Marwyn Value Investors Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 19/2/2015 09:18

Beginning to feel like the right time for a top again here IMO...based on it being a nice looking point on the chart and ETO beginning to show some strength

[skyship] 10/2/2015 15:45

Good to see ETO rallying well - now back up to 297p, so the MVI NAV back up to 278p...

[ianbrewster] 09/2/2015 11:10

Piece on Citywire

Marywn: why we can return another 270% in next eight years

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/marywn-why-we-can-return-another-270-in-next-eight-years/a796726?ref=wealth-manager-videos-list

[bamboo2] 28/1/2015 09:06

Looking at the symmetrical triangle here. A close above the magenta line would be confirmation for a target of approx 233. fibs indicate target only. Triangle concludes w/c 30/3/15, [1st or 2nd Apr?]

[rjmahan] 25/1/2015 22:48

Why isnt long MVI / short ETO an obvious trade everyone is doing ?

You get (say) 30% return after costs over 2/3 years - pretty much risk free no ?

[strathroyal] 08/1/2015 14:47

tiltonboy,

Thanks for all of your recent posts.

No doubt their policy (BTEM)has changed since John Walton's day but I still regard their style as long term holders rather than activists, as many of the holdings (GBL, JM for example) have been a mainstay of the portfolio for years. Having said that, BTEM is a very solid company that I look at from time to time but haven't invested in for quite a while.

[tiltonboy] 08/1/2015 13:49

strathroyal,

The discount will narrow as we close in on NOV 16, but as it's still 23 months away, timing that contraction will be difficult.

I hold BTEM and have met the managers a couple of times. I think you will find they are somewhat more aggressive than they used to be. They don't mind getting their hands dirty. They have also got a decent stake in JPEL, and have been proactive on that one.

[strathroyal] 08/1/2015 12:36

Parsimonious distribution to say the least. Short term it is difficult to see the discount narrowing. Interestingly, as Skyship notes, this is a Robert Ware vehicle and he (RW) has also commented on the large discount to NAV (as he sees it) at CIC, yet they don't seem to want to address it in practice.

Whilst there are activist investors here, I note that BTEM also have a sizeable stake and I have never seen them as aggressive investors so I think the present level of discount is here to stay. Nevertheless both this share and CIC offer decent longer term returns.

[tiltonboy] 08/1/2015 11:57

FT,

Please note it is NOV 2016.

Your assumptions are correct, however I would add a couple of points. MVI have moved the goalposts previously, and it wouldnt surprise me if they try it again, but given the shareholder base is awash with activists/arbs/discount players, I'm not sure that they would get anything through.

Secondly, I wouldn't be surprised to see MVI sell the ETO holding shortly prior to the NOV 16 deadline, to avoid the Realisation Class issues. They would still have to pay out to shareholders, but that would only be 50%, of the upside from NOV 13 levels to the price they sold at. It would mean that MVI retain a significant amount of funds to re-invest.

What was disappointing, and surprising given their activist track record, was that Weiss sold their holding in MVI last year. They probably lost patience in the management of MVI to deliver against promises.

There is nothing to force the managers to sell the holding in ETO, which they believe to be substantially undervalued.

In terms of not electing for the Realisation class of shares, then you only have to look at the track record of the managers of MVI to see why people will stay with them; it's pretty stunning. When I first got involved with MVI a couple of years ago, I did so on the basis of the discount, and would have urged for a wind-up there and then(I'm an opportunistic investor that doesn't get wed to stocks). What a mistake that would have been!

As for market forces maintaining the discount, well MVI have actually outperformed ETO over the last 12 months by a decent margin, so the discount has narrowed a little, but as to why it is still so wide, I must admit to being perplexed.

I would favour an inspecie distribtion of the holding, and we can then make our own minds up on the merits of holding ETO.

[fishbournetrader] 08/1/2015 11:18

Thanks Tilton.

So from 16 November if the fund sells all or part of any of its shareholding the shareholders who have elected for the realisation class will receive their proportion of the proceeds of the sale in cash.

Is there anything to force the fund managers to start selling the fund's shareholdings?
Is there any reason for shareholders of MVI to not elect for the realisation class?

What is the market force that is maintaining the discount to NAV?

[skyship] 08/1/2015 10:21

Thnx for that brief summary. As for the prize - as BT suggests, another bottle of something worthwhile waiting in the Chateau wine cellar...

[tiltonboy] 08/1/2015 09:58

FT,

It's a way of appeasing MVI holders who would prefer an exit for the investment. We will have a small portion of our shares redeemed at NAV, which is around 35% higher than the current price. From 30th November 2016, holders will be able to elect for a "realisation class", which will enable holders to elect for their cash back on the realisation of any assets.

I would guess the vast majority of the holders on here have bought on the basis of the discount, and a potential arb opportunity in ETO, rather than the direct merits of ETO. Of course, the performance of ETO matters to all of us, but MVI holders see it as the preferred route.

Hope that helps.

[badtime] 08/1/2015 09:57

Well done Tilts...jolly to Skys chateau is the prize again

[fishbournetrader] 08/1/2015 08:56

I am a holder of ETO which has naturally led to an interest in MVI. Can anyone give a quick idiot's guide to what this distribution is?

[tiltonboy] 08/1/2015 07:42

Thought I was being a bit optimistic.

What's my prize!

[skyship] 08/1/2015 07:21

Well done Tilts - you recognised more than I that this is a Robert Ware vehicle - never give away more to shareholders than is really necessary!

[jaws6] 08/1/2015 07:10

it is 8.225 p divi.RNS

[badtime] 06/1/2015 22:58

i'll go for 9p

[tiltonboy] 06/1/2015 19:24

I will go for 8.5p

[skyship] 06/1/2015 19:05

It would seem entirely reasonable to pay out more than last year. I'll opt for 12p...10p would surely be construed as parsimonious in the circumstances!

[strathroyal] 06/1/2015 17:50

Thanks for your input tiltonboy, looks like I will be disappointed.

[tiltonboy] 06/1/2015 14:18

strathroyal,

I think you are going to be disappointed. Looking at the figures, I think you will only see a return from BREE of just over 3p. So possibly just over 8p in total.