We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mcbride Plc | MCB | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 109.50 | 11:34:42 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113.00 | 109.50 | 113.00 | 109.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| HOUSEHOLD GOODS & HOME CONSTRUCTION |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 05/4/2024 11:45 by darrin1471 nobull. I normally keep investments inside my ISA and SIPP. I did invest extra at the end of 2022 so have ended up with half my MCB profits liable for CGT when I sell.I have not paid CGT historically as I have been able to use my allowances. MCB is not going to be a steady ever upward ride where I am able to use my allowances annually. One year MCB is going to fall again and cost me more than the 10% or 20% I will have to pay in CGT. I am going to have to pay for some tax advice to ensure I pay the minimum tax and make the most of my allowances. |
Posted at 18/3/2024 17:35 by darrin1471 With falling input costs, I think MCB will struggle to get any revenue growth even if volumes increase. 2% is disappointing but it is just a number out of the air. I doubt MCB predicted the volume growth in 2023 and we know they did not foresee the inflation.In general, there is a move from brands to private label across Europe. Evidence shows that once you try them you don't go back. I would like to see MCB build their own brands which Accrol are showing have better margins and some brand loyalty. Investment in production efficiency and innovation is essential for the long term but MCB has always been a recovery investment for me and not a long term thing. I am still hoping for more upside over the next 6 months and that MCB have been hiding some of their profits in H1, in order to protect them from the supermarkets. MCB talked about improving capacity but I would of liked to of heard about spare capacity. Utilising spare capacity is very profitable. |
Posted at 18/3/2024 15:45 by darrin1471 The targets in the capital markets day are important. I have seen no adjustment in what is forecasts for FY 25 & 26 yet.FD said the aim was to "rebase the business at a higher underlying level of profitability" and " we need McBride to be regularly delivering EBITA of £55m to £65m vs historic EBITA of £25m to £35m. Note this is EBITA and not EBITDA In the previous capital markets day in 2021 EBITA and "adjusted operating profit" were the same figures MCB also say they are targeting revenue growth of 2% and EBITDA >10% of sales. With sales close to £1b then EBITDA would be £100m. MCB can not pay a dividend under the current finance agreement but the expected new agreement in 11/24 along with the leverage (Debt/EBITDA) below 2.0 should allow a potential restart of an annual dividend at the end of the financial year 2025. |
Posted at 10/3/2024 08:09 by mirabeau Holding #MCB covered in The Times today:Share Tip: "Invest in McBride, you could clean up" Their references to Peel Hunts 108p price target, anticipated profit and price-to-earnings are off though as they have used forecasts pre the 27th update. Peel Hunt upgraded PBT to £46m from £40m, EPS to 19p from 16.5p, PT to 120p from 108p. This was their last comments on value: "Recommendation. McBride has an improving operational performance, which is translating into strong FCF. We upgrade our target price from 108p to 120p to reflect the higher profit outlook. This is based on 6x FY25E PE and 5x EV/EBITDA. The current rating of c.4x PE and 3x EV/EBITDA is still ridiculously low in our view" |
Posted at 27/2/2024 20:21 by darrin1471 One of 2023’s best share price performers, private-label cleaning products maker McBride (MCB), has upgraded earnings guidance again as the cost-of-living squeeze continues to stoke demand for its affordable products, news that sent the stock up 16% to 85.2p in early dealings on Tuesday.Having reported a much-improved first-half performance with all divisions profitable, the budget laundry-detergent-to PRIVATE LABEL SHIFT PERSISTS A trusted supplier to Europe’s leading grocery retailers, McBride’s strong showing in the half to 31 December 2023 was underpinned by the ongoing shift away from expensive brands and towards cheaper private-label alternatives as consumers seek to save money and retailers look to reinforce their value propositions. McBride’s constant currency revenue rose 9.9% to £468 million in the half, reflecting price increases as well as healthy 10.1% private label volume growth, with the Manchester-headquart In its core strategic focus areas of Germany and laundry, McBride achieved pleasing volume growth of 10.5% and 9.8% respectively. FIRMLY BACK IN THE BLACK McBride also pleased investors with a swing from losses of £7.9 million to adjusted pre-tax profits of £22.4 million thanks to positive margin progress, as well as a £20.8 million decrease in net debt from £166.5 million at the prior year end to £145.7 million. While sales growth slowed in the final two months of the half, the outlook for the rest of the second half and the balance of the calendar year is positive and contract wins will begin to boost revenues from the first half of full year 2025. WHAT DID THE COMPANY SAY? Chief executive Chris Smith commented: ‘McBride has continued with its positive momentum in the first half of this financial year. It is pleasing to see all five divisions continuing to grow on a constant currency basis, supporting our customers with high-quality products to meet the consumer shift to private label.’ Smith added: ‘As we progress our transformation programme, with specific initiatives to enhance McBride’s capabilities and tools for the future, we remain focused on performance delivery today. This focus, together with our continued drive to reduce debt levels, will ensure McBride is well positioned to achieve further progress in the near and medium term and we look to the future with confidence.’ WHY BROKERS ARE BULLISH Investec, which has a ‘buy’ rating and a 112p price target for the stock, said the company ‘continues to make reassuring progress and expects the favourable trends for private label products in its categories to continue throughout calendar 2024. It now expects full year 2024 operating profit to be 10% to 15% above its previous expectations. We upgrade by 17% for full year 2024 and by 8% for subsequent years.’ Peel Hunt (PEEL:AIM) upgraded its full year 2024 pre-tax profit forecast from £40 million to £46 million and highlighted McBride’s ‘improving operational performance, which is translating into strong free cash flow. We upgrade our target price from 108p to 120p to reflect the higher profit outlook.’ |
Posted at 16/1/2024 17:08 by darrin1471 WJCCGHCC You have been on ADVFN long enough to not be surprised that you get a negative response if your first post on a thread is a negative comment on a big down day.Your initial post is a fair observation but not relevant to today's movement. Your post 1296 is very much worth adding to the thread. On first reading the TU, I also spotted the lower volumes vs the last update in November. The numbers I have for volumes are: H1 23 1.6% H2 23 9.6% Q3 6.5% and Q4 12.7% Q1 24 8% October 8.8% Nov/Dec 2.8% Q2 4.8% It has previously been reported that MCB uses 100's of different chemicals in their products. Looking at the share performance of chemical companies I would surmise that the cost of chemicals have been falling after the prices rocketed in 2022 along with oil and energy. MCB were a looser when input prices rose, they should benefit as input prices fall. I would therefore argue that MCB may boost margins over the short term. Competitors have also struggled in recent years resulting in reduced investment and closing capacity. NLW is UK specific and a lot of MCB's employees are outside of the UK. |
Posted at 11/12/2023 09:31 by darrin1471 If there are any new holders reading this thread today then take the time to read back over the posts on this thread.After almost going bust due to price inflation in 2022 MCB has bounced back big time. Before today MCB are up 60% in a month 300% in a year and nearly 400% from the lows. But still 60% down from December 2017 highs. The highest MCB EBITDA from the last 10 years is £51m. Current forecasts for the current year are EBITDA of £72m. 40% above the previous highest EBITDA and then the CEO says on "X" "not factored into forecasts". MCB have 5% fewer shares than in 2017 due to an ill-timed share buyback. So a bullish upside target excluding any future upgrades could be £2 (Dec 2017) + 5% buyback (£2.10) + 40% from higher EBITDA (£2.94). Plus any upgrades. I could make an even more bullish case for a push beyond £3. I took a decent sized gamble in MCB sub 17p in 07/22, doubled quantity in 08/22. Added April July, September, October and finally at 51p in November. Due to the rise I now have an uncomfortably large percentage of my portfolio in MCB but I continue to hold in full as I think these can still easily double quite quickly from here. |
Posted at 29/11/2023 15:40 by darrin1471 nobull, I'm not selling any either. IMO the forward p/e is low due to the rapid improvement. When those numbers are in the bag I am hoping for a good outlook along with wider recognition, leading to MCB being tipped.Higher sales volumes leads to higher utilisation of capacity, higher margins and higher profits. When capacity is being reached you can either invest in new capacity or raise prices to limit demand. I am not aware of any information on MCB capacity beyond they were targeting improved capacity and efficiency in "Programme Compass". Capacity and strength of competitors is also very important. To hide exceptional profits it may be wise to invest in productivity rather than capacity. I am unsure if recent tax changes in the budget may help this. The Amended Financing Agreement did say "Pricing and fees: No increase in margin applicable to borrowings when debt cover 2.5x or lower". In the AGM TU MCB were forecasting 2x by year end of 30 June 2024, so MCB should be 2.5x by April 24. I am not that interested in MCB dividends. Any dividend yield will hopefully be insignificant when compared to the higher share price. You can currently sell MCB for 64p on L2 backed up by strong buy orders. Still no sign of the seller who has been selling into recent highs. The seller was last seen at 51.1p |
Posted at 25/11/2023 11:30 by darrin1471 miti 1000, I don't have any magic skill or system for forecasting. I was right on the direction of travel but if you look back only a few months you will see I was hoping for numbers which were significantly below what is being forecast today.The inflation bubble we have just seen was unprecedented since the oil crisis of 1974. I invested in MCB on the basis that MCB like everybody else were not expecting the inflation spike and MCB were tied into contacts that were loss making. All competitors were likely to be in the same position. The theory was that new contracts would take into account the new input costs and steady the ship. Then as input costs fell MCB and their weakened competitors would try and hold onto margins as best they could. This is likely to happen in every industry whatever the sector where input prices rose and now are stable or falling. The advantage in this sector is that the market MCB serve is growing. Looking back at MCB history appeared to suggest that the sector pre inflation had been going through a very competitive period of over capacity in some areas such as powders as fashions moved to liquids and pods. New liquids and pods needed new production facilities which left over capacity in powders for example. Over capacity and low margins probably led to low profits and reduced investment. I am hoping that the high inflation period killed off some competitors and reduced industry investment and capacity. Supermarkets are well known for driving the hardest of bargains so MCB are not going to be shouting from the rooftops about future record profits. We are hearing from MCB of "stable raw material and packaging material costs", "potential increased volatility" in input prices, "upward pressures in non-material costs". When record profits come through MCB will be talking about higher volumes from existing production facilities and the success of "Programme Compass". When supermarkets see record profits from their suppliers they will increase the pressure on prices. Supermarkets success will depend upon the strength and capacity of competitors. MCB may be able to maintain or even improve margins further by lower input prices. MCB may be able to hide exceptional profits in the accounts and drip feed them through over the coming quarters. Privately I thought MCB management failed when they did not see the risk of inflation, when they increased debt for share buybacks and gave away 11% of the capital for a loan. They then rewarded themselves with share options at the lows. Now they have terminated the upside sharing mechanism the management look very astute and deserve their rewards for their navigation though a very difficult period. Astute management would target a high share price when those options could be exercised. I think we are entering a period of exceptional profits. I don't know how exceptional they will be. When I bought a chunk of MCB at under 17p there was a lot of risk. I have added as the risks reduced and I understood the company better. I have not sold any yet and continued to add throughout the year including a few before last weeks AGM trading update. I currently have 5x the number of shares I originally bought and MCB is my largest holding. An upside of 100% from here within a year looks very doable, maybe quicker. EBITDA for the current year is forecast to be 40% higher than any time in the last 10 years and there are 5% fewer shares than when MCB's share price peaked above 230p in 2017. |
Posted at 15/7/2023 10:54 by darrin1471 Comparing H1 to limited FY information.H1 revenue 426.3 (+30.3% at constant currency) FY23 +"28.4% on a constant currency" FY22 678.3 Est FY23 revenue 870.9 H2 est revenue 444.6 H1 volumes up 1.2% (2.6% in private label) FY volumes "up 5.4% for the full year, following 12.7% growth in the fourth quarter" By my calculation Q3 volume growth is about 7% H1 1.2% Q3 7% Q4 12.7% Accelerating volume growth. H1 revenue minus volume growth would be 421.3 H2 revenue minus volume growth would be 404.4 From that I would say average selling prices fell by 4% in H2 due to falling input costs. Net debt closed at GBP166.5m which is only a slight improvement on last year but a significant improvement on the guidance of 181 to 186 provided less than 3 months ago. Lower input costs and better operational profits. Higher interest payments on the higher debt will be a profits drag for several years. H1 adjusted operating loss -1.3 FY adjusted operating profit "materially ahead of current market expectations" (9.7) and "at the top end of the range indicated" (up to 13). I will use 12 as my forecast So H2 adjusted operating profit was 13.3 H1/24 adjusted operating profit should be higher than 13.3 if volumes continue to rise and falling input prices boost margins. H2 adjusted operating profit annualised would be 26.6 In 2022 Adjusted operating loss was -24.5 EBITDA -8m eps -0.157 cf -44m debt 169m In 2021 Adjusted operating profit was 24.1 EBITDA 39m eps -0.058 cf - 9m debt 143m In 2020 Adjusted operating profit was 28.3 EBITDA 38m eps 0.07 cf 33m debt 146m In 2019 Adjusted operating profit was 28.1 EBITDA 46m eps 0.014 cf -11m debt 135m In 2018 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.061 cf 5m debt 126m In 2017 Adjusted operating profit was 45.1 EBITDA 47m eps -0.015 cf 20m debt 102m In 2016 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.115 cf 22m debt 116m In 2015 Adjusted operating profit was 28.5 EBITDA 29m eps 0.017 cf - 1m debt 116m * Adjusted operating profit taken from annual report and other numbers from fidelity My conclusion is that MCB has seen a rapid improvement in H2 and current trading profits are back to near normal levels. MCB share price is up 50% ytd but still only 25% to 50% of its value 2-5 years ago. IMO a 100% rise to 60p should be rapid. I also see a possibility that MCB will make exceptional profits over the next 18 months. It depends upon the strength of MCB's competition across Europe. Pre Covid margins were under pressure as competition was fierce. That competition would have been exposed to the same cost pressures experience by MCB. How strong is that competition today, did they survive, did they go bust, has capacity been reduced, are they looking to improve margins to repair balance sheets or gain market share. When input prices were rising MCB were on the loosing end of pre agreed pricing contracts. As input prices fall MCB should be able to rebuild margin along with competitors. MCB gaining volume could be seen as competition being weaker. MCB has had a very difficult 2 years. As they exit debt and interest payments will be higher. However the stock has not been diluted, in fact there are currently fewer shares than 5 years ago due to the badly timed share buy back. The debt deal they did last September will, I believe dilute MCB's shares by 11% in the future. Finally we should expect revenue going forward to be under pressure as higher volumes is unlikely to offset falling input and selling prices. |
It looks like you are not logged in. Click the button below to log in and keep track of your recent history.
Support: +44 (0) 203 8794 460 | support@advfn.com
By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions
Hot Features
Premium
