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MML Medusa Mining

97.50
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Medusa Mining LSE:MML London Ordinary Share AU000000MML0 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 97.50 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Medusa Share Discussion Threads

Showing 41551 to 41575 of 43975 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  1663  1662  1661  1660  1659  1658  1657  1656  1655  1654  1653  1652  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
03/8/2016
12:23
Greenleaf hi, current pog displayed by Bloomberg is $1370-30 , and the header price is showing $1363-30,how come ?
deka1
03/8/2016
10:13
Thanks WeeEck, it's appreciated.

As a default I am currently working through past trades onto a laptop which was updated on the 21st July. A bit laborious and does not include some statistical 'tweeks' that I had incorporated into my PC file in the interim - but at least I can keep all my important trading data.

Hopefully it will buy me time and provide current pricing for trades whilst I try and sort out this damned backup disk.

Cheers
Chip

chipperfrd
03/8/2016
09:54
Chip,
I don't know if you are a member but anytime I have had a computer problem. I have posted it on the Help With This Blaster Computer board on Motley Fool. They have never failed to give me the correct advice and are a very friendly bunch.

weeeck
03/8/2016
09:15
HELP!!

Does anyone have any experience of Seagate Personal Cloud network backup on Win10?

Excel has managed to corrupt one of my most important files - my 'Staircase' trading tool, which I use daily - so rather important to me!!

I have a 7Tb network backup drive which I now need to access for this single file from 08.30 this morning (last backup before my 3rd trade managed to crash Excel!) but cannot get to the network drive for some unknown reason.

Any ideas or similar experience out there?
Chip

chipperfrd
03/8/2016
08:51
The pog chart in the header appears correct - it comes from kitco.com - and the price looks the same as the spot price from ig.com
greenleaf
03/8/2016
04:59
the chart in our header is showing the pog $8/oz less than the price on Bloomers
been like that since yesterday, wonder why, advfn software glich ?

deka1
02/8/2016
14:46
Thanks Paul. The gold bull looks back on to me.
ilostthelot
02/8/2016
14:21
Hi all,

Personally, i think that there will always be development work to perform as new levels are developed and older, higher levels worked out. That is what you get with narrow vein, underground mining.

The main thing to look at going forward is what the debt position is (here there isn't any - ideal), free cash flow (this looks good for FY16-17 despite the higher AISC), life-of-mine (narrow vein so should be effectively infinite though never with much in the way of proven reserves) and the production (105-115 k oz flagged).

Then it is just a matter of putting a sensible multiple on the FCF after development costs. That is a matter of personal taste but i would expect 5-10 FCF based on life-of-mine. As many look only at proven reserves then i don't see much beyond 5x FCF here unless a new gold bull develops and then we will see valuations go above the top end of 10x FCF.

5x FCF here would be of the order of $150M, or close to $1AUD share price I see that as a conservative valuation and we are about 30% below that on last night close.

pog is at a crucial point for possible development of a new bull trend. If it can break above $1375 or so and hold then the long term downtrend from the highs will be broken. Then a new game may come to town.

We live in interesting times.

regards,

Paul

polaris
01/8/2016
23:25
Jury is still out Steve. The various dates for work completion for the service lift is helpful.
Let's hope the mine review will give us the plans going forward.
AISC.
Plan on spending to dig deeper to L 16

Will they use any of RG s plan for the mine?

ilostthelot
01/8/2016
11:35
They have a considerable amount of broken ore in stopes on the upper levels that I assume were part of the mine plan for FY 15/16 (120-130k oz). Then the gold price fell to $1050, Rob Gregory was discarded and plan X was embarked upon.

A panic rush to accelerate development below Level 8 to Levels 9 and 10 via winzes.
Re-design and re-engineer the Service shaft to go to Level 10 rather than Level 8 and add another year to the time scale for this project.
Conduct a new review of operations just a year after the previous one.

Now gold is back to $1350 but there is no mention of including the upper levels (levels 1-5) broken ore in stopes back into the mine plan for 2016/17 that would not require use of the L8 shaft to give a higher production rate.

You get RG's plans for 7.2 gm/t reserve grade mining apparently discarded with a massive fall in grade in Q3 (5.47 g/t), partly restored in the latest quarter (6.4 g/t). No mention of his payment scheme based on stope tons blasted rather than trammed being used or discarded. Target not met. RG's name not allowed to be mentioned.

All in all is this not a continuation of the complete shambles in the mine and mine planning?

stevea171
01/8/2016
08:50
Yeah it does give you confidences that it will be completed on time, Tightfist.
No mention of the deeper levels down to L16. Should we expect the development work and sinking of further shafts apon completion of the service lift?

ilostthelot
31/7/2016
07:04
Looking at the Q4 report there is a lot of Service Shaft info now being provided which gives confidence that they have a revised plan to deliver on time.

More importantly the language on pages 10 & 16 is more passionate about proving resources at depth and increasing the LoM visibility which is possibly the second largest aspect holding back the sp? The grade intersections at depth are looking good on the new cross-section schematics. I am especially encouraged that they are already down in advance to L9/L10, with more development work and stopes(!) and a production hoist - this sounds far more professional than the the PHB approach when entering L8 three years ago.
Noted that they are going to deepen the Agsao shaft (no costs or disruption info) to L8 which presumably reduces reliance on L8 shaft reliability; meanwhile, the L16 shaft depiction has disappeared......

I wish they would produce some proper committed forward-looking guidance on AISC. We know that over the next 6-12 months Capex costs will be falling, and that L8 ore haulage will rise (do I recall +35%?). However, drilling costs will remain high and Agsao deepening now has to be funded. Overall does that give a line-of-sight to $800?? Combined with 130-140,000 Oz?? Key questions for September's presentation, also othe strategies arising from the Consultant's study.

Cheers, tightfist

tightfist
29/7/2016
12:12
Of the additional 2.4M shares Ruffer purchased between the beginning of May and the issue of the Quarterly Report it was interesting to see that over 500K of the additional shares were bought on the 26/07 i.e. day before Qtrly report was issued.
RT

roguetreader
28/7/2016
12:05
On a postive note if we take the bottom of there estimated guidance 105k

And use the highest AISC of 1100
At an average pog of $1300

That's still healthy cash of -

105,000* $200 =$21M

Being more adventurous 115,000 produced ozs with the AISC at 1000 and gold averaging 1350 gives

115,000 *350 = $ 40,250,000

Quite a difference in potential profit there.

ilostthelot
28/7/2016
11:55
That is reassuring.
It looks like medusa chucked alot of money and effort to hit this revised target.

Reason I say that is the costs are up and they've now told us that next year's production will be back loaded.

That suggests we should expect 20-25 k ozs for the next 2 Quarter's followed by 2 *30k + quarterly

ilostthelot
28/7/2016
11:49
stevea171,

A very nice outline of current political events that could effect MML and the most likely outcome. Thanks.

Nice to see a Ruffer's still has confidence in MML.

MML just have to rebuild investor confidence now and with a nicely rising gold price we should see MML at a good bit higher than this current price.

Cheers,
Niels

nielsc
28/7/2016
11:38
Iltl and rrr. You're both welcome.

btw Did you see Ruffer has just announced it's bought another 1 million plus MML shares so it's not concerned about Co-O closing either ....

stevea171
28/7/2016
10:43
Thanks Steve, a very useful post. rrr
rrr
28/7/2016
10:22
Thanks Stevie. I don't have a great understanding of the country and it's politics . Your post has helped and from what I've read I agree that medusa should be alright given its track record helping the local community and jobs it provides.

If gold advances up over 1500 then the costs are not really a concern. I didn't expect that production cost guidance. I was hopeful for closer to $900 AISC.

Maybe once the large capex is complete they will actually get closer to 800-900 but I'm not so sure ,asit's one thing after another with these one off spending projects.
If the service lift is the last of the big outlays and the costs do come down to 800-900 AISC then medusa will be raking in the cash - that's why I am invested.

Bit of moan from me ,while I try to decide whether to sell and buy back next year when the share price shoukd start to take off. At least they put another 5M on the books and hit their target.

ilostthelot
28/7/2016
08:22
ILTL,

AISC obviously includes cash costs and cash costs are likely to rise due to the end of their tax holiday. So they are likely factoring additional taxes into their AISC guidance.
Chip

chipperfrd
28/7/2016
08:20
Posted on HC in reply to a poster there.

Rodrigo Duterte (born March 28, 1945), is a Filipino lawyer and politician of Visayan descent serving as the 16th President of the Philippines since 2016. He is the first Mindanaoan president of the country.
Duterte was among the longest-serving mayors in the Philippines and was Mayor of Davao City, a highly urbanized city on Mindanao island, for seven terms, totalling more than 22 years. He has also served as vice-mayor and as congressman for the city.

I consider the possible closure of Medusa's mine at Co-O that one poster here is suggesting is the result of insufficient understanding of the local Philippines situation.

The new president, Duterte, is from Mindanao island and is the long standing mayor of Davao City, the capital. He has been mayor for 22 years up until the time of becoming President last month. Medusa's operations are also on Mindanao just a few hours drive from Davao City. It is inconceivable that Duterte does not know of the Co-O mine and Medusa and more than likely he would have been there. Medusa's personel and logistical flows go through the airport and port in Davao City. Medusa benefits the local area and people where it's situated, providing employment for 5,000 local people directly and many more indirectly.

As confirmed yesterday, Medusa has ISO14001 certification since last month in compliance with a government directive.
Gina Lopez will not be able to act in an indiscriminate fashion closing all mines who are ISO14001 compliant and all those who aren't. She is part of a government that answers to the President and could well lose her job if she goes too far.

Gina Lopez has been involved in a clean up of a mining polluted river and area in the SE of Luzon, the main island, amongst other campaigns. She has her finger on the pulse of what islands and areas are polluted and what companies that are presently operating there are responsible. In many cases the mining has ceased, the company has moved on, and no one is responsible for cleaning up the mess. As she takes up office she has closed a few operations to send a message that she means business. Those closed may be able to return and all miners need to be careful that their operations don't impair the sustainability of the local area and area down stream that can be affected by streams and river pollution.

Imo Medusa is not on her radar and if it continues as a good neighbour and employer as it has been doing has nothing to fear about its current operations at Co-O.

stevea171
28/7/2016
07:59
The FY 18 is going to be the year for medusa. If the sovereign risk wasn't an issue I'd be inclined to buy the dips and build a bigger holding going into the second half of this 16--17 year. I don't see them closing medusa but you can't discount that they can and have closed mines. It is a real risk to all of your capital. The sooner they get the all clear ,from the government ,on that front the better.
ilostthelot
28/7/2016
07:54
I'm not sure what's going to push this higher other than the POG.
With the sovereign risk still hanging over and now this guidance with the higher costs and phrases like back loaded, my gut tells me this will trade side ways for another 6 months.
So I'm seriously considering cutting my small loss and buying else where.
Though something tells me Boyd might be planning the old under promise and over deliver trick because that guidance is really quite conservative. I'll repeat what I said above they told us costs would reduce around August yet the AISC for the next year guidance is higher. Why?

ilostthelot
27/7/2016
20:00
Ilostthelot,Gold pushing up should make the higher AISC less of an issue hopefully.Cheers,Niels
nielsc
27/7/2016
13:39
Hopefully the market likes it. They said that costs would drop around August yet have told us to expect AISC of 1000-1100. Are they expecting higher costs when sinking the shaft?
ilostthelot
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