Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[gersemi] 21/6/2016 11:23

Yes Chips but what does that mean for the price of gold? Is it bullish or bearish? Just an amateur seeking enlightenment!

Thanks for your most illuminating insights

[chipperfrd] 21/6/2016 10:45

To put the above delivery into perspective. Those 15,220 contracts represent 1,522,000 oz of gold. It is impossible to know at what price those contracts were bought but at today's gold price of c. US$1,280/oz they would have cost the holders some US$1.948B which must have been already fully funded in order for those contracts to be standing for delivery - so this is no small deal!

The obvious questions then are:
Does the Comes actually have c. 53.1 tonnes of gold available for delivery?
Will the holders of these outstanding contracts actually take physical delivery?
Who has the depth of pockets to fully fund so much gold on the paper Comex market?
Will this have any impact on the futures market?

Interesting!
Chip

[chipperfrd] 21/6/2016 10:21

Delivery on the Comex is very unusual this month!

As of 20th June there were 15,220 100oz contracts standing for delivery. That is c. 47.34 tonnes gold.

At month open it was just 3,508 contracts but has steadily increased throughout June. This, in itself, is highly unusual and the current level is way above the preceding months.

eg.
Jan 172 contracts (0.53 tonnes)
Feb 2,569 contracts (7.99 tonnes)
Mar 743 contracts (2.31 tonnes)
Apr 3,984 contracts (12.39 tonnes)
May 2,215 contracts (6.89 tonnes)

The Registered gold vaulted at Comex has seemingly had to be increased to match this delivery demand, as on the 26th May the level was only 23.1 tonnes but has now risen to 53.1 tonnes as of 16th June (which according to my records is a 5-year high for Registered gold).

It remains to be seen if the current delivery demand for 47.34 tonnes creeps any higher by next week, or even if this gold will actually be delivered (there is no reported data on such delivery!).

I have never seen anything quite like this before so I am certainly interested to see how it all works out.
Chip

[ilostthelot] 20/6/2016 10:15

Thanks Steve.

Hopefully the current management can meet targets & reduce costs and begin restoring confidence with the market again. That tribunal wouldn't have helped much. I guess we'll never know what happened with RG now.

[stevea171] 20/6/2016 09:10

It seems the case was dismissed as per poster Matrix on HC.

[stevea171] 19/6/2016 22:38

So far the outcome of the RG v's MML tribunal hearing for unfair dismissal is unknown. If the court awards damages to RG this should be disclosed in MML's accounts. Non-disclosure of legal action against the company that could result in compensation being paid should be disclosed. So yet again Teo is complicit in hiding significant information from shareholders.

Another post by Farm2gate on HC.

>>> "Hi Ox270. Googled the following - Andrew Teo is a Director, CFO and Co. Secretary of BGC (Australia ) P/L, and a director of BGC Contracting, and it appears, to many BGC subsidiary enterprises. BGC Contracting does provide mining services to mining companies, but none appear to be in underground mining. BGC is a multi $bil private Perth based building construction and contracting company, established by Len Buckeridge in abt. 1960.

Andrew Teo has been with BGC for last 32 years (30 years at time of Len Buckeridge's death in 2014). He is a CPA (Certified Practicing Accountant) and graduate of UWA. He is the Trustee to the Len Buckeridge Estate worth an estimated $2.5bil. The Trust Estate has recently been in the news (The Australian), with beneficiaries endeavouring to access the assets.

IMO, AT has not had a lot of spare time for MML, esp. when CEO and Chairperson. IMO, it is little wonder that AT did not have time to read the daily production reports for Jan. and Feb. before advising no change to production guidance for the March quarter, in the Dec. Quarterly.

I now have only a small share holding - hard to completely let go when you have been there since birth.
As always DYOR."

[chipperfrd] 18/6/2016 07:56

Niels,

You are using the Futures + Options numbers, I am quoting Net Short Positions from just the Futures only.

This link provides a simplified COT table every week:

Chip

[nielsc] 18/6/2016 01:13

Chipperfrd,

I looked at the cot report too this evening. Noted that it gave the gold price a little boost :-). They have used a lot of their paper powder and have barely made a dent in the gold price.



I make it 323k contracts net short (1005t)
If I take away the net position of 17k contracts (non reportable positions) that still gives me
306k contracts(952t).

Just wondering how I am getting different numbers to you?

Big numbers regardless and no doubt bigger with the action on Thursday and Friday!

Cheers,
Niels

[chipperfrd] 17/6/2016 22:35

I don't know if anyone here is interested in this stuff. But, just in case there is, it's worth noting that the Commercials (Banks) on Comex managed to set a new record for their shorts on gold (all paper of course) last Tuesday 14th June.

They reached 927 tonnes of short contracts by adding 169.2 tonnes over the prior week.

The previous record was 895 tonnes net short reached on 2/8/2011 when gold was at US$1,661/oz.

So with the gold price some US$360/oz lower they have had to to surpass their previous record high of naked short contracts to try and stifle the rise in paper gold on the futures exchange. Given the further price antics since Tuesday it will be interesting to see what their new level is in next week's COT report.

Needless to say, their record LOW in net short contracts was the equivalent of just 9 tonnes as reported in the COT for 1/12/15 when gold was at US$1,085/oz !!
Chip

[stevea171] 17/6/2016 18:14

Nielsc. Yes, GD appointed RG as consultant with a view to him taking over as CEO when he re-retired!

Teo was caught out lying/mis-stating in his AGM statement by Goldminer's posting from RG re the L8 shaft last October or November. As chairman, Teo condoned about 3 years of lying and failure to meet guidance by ex-MD PHB.

Until he is removed there will be no confidence in Medusa or its management. He has an uninterrupted record of failure. Much too late, the ASX is now onto him as well as evidenced by their demand for a statement on lack of timely market notification of a change in production guidance a couple of weeks ago. The company reply was pure BS imo. The ASX must be aware of this company's record under PHB and Teo of failing to make timely updates to production guidance to the market for years and no more so than July 2014 - the last quarterly report by PHB after 3 months of silence so recovery expected but then yet another big miss.

I will not willingly entertain this kind of person in control of one of my investments. So I sold out part of my UK position and put the funds raised to better use. My AU MML position is underwater and of considerable size. I have retained this for now awaiting break even then reassess who is running the show and where it's going.

[nielsc] 16/6/2016 07:43

stevea,

Nice find. Was disappointed to see RG go when it looked like it was GD that had given him the nod to take over from himself.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 16/6/2016 07:40

Was that FOMC meeting the black swan?

Gold through this $1308 level that has been mentioned a few times by those in the "know". Lets see if it can really kick up now.

Cheers,
Niels

[speedsgh] 15/6/2016 10:41

stevea171 - Great spot. I can't say I'm surprised. My confidence in the MML board has never been lower. It would be great to hear the truth from RG/GD re their sudden departures.



Hearings for Wednesday, 15 June 2016
9:15 Gregory v Medusa Mining Ltd
U2016/6763
s.394 - Application for unfair dismissal remedy
Commissioner Cribb
Hearing Room 12.32


Transcript & audio recordings
Commission hearings are audio recorded, and many hearings are transcribed.
Transcripts that are publicly available can be found in the Transcripts section of the Commission's website. Requests for transcript of proceedings that are not published on our website may be made to the Commission. A fee applies for this service and is to be paid by the person making the request.

May be worth following this page although I have no doubt that MML will apply for any transcript not to be made available to the public.

2016 transcripts -

[stevea171] 15/6/2016 09:35

From HC 15/6. Farm2gate.

As expected Teo & Co wanted nothing to do with GD and RG running the show for shareholders as opposed to their own self interest and permanent job for life taking the company no where.

"I believe we may have found one RG, our COO made an ex-COO at some time since the AGM. A legal eagle friend spotted Medusa Mining in the Fair Work Commission (Perth) Hearings List for today. Gregory vs. MML re. s.394 - "Application for unfair dismissal remedy". Obviously (and I am assuming this is RG the MML Mining Engineer, who with GD ex CEO, turned the Co. around) the parting of ways was not amicable. Question that arises from this is, assuming this is RG, why was he dismissed, given the mine production and yield results achieved in a relatively short period? I will endeavour to find out and report the outcome of the Hearing. As always DYOR"

[ilostthelot] 14/6/2016 21:27

I was surprised at the price action last night with the intraday reversal while gold was strong.

[chipperfrd] 13/6/2016 13:38

Not too long now until the end of the financial year for MML. It will be good to get the overall financial results in order to check just how well things have gone since FY15.

There was certainly a good uplift over the first half. Net assets improved by US$31.6m to US$223.6m and working capital by US$10.5m to US$42.9m. And that was over a 6 month period when gold averaged US$1,109/oz.

So far in 2016 gold has averaged US$1,218/oz and will likely be c. US$1,225/oz for MML's second half, so their full year results are likely to reflect the improved revenue from gold and better operating cash generation. Whether this will show in a higher level of cash or in lower liabilities remains to be seen, but either way it ought to further improve the net assets on their balance sheet.
Chip

[rrr] 10/6/2016 10:44

O/T but may be of some general interest - the Investment Manager's Review 'Overview' section

[nielsc] 10/6/2016 07:44

chipperfrd,

Regarding JPMadoff, I can quite imagine it being depressing. I think I depress my wife quite enough with some of the financial shenanigans I recount to her (something I have stopped doing).

Was thinking about the Russian PM's statement. "There is no money. But be strong. All the best. Have a good day, and good health,". The west may be having a laugh about it, but at least the Russian people know where they stand with a brutally honest statement like that, whereas many in the west will find that statement to be true in an entirely different way.

Over at the COMEX there seems to be an issue with investors still standing for delivery. Will it be different this time?


Cheers,
Niels

[chipperfrd] 08/6/2016 11:46

Niels,

I value them at c. A$4 based on their most recent financials and reserves/resources. Further upside is predicated on an improved gold price and, obviously, improving financials as the mine improvements come to fruition. Perhaps a discount should be applied for a degree of uncertainty over the political situation now that the election is over - but difficult/impossible to quantify that!

So well undervalued in my opinion and therefore happy to wait it out.
Chip

[nielsc] 08/6/2016 09:18

With an AISC of US$1,033 per ounce (Dec 2015 quarter AISC US$950 per ounce) I would say that MML is not really a low cost producer. This means that is more highly leveraged to the gold price. So if gold has a good run we should see MML rise at a greater rate.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 08/6/2016 09:15

MML share price has doubled since the lows at the start of the year.
Other gold miners have gone up by 3 or 4 times since the start of the year. I feel MML is being held back due to confidence in the company. With the recent presentations I think MML are aware of this and they now need to put in a couple of quarters were they deliver on their stated aims.

Also the CAPEX requirements going forward may also be a worry.
I am hoping to see gold around the $1400-$1500 by the end of the calendar year and MML price in the A$2-3 range.


Cheers,
Niels

[cncventure] 07/6/2016 07:29

Well the 10% pop didn't have much to do with MML as much as it did the gold price...

That said it was nice to see MML up today even though the XGD was down.

Other than that I'm not sure there is much to discuss about MML at the moment (which is nice for a change), unless people want to talk about what potential crazy policy's Rody might introduce in the Philippines (but I'm not sure speculating on the intentions of politicians is practical).

I'm waiting for the B1 resource update and the Q4 results (or the gold price to go above $1308) before making any further investments (or divestments).

[alquid1] 06/6/2016 22:27

Up 10% and not a word on here! Suppose if it was down 10% it would be different :)

Al