Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[blackhorse23] 15/4/2024 11:00

Money moving to GNC

[dimknaf] 11/4/2024 15:52

The stock has exploded but it seems to be a successful turnaround.
I am not sure I would buy here. The stock is going to be presented next week at the London Value Investing Club. I will get any new insights from there, and may update my thesis.

[hpcg] 10/4/2024 13:10

My scheme closed years ago. I am always surprised to see active schemes still, though it is a great recruitment tool. I only now a pie charts worth of were my scheme was allocated, and I know it had some in REITs which were also hit, but also a chunk in FTSE all-world. But when it comes down to it the 2058 index linked gilt went from over £200 to current £70 so doing better than that improves the scheme. Yes, mine went from deficit to surplus and the company which had been making contributions no longer has to, and my understanding is the scheme has moved considerably into gilts.

[nobull] 10/4/2024 12:18

hpcg, thanks. Yes, I think that was my point (badly made): if the lower pension liabilities have been matched with bond assets, then we will be no better off as the bonds will have fallen in value too.

Some final salary pension fund schemes that have bought shares instead, to deliberately not match their liabilities, have greatly reduced their pension fund deficits (like yours turning a deficit into a surplus?) without having to contribute more. Of course, it would be wonderful if the pension fund had invested recently in MCB shares but that is probably too reckless a course of action to expect them to have done.

I read somewhere that a lot of funds did start to match their liabilities with bonds after it became mandatory to put pension fund deficits on the balance sheet, and this has been given as a contributory reason, among many, for the UK stock market being lowly rated compared with some others.

[hpcg] 10/4/2024 11:14

nobull - my final salary scheme lost money last year but moved into surplus. A pension scheme health is related to liability matching, not absolute valuation.

Added some today. The move to 120 is a sign post forward, not a FOMO spike.

[darrin1471] 09/4/2024 17:15

Trading update was Tuesday 25th April last year.

[nobull] 09/4/2024 16:33

"Two large holders have been reducing their stakes as announced today."

Yes, I expect that is to keep the share price from galloping away. The only news due I can think of is that on the size of the pension fund deficit. While the liabilities discount to a smaller amount what with bond yields being what they are, we are no better off if the fund has matched those liabilities with bonds, for they will have fallen in value too.

[nobull] 09/4/2024 16:25

Darrin and Oldtimer, thanks for that info, and Paraguay for Phil Oakley's views - he knows the company very well - I remember reading a very long piece by him that must have been in Investors Chronicle when I first researched this company.

Off topic.

I cannot do interspousal transfers - too many unknowns! I will have to look into gifts into trust to roll over the CGT, making the gift long before its value reaches anywhere near the nil band threshold, and maybe hope I live 7 years after the gift.

The object is to pass it on to someone who will make more with it rather than spend it on luxury cruises, etc.

I was travelling on Friday, so missed the opportunity to bed and ISA, and anyway I did not think of that. Well done, Darrin.

P.S. one of the best planning techniques, if it is relevant, is to be able to disinherit oneself by doing a deed of variation to change a will after someone has died. There is a two year time limit for the beneficiary of the will to do it: it avoids two lots of IHT being paid in quick succession on the same wealth. The effect is as if the deceased had made the variation to the will themselves, and it takes effect retrospectively from the deceased's date of death.

[darrin1471] 08/4/2024 16:53

I sold 20k at 119p on Friday to crystallise CGT and to have funds to move into my ISA for the new financial year.
I bought back 10k near the close today for 108.075p. I will buy back the other 10K tomorrow if the share price spikes down again.

The MCB share price was already down 8p today before the holding RNS from DUMAC and Teleios. It feels more like a "managed" decine after last weeks spike.

[chrisdonohue] 08/4/2024 15:59

Two large holders have been reducing their stakes as announced today. Although the share price has taken a bit hit from recent highs. the forecast eps is still 19p and a PE of 12 still gives a forecast share price of 228p. There is no reason to panic.

[darrin1471] 05/4/2024 12:20

Thanks oldtimer169 but I'm divorced. Once bitten, twice shy.

Just listened to Phil Oakley on twin peaks. I'm not convinced the supermarkets are becoming "nicer".
IMO MCB lost out when input prices rocketed and will benefit as they fall. The trend is towards own label. Competitors will be financially weak after a tough few years and will be looking to improve margins rather than taking market share. Selling additional volumes from the same assets is very profitable.

[oldtimer169] 05/4/2024 11:55

Transfers between spouses are deemed to be at no profit.Worth noting

[darrin1471] 05/4/2024 11:45

nobull. I normally keep investments inside my ISA and SIPP. I did invest extra at the end of 2022 so have ended up with half my MCB profits liable for CGT when I sell.
I have not paid CGT historically as I have been able to use my allowances.
MCB is not going to be a steady ever upward ride where I am able to use my allowances annually. One year MCB is going to fall again and cost me more than the 10% or 20% I will have to pay in CGT.
I am going to have to pay for some tax advice to ensure I pay the minimum tax and make the most of my allowances.

[paraguay] 05/4/2024 10:27

Tipped on Twin Petes podpact by Phil Oakley last night. He's a bit late to the party since i've been here since 30p!

[nobull] 05/4/2024 10:01

"I think £2 is a reasonable target for this calendar year."

Crikey, I'll have to leave the UK for 5 years - can't afford to have a CGT bill in the 7 years prior to death. It is a terrible waste of the death price uplift.

Anyway, if I do have to leave, I'll be able to save, say, 80% in Beirut, Bangkok or Bombay on my dementia care costs. I think I am probably locked into McBride just for tax reasons.

[darrin1471] 05/4/2024 10:01

edit:
DUMAC was 17.65% in 21/10/2020
Now dropped just below 17%

[darrin1471] 04/4/2024 17:03

I think £2 is a reasonable target for this calendar year. MCB was my 2nd largest holding last summer so MCB is now a very overweight position for me. I will have to sell into the rise.

[northwards] 04/4/2024 14:23

Doing well here, now my 2nd biggest sipp holding.

[hpcg] 04/4/2024 11:38

FT story today that large US Private Equity owners such as endowments are selling at a discount in the secondary market as a lack of IPO exits means traditional distributions are not available. Pension funds actually need cash and so their hands are somewhat forced. It suggests to me that publicly listed PE discounts are representative.

[oldtimer169] 04/4/2024 11:14

darrin But still less than half the 7 year high.Still plenty of gas in the tank IMO.

[darrin1471] 04/4/2024 10:53

105p a 5 year high.

[hpcg] 03/4/2024 10:30

Recent director buying was helpful.

[darrin1471] 02/4/2024 16:46

MCB broke through 100p this afternoon, then there was a large trade of 1,984,104 at 99.9p
MCB should be an interesting watch tomorrow.

I thought things may be quiet leading up to the end of the financial year with holders crystallising profits and the price drifting a bit. Wrong.