Mediterranean Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[falklands] 12/7/2014 06:15

Ohisay you seem to be posting your thoughts on motley fool as well all the time.. Now I am a bit of an old cynic you claim buy mog for cheap shares into RKH err it's about same level.

So my conclusion considering you bought at 6.7p mog your trying to ramp buy comments in which is risky and a bad show

[undervalued companies] 09/7/2014 15:20

Let's see if it gets voted through.

[ohisay] 09/7/2014 12:45

Can't understand folks selling this unless they need the cash imminently.

[ohisay] 08/7/2014 15:54

Currently 78p vs 93.5p!

[chrisoil twitter] 07/7/2014 13:35

Agree Adam HUR good not sure why so many interested in mog.

[adam] 04/7/2014 11:29

FWIW Bought a few HUR. Looks nice, but must be a placing soon?

wildcat option/feature here obviously gone. Now just a cheap entry to RKH. I make it 83p equivalent if you buy at 6.3p versus 95p market price - quite a discount

[hiddendepths] 03/7/2014 20:56

8% global success on wildcats. Better to stick to HUR!

[adam] 03/7/2014 11:06

RKH very perky as it happens. They have $722m net carry from Premier on Sea Lion, but there has been some speculation that PMO bitten off more than they can chew. Not got a strong opinion but $2/bbl on contingent reserves seems an OK punt with, they claim, exposure to 800mb net OIP exploration potential. They claim fully funded to first oil ($1.52b net less carry $0.72b less PMO standby facility $0.8b)

[ohisay] 03/7/2014 08:56

Yes - was good risk reward here and still worth 6.4p .
I'd say mind you that 1 in 15 seems to be the nearer the truth these days .

[adam] 03/7/2014 08:13

You can't determine the pre-drill value of a wild-cat well post-facto.

Now, regrettably, the result was the 90% scenario, but the risked value was always going to be 10% (or whatever) of 50% over approx three months - which is an excellent annualised return, statistically speaking. I would invest in these all day every day and nothing else if they were available because 1 in 10 will come good.

Currently MOG worth 6.4p read across from RKH @ 89p (4.875 + 0.0172 * 89)
Market price reflects time value (August 11th) and liquidity.

[mug3] 03/7/2014 07:53

I think this is funnier than a box of fats. Higgs is a disgrace. He must be sacked immediately. No payout no nothing.

[ianpuddifoot] 03/7/2014 07:51

There to busy to worry about that now

[ride daice] 30/6/2014 09:49

When does the deal close ?

[adam] 27/6/2014 11:25

Can buy now at 6.375, which seems parri passu with current RKH share price.
I have seen figures of 10%, 12% and 20% for CoS on Hagar Qim


The 20% CoS figure came from Tony Hayward (Genel) formerly BP CEO and the operator

According to Tony Hayward of Genel Energy, the new well, which is Genel's first since the company was acquired by Hayward and other investors, including Nathaniel Rothschild, for over 2 billion U.S. dollars in 2011, is within an area with the potential for field sizes of at least 250 million oil barrels, he told local press here earlier. Hayward added that he sees a one in five chance of success in Malta.

[adam] 19/6/2014 22:08

Syquant Capital

Notable if you multiply the number of long MOG by 0.0172 you arrive at the number of RKH they are short (give or take)

7,300,000 1.69% (MOG long)

125,560 0.04& (RKH short)

This is a simple cash arbitrage and they have removed the share element by selling forward the RKH shares. This might partly explain the weakness in RKH share price, as well as MOG being a "free option" on RKH as regards the contingent element of the offer.

Could make some sense to go long RKH as the ratio is quite low to get exposure through MOG (i.e. 1m MOG would get you just 17k RKH). Would expect a bounce in RKH once short-selling and switchers finished

[glyn10] 19/6/2014 11:28

probably just edited and old RNS and did not proof read it !

[unconscious] 19/6/2014 07:37

I have read thousands of RNS over the years and "Pleased" to announce negative news is not one you see very often lol!

[randomwalker] 19/6/2014 07:26

Why are they "pleased" announce a fall in production?

[garymegson] 28/5/2014 12:44

Thanks Glyn10

[glyn10] 27/5/2014 16:14

I think the 8.3 form is a disclosure form for majority shareholders. The norm under the current circumstances

[garymegson] 27/5/2014 14:12

What are these 8.3 forms? Are RKH taking stock in this company?

[ohisay] 27/5/2014 13:13

If he believes that why not come up with a counter bid for MOG in excess of 6.5p which already factors that in (Malta 20% COS for 27mboe net).?
Its odd that Bill Higgs at OilBarrel in March (2 months after they started talking to RKH)was saying that a Malta find would be worth 50p per share to MOG.


(20 mins in)

That works out at 13$ per barrel yet they are prepared to sell to RKH for 1$/barrel.
The 13$ is plainly daft but why not 6$ to 7$ - say 4£ per barrel.
Risking that at 20% gets you £22m or 5p per MOG share.
Chucking in the cash and existing Italian assets and 9p/10p per share isn't out of the way for a Genel bid..

One of the reasons I bought more last week at 6.7p.