader] 17/5/2006 16:42

The warrants are definitely overvalued here considering the conversion terms and the current share price. I bought MLW a number of times around 400p and sold all at 442. Got into the warrants at 40p to sell at 59p.
It does appear a bit difficult to measure the correlation between the share price and the warrant at this stage. I would look at 30p odd but that figure is just what I feel to be of value and upside potential.

[hectorp] 17/5/2006 13:58

No, but I went short the stock and long the warrant !
Inflation figs in US not happy.

[hectorp] 17/5/2006 08:18

I should add I don't believe this was more than a correction. IF it is, I'll be proved wrong.

[hectorp] 17/5/2006 08:17

Buying the Warrants MLWT now.

[arja] 16/5/2006 09:25

discount to NAV widening even allowing for drop when NAV for today announced tomorrow !! Scary stuff and i am sorry I kept some shares ! who knows when bounce will come!!

[jumbo66] 16/5/2006 06:20

cvrd,to recive higher prices, nice for us no 2 biggist holding,the rest should follow[hd]

[arja] 15/5/2006 07:49

warrants could be extremely dangerous short term IF there is a more than a minor correction in metal prices!

[hectorp] 15/5/2006 07:37

... not half! sitting at support at 405p... if that goes today...
but the sector is not dear historically yet. So a retracement should offer a good buying opportunity. Look yet again at the warrants too.

[tpaulbeaumont] 14/5/2006 09:39

i think it may have topped for now at 470

[buffin] 10/5/2006 16:24

NAV rising nicely.

[hectorp] 10/5/2006 09:50

I think it was Lex in the FT or Phillip Coggan stated that historically mining companies are trading on lowish p/e's still ie, around 12, and in fact since 2000 Market highs on were genrally over 30, now they are ounly 14-16, so there is huge scope for another leg or two of this bull market. However its the retracements or corrections I want to avoid as they would be quite deep.
I'm allowing for a 20% ! correction in metals especially copper silver and maybe zinc this summer. But would the metals PRODUCERS themselves fall far if the metals do? MAybe not... and they have not been rallying strongly of recent weeks. Mine have been sitting flat ( Canadians) while copper rallied. So it might be safe to hold MLW here even if there is a correction. That correction will then be bought into.

[arja] 09/5/2006 07:38

yes, discount to NAV seeems to be widening. I guess it is because investors are nervous that metal prices may top out soon as Hectorp touched on . But charts of most base metals still look good .

[bruce meinhoff] 05/5/2006 15:06

Hello H. Nice to see a familiar name on this one.

I trade this share quite often but its lost its tangibility with its own investments. Can't quite work it out.

[hectorp] 05/5/2006 13:36

looks like MLW will again start to take off here... may buy the warrants back, but I am nervous about a large correction, which may never come, but should do at some point.