Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 01/11/2016 11:20

Q1 FINANCIALS
As at 30 September 2016, the Company had total cash and cash equivalent in gold on metal account of approximately US$19.6 million (30 Sep 2016: US$22.0 million).
The Company sold 21,152 ounces of gold at an average price of US$1,315 per ounce in the June 2016 quarter (Jun 2016 quarter: 25,519 ounces sold at an average price of US$1,331 per ounce).

During the Sep 2016 quarter, the Company incurred;
 exploration expenditure (inclusive of underground exploration) of US$2.2 million (Jun 2016 quarter: US$4.0 million);
 US$4.0 million on capital works (inclusive of new Service Shaft) and associated sustaining capital at the mine and mill (Jun 2016 quarter: US$3.8 million);
 US$7.4 million on continued mine development (Jun 2016 quarter: US$5.3 million); and
 corporate overheads of US$2.1 million (Jun 2016 quarter: US$1.6 million).

In addition to the expenses highlighted above, which form part of AISC of US$1,334 per ounce for the Sep 2016 quarter (Jun 2016 quarter: AISC of US$1,088 per ounce; FY2015-16: AISC of US$999 per ounce), the Company also paid approximately US$2.0 million in indirect taxes (Value Added Tax [VAT], refundable in the form of tax credits).

[ilostthelot] 01/11/2016 10:22

You could well be right Atlantic with the gold price holding this up.
Thanks for the RmS mention Justin. I'll have a look into them.

[ilostthelot] 01/11/2016 08:27

Still sitting tight and suffering. It's cheap, for a good reason, but it looks very unloved and could well be heading lower.
How many more kitchen sinks do they have ?

[atlantic57] 01/11/2016 07:25

Thanks for the helpful comments.In all human relationships where trust is broken it is very difficult to rebuild.There is a long long way to go here.A rising gold price
Could be their saviour.

[justinjjbuk] 01/11/2016 00:37

Just went on Hot Copper where I reposted the above and there are almost no posts directly after the quarterly release. Was a time that ADVFN and HC would have been alive with posts after a quarterly. Shows how unloved this stock has become. Shame because I think the quality of the comments was some of the highest I've seen.

And 2 hours after the Aus open and the release of the quarterly MML has only traded 80,000 shares. That's only £30,000 worth! Gold help the stock if an institutional holder starts to sell it down.

[justinjjbuk] 31/10/2016 20:54

We'll see when Aus opens, but my sense is the market won't like this report. We knew it would be a horrible quarter cost-wise, but it still looks bad. And cash on the balance sheet actually fell.

I am particularly disappointed that ore mined is flat over the previous quarter. At the investor meeting in London, Boyd suggested that we would get more ore from the upper levels since was economic at the current gold price, and MML confirms this at the top of page 4 of the report. Yet despite this, ore mined across all levels hasn't moved. I understand the grade issues, but thought we would get a bit more dirt put through the mill.

We have also just had a tail wind of gold above $1,300 in calendar Q2 and Q3, so even as costs drop going forward some of that will be offset by the lower gold price. This puppy just cannot generate any cash. Compare this with RMS my favourite ASX-listed stock. This name added A$15 million in cash to its balance sheet in Q3 (excluding the capital raise) despite doing a battery of development and exploration work and having a hedge programme which will have blunted the windfall from $1,300 plus gold.

I also completely agree with Steve's observation about reporting late in the month being a red flag. There should be stock market adage in there somewhere. Perhaps "Reporting late, bloody well evacuate".

You could argue that this quarter was a kitchen sink one. But still don't think BT gave significant warning of how much of the kitchen would get thrown in. The game is 'under promise, over deliver', and I just don't see that philosophy in this report.

Full disclosure: I haven't owned this stock for a while now, but I believe every share has its price. But still way too early for me to consider going back in.

[polaris] 31/10/2016 09:29

There is nothing surprising in that Qly. MML is in a period of redevelopment and will not come out of it until the end of the current fiscal year. Don't expect much movement of the share price in the interim, unless either pog goes off current trading range or something comes up from MML that is off-plan.

regards,

Paul

[ilostthelot] 31/10/2016 07:00

60c support looks very fragile now.

[stoph] 31/10/2016 06:58

Production report is out 21157 oz of gold for the quarter. Production guidance unchanged for the year.
I shall let more knowledgeable minds than mine comment on the remainder of the report

[stevea171] 30/10/2016 23:53

As usual Medusa have left it to the last day permitted by the ASX to report another quarter's results - Q1 production. Not only the last day but sometimes they report after the close of the exchange on the last day.

Even under this new CEO they still can't be bothered to do any better and report any earlier like almost every other ASX listed mining company who reported long ago.
The implication is that they are hiding poor results as usual.
We shall see ...

[ilostthelot] 30/10/2016 20:09

I reckon you'll be waiting another 5 to 10 years before a 2008 style crash again by that time they'll probably be crashing back to today's level!!

[augustusgloop] 26/10/2016 20:52

I hold no shares at present.

I wait in anticipation of the next crash.
[Which I thought was imminent for the last 4 years.]

[ilostthelot] 26/10/2016 19:33

It's a fair point AG.. I'm willing to give the new CEO a bit more time though I'm kind of wishing I'd doubled my stake in AAZ rather than losing money here such is life!
Do you hold any gold miners currently?

[stevea171] 25/10/2016 10:33

OCEANAGOLD PROVIDES UPDATE ON ITS PHILIPPINES OPERATIONS
18 October 2016

Seems like the DENR will not be shutting down Oceana's operation on Luzon. More likely they were targetted for intimidation purposes of the whole Mining industry, but Oceana has been fighting back through the media and will not go quietly!

"The Company notes that, of the findings and recommendations outlined in the Audit Report, a number of them were discussed as a matter of routine with the DENR audit team during the DENR close out meeting following the completion of the audit in August. The findings in the Audit Report relate mostly to a need to further educate a broader group of stakeholders on specific aspects of the operations.

The vast majority of recommendations relate to the need to further expand the Company’s Information, Education and Communication (“IEC”) program. Furthermore, the “findings̶1; on the Didipio operations publicised during the DENR press conference on 26 September 2016, were not included as findings outlined in the Audit Report."

hxxp://www.oceanagold.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/161018-OceanaGold-DENR-Audit-Findings.pdf

[roguetreader] 25/10/2016 09:37

Hi tightfist
To be honest I've given up on guessing and expectations in the short term. I've been here so long I'm not going to make any decisions on the short term / quarterly announcements, unless they seriously contradict the annual strategy and forecast. Given the seriously cheap share price I don't think (hope) there is no serious downside unless they really screw up, whilst IMO upside is significant. So all in all I'm going to wait and see.
RT

[stevea171] 25/10/2016 09:22

Tightfist, Goldminer.

How many 'negative surprises' have there been in the past 5 years on the production front, development, earnings, progress in every possible way?
Is the market not so conditioned to yet another coming this week that it automatically assumes the worst?

Apart from the backloading statement there is some possible mitigation:
From notes of Mayfair presentation:
"5. Medusa to concentrate on improving and developing Co-O for now. Needs to provide some quarters of doing what it says to restore confidence. BT's production guidance is very likely to be conservative (ie 105-115k oz for FY 2016/17 because that's the way he is, his job may depend on it and given recent history.

7. There is plenty of stope development on Levels 1-5 but the ore is at a lower grade than on lower levels. In the past, relatively high production rates have been achieved by high grading from these levels which should not have happened. When the gold price fell to $1050 late last year it was not economic to produce as planned from these levels. Hence the accelerated movement of mine development down to Levels 9 and 10 via winzes which exacerbated the bottle necking of getting ore up the single L8 shaft that can service the deeper levels. Now that the gold price is back to $1350, some of the developed stopes on Levels 1-5 are economic again and can be put back into production quickly to boost output. There is a current initiative for extra shifts to be worked on Sundays to get some of this Level 1-5 ore out of the mine via the declines, Baggio shaft, etc that service these levels. This will likely be announced in the next quarterly update."

[tightfist] 25/10/2016 07:46

Hi RT,

It was notable that in last week's updated investor presentation the "backend loaded" commentary was underlined and bold! That suggests to me that we will substantially less than 25k in Q1 - any other guesses?

Cheers, tightfist

[arja] 24/10/2016 19:58

MML needs to hold 60 chart support level and has not recovered it's status as a good trading stock as it was years ago .

[roguetreader] 24/10/2016 13:42

Goldminer
You may be right but they have already said the production is going to be backloaded so it depends whether the market simply ignores this and marks down the share price anyway.
RT

[goldminer70] 24/10/2016 11:12

I believe MML is like a leaking ship. In the past the share price in the run up to the Quarterly report reflects the results in the report. I suppose it wouldn't be difficult for someone specialising in mining to get inside information on how things are going in the mine.
In the last month the share price has fallen from 75.5 cents on the 27th Sept to 64 cents today so I fear the results for the 1st Quarter which should be announced at the end of this week wont be very good.
Goldminer70

[bluelynx] 23/10/2016 17:49

CP42K

Thanks for your reply, I agree it's annoying that ISA's are not allowed to hold foreign currencies with the increased costs which this involves. But I hope the profits from PM miners will more than make up for these expenses in the long run.

I do not trade CFD / Spread Betting I'm not confident enough to trade in these.

[cp42kx07] 23/10/2016 13:26

BlueLynx

I suppose it all depends on one's portfolio.

Within an ISA all overseas holdings will be automatically converted to & from overseas currencies due to the ISA rules. Therefore the relevant costs are trading commission (usually insignificant for online brokers), FX conversion costs (anywhere from 0.3% to 1.5% each way) and periodic account fees (zero upwards). Clearly life is much more simple if all holdings are in GBP.

The same costs may be applicable with a non-ISA account but if one is interested in overseas markets it is essential, IMO, to ensure the broker offers the option to hold overseas currencies rather than being forced to constantly suffer the expensive FX conversion costs.

Although I have yet to fully migrate to IG I have been impressed by their customer service. Their trading platforms seem pretty sophisticated (dare I say complicated compared to the competition!). The only downside that I can see at present (presumably due to IG's spread-betting / CFD origins) is the absence of a fund / unit trust / OEIC option which will probably mean maintaining a secondary account elsewhere.

There are only a limited number of online brokers offering ASX market access.

One other possibility could be Beaufort Securities but their associations with HB Markets / Hoodless Brennan might make one think twice. I would be interested to know if anyone else here has any current thoughts on Beaufort Securities.

[bluelynx] 23/10/2016 09:25

Hi Roguetrader

I can understand your reservations but hopefully as this would only be a transfer of all my Shares to another to another Broker, and not a delisting of UK Shares and transferring them to a foreign exchange, it should hopefully be a much simpler procedure. But staying with Interactive Investor I feel is not an option as I have always viewed them as a very poor company. May be this is a misconception on my part.


CP42K

Thanks for suggesting IG I will check them out. I have read an article by Money Week
Which states that in their opinion iDealing.com or Sippdeal.co.uk (now AJ Bell) offer the best ISA accounts especially for trading US and Canadian Markets.