Mediasurface Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 02/10/2007 13:46

sruk77
At the moment I just feel like changing one letter ;-)

However, it may be that the title will be more apt if they are still at this price if the sales all start coming in again in first half of 08.

[sruk77] 02/10/2007 12:21

I think someon needs to change the title of thread (unless someone believes they remain a 'stonking buy' :^)

[arthurly] 02/10/2007 12:19

My view is that its probably less risky than investing in UK, European or US stocks at the moment PP. Don't see the Chinese authorities going too heavy handed till after the Olympics anyway.

[papalpower] 02/10/2007 12:04

Bit risky perhaps ? With Chinese inflation becoming a real problem, and with continued action by the government required to halt it, I would see Chinese stocks as risky now.

If in the UK or US inflation is rising, and getting out of control, you'll see the UK and US stocks tumble down as people prepare for a severe halt to growth. Should be no different for Chinese stocks imv........and maybe why you are now seeing weakness creep into the Chinese stocks on the London market ??

Sorry a bit O/T there.


Arthurly - 2 Oct'07 - 10:06 - 2459 of 2465
Commiserations yump. Know how it feels. Lost a huge bundle on FMJ a couple of years ago and that was out of the blue, too. I think the Chinese companies have the best chance of multibagging so most of my funds are in the two software companies SFT and GNG, as well as TAIH and my largest holding RCG. But you never know with this AIM lark...

[wjccghcc] 02/10/2007 11:21

tough one garth. One of my smaller holdings that I was holding from the 13p days but still extremely painful. Sold out first thing at 8.5p mainly because they seem to have misdjudged the demand for Pepperio and that has an impact on recurring revenues going forward. Morello was always going to be volatile with 75% revenues linked to new business (50% license, 25% services) so that risk was factored in but they seemed so bullish about Pepperio in H1 and now they're cutting funding right back.

Time and again we see the volatility of small software companies with large lumpy contracts. It's debatable whether this kind of business should be listed given the market's short-term outlook. Imagine the effect a 50% fall in the share price has on the morale of the staff. I'd expect MSR to be taken private again at some point in the next 6 months, credit crunch permitting.

[bloodhound] 02/10/2007 11:06

"Despite these disappointing results, the Board believes that the underlying
business remains strong."

OK then, issue a statement to the effect the company sees no reason for a fall of this scale and Flynn, Deacon and Jackson buy 500k each as a show of support, that should do it!

[yump] 02/10/2007 11:02

drewz
You're right there. I know of a few investors posting who have apparently been 'full up to the brim' with 5 stocks, out of which 3 have tanked, and yet they still seem to be investing. Either got a bottomless pit of money (in which case you wonder how they got it and kept it) or just fibs !

[yump] 02/10/2007 11:00

Arthurly
Thanks for that ditto with FMJ not nice. IBG also appearing OK, then not.
Had some GNG and actually got out at 95p because thought it had got way ahead. Contemplating going back in. If its become a lottery then the physical lack of being able to see Chinese businesses probably doesn't matter a hoot !

[drewz] 02/10/2007 10:24

Commiserations to holders - that was completely unforseen and unexpected. The business appeared to be growing soundly.

Unfortunately, as the old stock market saying goes, profit warnings invariably come in 3s, not as a one off with everything quickly hunky dory again, so buyers need to approach with caution.

Just shows what a lottery stock market investing is whether it is AIM small caps or large banks.

So important to spread your investments and not hold too great a percentage in any one stock (as so many oddly claim to do on advfn) to mitigate from this kind of portfolio shock.

[bloodhound] 02/10/2007 10:07

54% - Still one hell of a drop that......!

[arthurly] 02/10/2007 10:06

Commiserations yump. Know how it feels. Lost a huge bundle on FMJ a couple of years ago and that was out of the blue, too. I think the Chinese companies have the best chance of multibagging so most of my funds are in the two software companies SFT and GNG, as well as TAIH and my largest holding RCG. But you never know with this AIM lark...

[yump] 02/10/2007 09:53

garth
The brokers were forecasting increased profits by around 20%+ for this year and the Immediacy acquisition looked like a good buy on the basis of their published sales/profits and the price paid/share issue by MSR.

I haven't got my head around this yet really.

Got a feeling the acquisition was more important for the company than Pepperio as the Immediacy was in competition with Morello which was their 'core' business.

Also I'm having doubts about investment strategy anyway, so not the best person to comment at the moment !

I'm wondering whether ltbh is actually a dead duck as an investment strategy. With the number of 'disappointments' in what were hoped for growth stocks, what are the realistic chances of picking and sticking with a company that really does grow enough to transform a portfolio. We can all quote one, but I'm running over my last 3-4 years to try to analyse it all.

Or is it good enough to sell out and take 30-40% profits every time they appear, if you get them in a short time-frame ? On the basis that its only a tiny minority of companies that grow to a large portfolio-changing size. There seem to be so many competitive pressures that on the growth path - so many companies do placings, or have serious hiccups in profits. Then you've got to hope they don't get taken over, just as you were hoping for a multibagger...

[yump] 02/10/2007 09:43

Its the suddenness of the announcement and lack of any 'guidance' earlier that bothers me. The business is something else.

I don't think you can conclude that Pepperio isn't a sustainable business on the basis of a year or so promotion and disappointing sales though.

More likely that:
(a) the SME area is very fragmented and that is an opportunity, but it might be a more difficult opportunity and gradual one than they thought.
(b) they are too late into the market, because many SME's are already reasonably set up with their websites and although they could be significantly better and easier to use, those businesses just don't want the hassle of a redesign.
(c) websites are still being built of course, so perhaps a longer reputation is needed among SME's (they all know Actinic for instance) or perhaps the pricing isn't right or.......?

Without some more explanation its difficult to know.

fwiw they appear to have acted quickly to cut back on Pepperio investment, to concentrate on what already works, although not quite clear how much of that was originally planned scaling down.

They've still got the main business + the Immediacy business which is performing well as they say.

Its the triple hit thats done the damage: initial (heavy?) investment in Pepperio, Low sales in Pepperio, and Morello contracts not booked in this year.

As an investor hoping for growing profits its very disappointing. As a business, you could say its just business.

[garth] 02/10/2007 09:30

Yump, WJ,

Be interested in your view of these now. I had a brief look at the weekend.

2006 profit looks to be sandwiched between losses....

Thanks,

G.

[bloodhound] 02/10/2007 08:52

I wonder how quick Flynn will be to jump in and fill his boots this time around, always a true test of faith using ones own money don't you think?

[pugg1ey] 02/10/2007 08:44

like the excuse of people getting confused for poor sales. makes a change from blaming the weather I guess.

[mercier et camier] 02/10/2007 08:36

But I do agree the drop is overdone. MSR is a quality company and this is an opportunity for the directors to put their money where their mouths are.

[bloodhound] 02/10/2007 08:36

58% drop jezzz, that's worse than Northern Rock!

[wjccghcc] 02/10/2007 08:34

Not really. It kind of says Pepperio isn't a sustainable business and that was the major part of their strategy to reduce their dependence on the lumpy contracts which led to today's warning.

[stemis] 02/10/2007 08:33

Yes, the market is extremely unforgiving at the moment. Now valued at £7.0M, which is not much more than it paid for Immediacy (about £5.6M).

Having said that, revenue for the year of £11.3M and an EBITDA loss of £1.3M equates to H2 revenue of £5.2M and an EBITDA loss of about £1.8M. Looks like a business out of financial control. Can't see how they only realised this 2 days after the year end!

[yump] 02/10/2007 08:30

Yes, bit of a bizarre drop even given the announcement. Confidence dented though really.

[donaferentes] 02/10/2007 08:28

I do expect a bounce from this overreaction and am sitting tight till we're off the floor again, but warnings like this have a habit of lasting longer, or worse being repeated, than the use of English would suggest.

[simonparker5] 02/10/2007 08:25

Total over reaction. Read the statement orders have been delayed not cancelled. The recent acquisition is performing well.

[mercier et camier] 02/10/2007 08:23

You trip up today and the markets are merciless. The fact that the company raises revenue from the financial services sector which is in dire straits does not help.