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Real-Time news about Matra (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|beggarman: Ted - They may have to hold their shares for twelve months after listing but if the price was sky high that would dissuade potential buyers.
We need to know the complete deal, they are not listing the shares for no reason, they will at least be raising fresh capital via a placing and possibly a merger as well. Until we know how the restructuring pans out it's difficult to make an assessment regarding the share price. I believe they will be looking at around 10sek so the minimum consolidation factor would be 100/1 but it could be higher.|
|calmtrader: Beggarman share price doesnt matter it the value of your holding pre and post listing ... i believe MTA LN market cap will be equate around $25m on listing|
|beggarman: calm - We don't know what the market cap will be until all deals are on the table. I believe that Matra USA will be valued at $100m/£80m but there has to be a placing and we don't know how much that will be and there could also be a merger with a listed company which would speed up the process.
Regarding the share price, it depends on the type of investor they wish to attract. If they are looking for retail investors the share price will be lower than if they are looking for institutional investors. The share price can be controlled by the consolidation factor.|
|budgetbond: beggar, you mentioned this week about the reports earlier this year that the banker had been playing hardball (I think they came from calmtrader originally). I suspect they may have been close to a deal back in May when the share price was SEK2.5 but then rose to SEK3.3 by the beginning of June which could have stalled the deal.
However, the share price is now at SEK1.1 which is 80% lower than it was 12 months ago and that may be why the deal is now back on - difficult to play hardball from that position|
|budgetbond: matra, harry - great posts
super, my take on their reasons for delisting was that MB didn't want to lose control of the structure of the company ownership (i.e. he didn't want someone else coming in and taking a big stake in the company that he didn't want involved. Perfectly possible while the share price was at 0.35p when delisted) IMHO. Of course, we'll never know but it doesn't matter now
I'm absolutely convinced there will be more to this than just a straight forward listing. I dont believe that they will have worked for three years whilst delisted to increase the share price from 0.8p (which MB bought in at) to 1p (likely share price if listing with a £80m market cap). I just dont see it.|
|beggarman: budget - Dome is currently worth around £5m and Matra USA is worth about £80m but they also need to raise fresh capital, could be £20m which would give a market cap of about £105m. There are currently 32m Dome shares in circulation but the EGM is to increase the shares in issue and I presume they will make a placing.
Suppose they consolidated the Matra plc shares at 100 to 1, that would be 21m shares. The Rovello shares would then be 42m which means Matra USA would have 63m in the new entity. The Dome shareholders would receive 6.25% of 63m, this being 4m. The placing would be 16m, giving the total number of shares in the new entity of 83m. This would give a share price of approximately £1.27 per share, they may try and list the new entity at 15sek per share.|
|beggarman: It could be due to the restructuring, if they listed in the US they would have to have a share price of around $5 as a company is automatically delisted if the share price drops below $1 for a period of time. Whilst in Sweden there are no such restrictions.
I also think it has something to do with Mangold Fondkommission AB, they may be able to make it easier to raise capital based on Barskiys previous reputation in Sweden.|
|ultrapunch: I just posted this reply to a nervous, novice, investor worried that MB might sell his 575m shares, at the current sp, for a £10m profit.
MB has 575m MTA shares. How could he sell all those shares onto the market without the MTA share price collapsing? Just think about it. Even if he tried doing it in stages you just couldn't dump 575m shares onto the market without the share price collapsing. The MM's definitely wouldn't give you a good price, that's for sure. Why do you think that MM's open at a very low price after an AIM oiler announces a duster at 7am in the morning? Because they know there will be an awful lot of sellers looking to get out at the best price possible. The MM's aint mugs!! If there is the prospect of a lot of sellers rushing to sell their shares they aint going to give them a good price, that's for sure, especially since nobody will want to buy them at a good price!! Same way with MB if he tried to sell 575m shares in MTA!! It's the law of supply and demand in action!!
My friend, that £10m profit you talk about is a paper profit only!! If he announced he was leaving MTA the share price would fall dramatically, because MB is currently MTA's prize asset in the eyes of investors and lots would want to sell if he decided to up sticks!! If MB then tried to dump 575m shares onto an already depressed market the share price would probably be back well under a penny!!!!
Investing is only commonsense theg4mbler. There is nothing mystical about it. Just a question of supply and demand. If 575m shares came onto the market the price collapses because supply would far outway demand!! A lot of investors wanting to sell and nobody wanting to buy!! MM's lower the price to attract buyers because they make their money from the difference between the selling and buying price. They don't want to buy a load of shares if there are no buyers. They are only traders only they trade in shares rather than fruit and veg!! Just plain commonsense. Just like any other commodity shares are subject to the laws governing supply and demand.
Anyway your fears are completely unjustified. MB has only recently invested £4.6m in MTA. He will want to make a big return on his money. As big as possible. The only way he is going to do that is to grow MTA, both organically and by acquisition, so that MTA will one day become attractive enough to a bigger rival for it to receive a takeover bid. Then hopefully him and us, to a far lesser degree, will walk away with lots of profit in 4 or 5 years time.
There is no need to worry or be nervous.|
|ultrapunch: A question from king.cash on lse and my reply.
i was wondering is u can put a conservative share price on matra with the following: a14 finds an extra 10mmbbls and flows at 2000bopd, a14 flows at 2000bopd but does not find extra oil. If well 309 joins onto soko then well a14 in theory could be the crest of the structure. If we do not have a placing in april where do u see the sp? I did find fridays rise very positive as sells outweighed buys buy 2 to 1 and the price ticked up. The temperatures in russia are now into the plus so maybe 3 weeks will see a pump installed on a13. Ph thinks this is a few days to complete with the rig erection and so on. Do u think its likely to see a13 update b4 placing? A14 could spud end of june. Thanks
My reply to king.cash
I can't conceive of any situation occuring where A-14 flows at 2000bopd without increasing the current 2C resource, king.cash.
Don't forget ERC's 2C of 15MMbbls recoverable is based solely on the western part of SOKO containing wells A-12 and A-13 and also containing the proposed location of A-14.
That 2C figure will encompass the known A-12 and A-13 well data. Namely the reservoir thicknesses (both 6-7 metres) and the reservoir characteristics (much better at A-12 than at A-13).
Now A-14 is expected to be up-dip of A-12 with a thicker reservoir. If A-14 flows at 2000bopd on open hole test, approximately double that of A-12, then surely the reservoir at A-14 must be thicker than at A-12, hence leading to a higher 2C figure.
In the very unlikely event that A-14 flows at 2000bopd, but has the same reservoir thickness as A-12, then it must be because the reservoir characteristics (porosity, etc) are far superior at A-14 to those at A-12. That again must lead to an increase in the 2C figure.
Whether well 309 is part of SOKO , or not, has no bearing on whether A-14 is considered to be a crestal well. It's already considered to be a crestal well.
PH said on tuesday they will install the pump when the spring thaw has ended. He estimated the thaw will last 4-6 weeks. It's only just started so we could have to wait for up to another 6 weeks for the pump to be installed.
I'm sticking to my theory (and it's my opinion only) that A-14 financing news will be issued before another A-13 update.
With regard to your share price question I prefer to stick to my share price predictions prior to the A-14 results, based on MTA's share price history, otherwise smart alec posters like Stavroginsmith & shatter on lse and here and now on iii start unfairly accusing me of ramping.
In fact I'd rather not make any share price predictions at all, but seeing you asked the question and because I wouldn't be holding the shares if I didn't think the share price would increase from here in the run up to the A-13 results.
Don't forget the MTA Mkt Cap peaked at circa £65m (Jan 2010) in the run up to the A-13 results. It was circa £55m in the days leading up to the A-13 results.
The best estimate (done in house) of SOKO reserves was 65MMbbls. That was issued on 7/7/09 along with the placing for A-13.
SOKO now has a lower best estimate of 53MMbbls recoverable. However that estimate has been arrived at independently of MTA. SOKO also now has an independently verified 2C resource of 15MMbbls in accordance with SPE guidelines.
The Brent/Urals Blend crude price is now 40-50% higher than in July 2009-May2010 in the lead up to A-13 results.
We also now have the added benefit of lower Russian Mineral Extraction Taxes (MET) compared with 2009/2010.
Plus the added excitement and potential generated by the proposed patch reefs!!!!
Hence I expect the run up to the A-14 results to generate a higher maximum Mkt Cap than that during the run up to the A-13 results.
It's hard to convert that to an share price because we don't know how much dilution the next placing (or farm in) will entail. Fox-Davies assumed a 2.1bn shares in issue following the next placing. So I will use that figure in my subsequent share price calculations
If I assume a maximum Mkt Cap of £100m in the run up to the A-14 results that gives my maximum share price as circa 5p. I don't think my max £100m Mkt Cap is being over optimistic. It might even be considered overly cautious by some bearing in mind the improved potential of A-14 compared with A-13 and also the fact that the best estimate and 2C figure have been arrived at independently of MTA by the ERC CPR, unlike the inhouse projections of 7/7/09, which don't carry anywhere near the same weight.
All this assumes the Brent/Urals Blend price stays high at circa current levels.
After the A-14 results? That will depend on the results. Whether they are up to Mkt Expectations, exceed Mkt Expectations or are very poor, like with A-13.
I suggested prior to the A-13 results that the share price could double, or even triple, on a thicker reservoir at A-13 (say 10-15m) and better reservoir properties. I also suggested that the share price could halve on poor A-13 results. In fact we had very poor results and the share price plunged by 70% on the day of the results.
I think the same could happen with A-14. A thicker reservoir and with better properties at A-14 (say 10-15m, plus more than 1000bopd) and the share price could double to 10p. Hit a patch reef and we could be talking of 15p, even 20p, if the well flowed at 4000bopd. On the other hand we could halve if A-14 isn't up-dip of A-12 and doesn't have a thicker reservoir. Even worse could happen to the share price if the reservoir characteristics are as poor as at A-13.
The chances of the above happening? Please refer to the ERC CPR. You have there all the independent information and CoS figures on which you can make your decision on whether to buy, or sell MTA, shares, both now and at any time in the lead up to the A-14 results. The ERC CPR is your BIble when it comes to making any decision on MTA shares. Good Luck!!!!|
|ultrapunch: Hello kevin. 8m MTA shares!! Makes my holding seem paltry by comparison!!
Something I just posted on iii.
Hopefully A-14 will increase the size of the Proven and Probable reserves in the South Western sector of SOKO by adding some, or all, of the Possible reserves quoted by the CPR for this sector. The CPR stated that their 15.1MMbbls 2P recoverable reserves for SOKO largely relates to the South West of SOKO (in the vicinity of A-12 and A-13). However we will have to wait for further wells in the rest of SOKO to get an idea of what SOKO actually contains in total.
The actual flow rate for A-14 will be absolutely crucial to MTA's future and hence share price. If A-14 flows at 1000bopd, or better, then theoretically it will only take a further 6 wells to be drilled in the South Western sector to achieve MTA's maximum target of 6000-7000bopd from the current 15.1MMbbls 2P recoverable in the S.W.. At US$4.5m cost per well that would mean total CAPEX for the S.W. sector of US$27m. That means MTA would make an awful lot of money very quickly if Brent crude stays over US$100 per bbl. The OPEX cost will also be a tiny proportion, as a percentage, of each wells "costs".
However if A-14 (and subsequent S.W. sector wells) only flowed at 100bopd like A-13, because of poor reservoir characteristics then that would mean MTA would need another 60-70 wells to achieve maximum production in the S.W. That would mean CAPEX increases to a total of US$270m-US$315m. That would mean MTA would be unlikely to make much money out of the S.W. sector of SOKO. It could, in fact, make the development of the S.W. of SOKO completely non-viable. The OPEX would also be a much larger percentage of the wells "costs".
It is imperative that A-14 flows as good, if not better, than A-12. 1000bopd+ from A-14 is key to MTA's share price We know that A-12 is capable of producing at 1000bopd because MTA said so last October. If a patch reef is hit by A-14 then because patch reefs invariably contain excellent reservoir characteristics (excellent porosity and permeability) 2000bopd is perfectly within reason. If that happens then the MTA share price will rocket upwards because it means CAPEX costs will be DRAMATICALLY reduced.
When I say MTA is a pure gamble it relates to the gamble of A-14 striking a patch reef. Hitting a patch reef is absolutely key to MTA's future. It also makes me continue to gamble on MTA. I was the first on this bb (over a year ago) to highlight the staggering potential of patch reefs.
Unfortunately Peter Hind decided to spend valuable time sidetracking A-12 to no avail instead of raising some more cash, when the share price was much higher than it is now, to drill A-14. If he had spudded A-14 a year ago the MTA share price could be over 10p by now instead of a paltry 0.8p!! (approval for A-14 would have been quicker a year ago as well since Russian approval regs have changed recently) I know this is with the benefit of hindsight, but making the right decisions is what PH is paid his £200k annual salary for. His record, over the years, for making the right decisions is extremely poor.
PS High potential flow rates are one advantage MTA has over PTR. The CAPEX cost expressed as a percentage of each wells total costs should be much lower for MTA than for PTR if MTA can achieve over 1000bopd per well on average. That would mean MTA being much more profitable per bbl of oil produced than PTR. Something to think about.
Lets all pray that A-14 hits a patch reef!!
Matra Petroleum share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange