Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 11/1/2017 18:18

Great news on the day PoG goes vertical!

[adyfc] 11/1/2017 17:05

Cracking stuff from Medusa, served up in a way they only know how. Roll onto the 400k/oz promised a few years back. Full steam ahead.

[sleveen] 11/1/2017 17:04

20% if you're lucky.

Thumping great loss of cash... shocking

The Company’s production guidance for FY2016-17, initially set at 105,000 to 115,000 ounces of gold at All-In-Sustaining-Costs (“AISC”) of US$1,000 to US$1,100 per ounce has now been revised to between 85,000 to 95,000 ounces of gold at AISC of US$1,250 to US$1,350 per ounce.

[deka1] 11/1/2017 16:56

Well its gona get clouted tonight, could be 20% off after this.

[stevea171] 11/1/2017 15:38

>>> "Medusa delivered 21,157 ounces of gold at AISC of US$1,334 per ounce for the September 2016 quarter and anticipates gold production of around 17,000 ounces for the December 2016 quarter."
.... "around 17,000 ounces for the December 2016 quarter."

So 11 days past the end of the quarter the MD is still not aware of the production number to the end of December? Either they have completely inadequate reporting procedures or this is complete BS. Just like they have been putting out for the past 5 or 6 years.
They must have known they would be unable to meet guidance a month ago but as usual have kept quiet for as long as possible.

It seems they cannot do any single thing to plan and to schedule. They are never in control of events. Always the victim. No one resigns. No one is ever responsible.

Insiders were aware of this announcement at least a day early (and possibly a month ago) and sold in the market last night. I watched the L2 equivalent and wondered what was going on with the MML share price with gold at 6 week highs.

What else could possibly go wrong? How about the Services shaft is delayed by another 6 months to end of 2017 coming up next? Or another capital raising because of likely H1 losses plus Q3 losses coming up?

So much for free cash flow or a dividend. Good bye to those!!!
But free options to the boys on the Board? No problem!

[goodgrief] 11/1/2017 13:10

Just one disappointment after another.

CP42Kx0711

"Today's revised production guidance (85k - 95k, $1,250 - $1,350) unfortunately will only enhance MML's reputation as the company that just keeps on taking away... and further delay the desired turnaround."

[stevea171] 11/1/2017 10:12

ANNOUNCEMENT
11 January 2017
Revised Mid-Year Production Guidance
(ASX: MML)
Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;), through its Philippines affiliates, Philsaga Mining Corporation (“PMC”) and Mindanao Mineral Processing & Refining Corporation (“MMPRC”), wish to advise a production guidance revision following the assessment of its preliminary December 2016 quarterly results.
The Company’s production guidance for FY2016-17, initially set at 105,000 to 115,000 ounces of gold at All-In-Sustaining-Costs (“AISC”) of US$1,000 to US$1,100 per ounce has now been revised to between 85,000 to 95,000 ounces of gold at AISC of US$1,250 to US$1,350 per ounce.

Medusa delivered 21,157 ounces of gold at AISC of US$1,334 per ounce for the September 2016 quarter and anticipates gold production of around 17,000 ounces for the December 2016 quarter. The original guidance profile for FY16-17 was presented as being back-end loaded, but with the anticipated poor results for the December 2016 quarter, the production plan for the second half of the year does not have the flexibility to recover lost production and match the original guidance.
The anticipated poor production for the December 2016 quarter and revised mid-year production guidance can be attributed to the following factors:

The September quarterly results were as expected, with a reduced overall grade relating to the increased amount of development ore in the mill feed blend. For the December quarter the feed grade has recovered but not to the expected level. The overall mine production output has been below plan. The tonnage shortfall relates to much higher mine-shaft maintenance requirements, thus impacting the hoisting availability for the quarter. This relates to the wear rate of the L8 Shaft guides. For safety reasons “Medusa” will continue with an accelerated L8 Shaft guide replacement strategy through the March quarter, resulting in overall lower shaft availability. “PMC” has arranged through a third-party service provider to conduct a full assessment of the L8 Shaft in late January 2017.
The L8 shaft availability has an overall impact on the mine performance including; manpower, materials movements and ore hoisting capabilities. The higher planned production rates for the March quarter will be pushed out by a full quarter, thus requiring the revised guidance.

For further information please contact:
Boyd Timler, Managing Director
[phone]

[cp42kx07] 11/1/2017 10:10

tightfist

Today's revised production guidance (85k - 95k, $1,250 - $1,350) unfortunately will only enhance MML's reputation as the company that just keeps on taking away... and further delay the desired turnaround.

The L8 guide wear rate will lead to delays and increased costs.

Tomorrow's ASX opening could be painful to behold.

Also, MML continues to look leaky where bad news is concerned. Is this another indicator of weak management?

[atlantic57] 11/1/2017 07:00

Justin thank you for that helpful post.
It strikes me that the many 'gurus' predicting huge increases in the gold price
Have been much to early in their calls, so it is best to seek out quality Companies.
Golds day in the sun may be still some years away

[tightfist] 10/1/2017 12:00

Hi Steve,

The release regarding the apppointment of BT as MD and his elevation to the BoD is certainly minimalist, except for his CV! However, I see it positively- my interpretation is that he has earned the trust and respect of Andrew Teo and Roy Daniel, which RG was plainly not going to do. They surely would not appoint BT if the other directors anticipated that MML was going to fall flat on it's face in the foreseeable.

Looking back the last MD appointee appears to have been PH-B between June 2011 and August 2014; the MD position has been vacant though the interim GD, RG, BT era, thankfully now coming to an end.


Hi cp,

Clearly we need rebuilding of management credibility which is always going to take considerable time. After meeting Timler and Teo in September (and seeing Daniel again) I was satisfied, but the proof of the pudding etc. etc. The on-schedule completion (timing re-stated on Timler's shift!) of ventilation, pumping and E15 top-works is a reasonable start. A lot of good work is proceeding at pace at E15 and on L8-L10 and hopefully pay-day is later this year as production rises whilst AISC surely has to fall substantially.

However, to get back to $2+ may not just need say 130kOzpa production rate but also a decent reserves/resources uplift (inferred LoM) and Phil. political normalisation? - or a sustained rise in PoG? - or a concerted buy-back?

Incidentally MML currently trades at 55% discount to 2016AR NAV, and additionally US$260m of assets written-down in the 2015AR still physically exist to deliver value.

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 10/1/2017 09:16

Positive that Boyd is tied down he must have impressed.

Hi Deka thanks man hope you and you're family are all well.
I'm hoping for some snow up here IN Glasgow so I can get up to glen coe and Snow board 🏂 soon.


I wonder if we'll see Justin buying back in before the start of FYI 2017-18.

A few pie in the sky numbers to keep me motivated here! Best case scenario!!

Average POG of 1350 from August this year onwards and assuming the service lift is finished around then which reduces the AISC to 850.

Forward Production from completion of lift shafts of 140,000 annually.

That gives us

(1350 - 850) × 140,000= US$70,000,000 or Aus $95,000,000

More realistic going forward after development work is complete

(1250 -900) ×130,000

= US $45,500,000. Or Aus $61M


Whilst I think that Medusa will always be developing the mine and with that aisc will flucuate,at some point they will hit a sweet spot again and they will be throwing off cash.. The market will take notice then and hopefully I'll be selling up ,around. 4 bucks in a few years. If i dont throw in the towel before then!!

[stevea171] 09/1/2017 09:46

The significance of this announcement is opaque. Although it does not say what this appointment changes, my assumption is that he has now been elevated to a Board member. Up till now, like Geoff previously he was excluded from the Board.

Whatever targets he was set as CEO, it must be assumed were met by 31/12 or he gave a good explanation for why not. Hopefully there will now be some stability in this position for at least the next few years and the company will begin to make some long overdue progress that has been largely absent for the past 6 years. Hence the woeful share price and sentiment .....

ANNOUNCEMENT
9 January 2017
MANAGING DIRECTOR APPOINTMENT
(ASX: MML)
The Board of Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;) is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Boyd Timler (currently the Company’s Chief Executive Officer) as Managing Director with immediate effect.
Mr Timler brings extensive operational experience to Medusa, having spent the first 15 years of his career working in underground narrow high grade gold projects culminating at Kinross Gold’s Hoyle Pond Mine in Canada, and subsequently at Placer Dome following a joint venture between the two. He has held senior level positions at operations in Canada, USA, Australia, Tanzania, Zambia and Brazil, and has taken expansion projects from pre -feasibility through board approval to operations. He has been responsible for operating budgets of up to USD$800 million, sustaining capital of +$150 million and brownfield expansion projects of +$350 million.

Previously, Mr Timler also held the positions of Chief Operating Officer of Beadell Resources Limited, Managing Director at Lumwana Mining Company, in Zambia, and has also served as General Manager at various mine sites owned in Australia and Africa. Mr Timler holds a B.Sc. Specialization in Geology from the University of Alberta, and is a GAICD with over 30 years of progressive international experience in exploration, technical services, operations, project evaluations and senior/executive management.


Part 1
-
Director’s relevant interests in securities of which the director is the registered holder In the case of a trust, this includes interests in the trust made available by the responsible entity of the trust
Note: In the case of a company, interests which come within paragraph (i) of the definition of “notifiable interest of a director” should be disclosed in this part.
+ See chapter 19 for defined terms.
11/3/2002
Appendix 3X Page 1
Number & class of securities
(1) 50,000 fully paid ordinary shares
(2) 1,200,000 unlisted employee options
issued on 24 November 2016 separated into 4 (four) equal tranches of 300,000 per tranche at the following exercise prices:
Tranche
Number of Options
Exercise price
A
300,000
A$1.00
B
300,000
A$1.25
C
300,000
A$1.50
D
300,000
A$1.75
Total 1,200,000
Expiry date: 23 November 2020.

[tightfist] 09/1/2017 07:27

Yes, Boyd Timler had been appointed as MD so he has earned Andrew Teo's confidence. That bodes well for me.

Cheers, tightfist

[eintracht] 09/1/2017 05:31

Ann out on ASX about Managing Director

[cp42kx07] 07/1/2017 09:32

Hi tightfist

Certainly MML's valuation does continue to appear extreme on any metric that I generate. But as we well know, MML has managed to disappoint repeatedly over many years and investor trust is low.

Therefore I'm not expecting to see much positive share price action until later this year unless the PoG takes off dramatically. Given a PoG around $1,300 and successful completion of the upgrade works we could easily see AUD 2+. Especially if institutional interest is maintained.

[deka1] 06/1/2017 21:06

Hope so Andy, and all the best to you , that was the first million + trade session for some time

[ilostthelot] 06/1/2017 17:41

Its been a decent bounce from 43 c. Maybe that's the bottom in!? and the start of what will hopefully be a prosperous 2017 for MML shareholders.

[tightfist] 01/1/2017 21:43

Hi CP42,

Many thanks for your in-depth analysis of the fundamentals of MML which yet again seem to confirm the extreme valuation anomaly. Current Mkt Cap is around US$73m backed by US$19.6m cash at the end of Q1, with the prospect of considerable free cash generation in 2017 as Capex falls away and production increases.

As Polaris suggests, maybe a weak Q2 result (hinted at again in the latest presentation) may lead to a (hopefully final!) share price lurch before a long and profitable march North - wait and see......

The presentation leaves the prospect of a little more E15/haulage slippage but otherwise I didn't spot any dicey news. If we believe the market typically runs 6-9 months ahead of results, now is the time to see share price traction IF the new Timler management has earned credibility.

The timing of Teo's share purchase was unfortunate having immediately got drowned by the PoG fall-out, but nonetheless welcome. If the BoD don't have confidence to implement a sustainable dividend policy some buy-backs would not go amiss.

Cheers, tightfist

[rrr] 01/1/2017 10:31

Very good CP42, thank you. It is an interesting test of the scores!

[cp42kx07] 01/1/2017 09:12

FWIW I ran a quick screen for UK / US / Canada / Australia markets (excluding OTC / Pink Sheets) and limited to GICS Materials / Materials / Metals & Mining companies. There were 1,889 companies (obviously most of these are not PM-related). MML’s results were as follows:

Piotroski F-score: 8 (good is 8+, maximum 9)

O’Shaughnessy VC1: 1 (centile number i.e. within top 1%)

Greenblatt Magic Formula: 7th/1,889

MFIE ERP5: 1st/1,889

The areas in which MML is poor are momentum (clearly!) and absence of dividend. Perhaps these will change in 2017.

[ilostthelot] 28/12/2016 11:45

Thank you Cp42. I also appreciate you sharing your information and research.

[cp42kx07] 24/12/2016 10:38

deka1

You're welcome. My contributions are insignificant in comparison to chip's on all his various threads but it's still interesting to see the tables for various scoring systems (even if one takes them "with a pinch of salt").

We can but hope that 2017 will be the year of MML's renaissance!

Merry Christmas to you and all stalwart MML shareholders.


CP

[deka1] 24/12/2016 09:47

CP42, thanks for sharing your results, I can imagine how long it takes to put stuff like this together,
To you and Chip thanks for all the effort you guys put in, so happy Christmas and all the best to you and all other long suffering MML holders,OUR DAY WILL COME lol,the fact that a bank that gets a mention in the pog manipulation cases (UBS)is a holder speaks a lot also for the future imo