Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[maffoo] 03/2/2017 14:54

Sorry for the slow reply, exel. Yes I think it's highly likely, but whatever the reason, whether it's declining due to climate, lack of demand, or MM manipulation, the outcome was still the same. Perhaps I would've been better off without the SL kicking in, but tbh I think I'd prefer having the money back at a small loss and put it somewhere else where I see more growth potential.

[olliemagern] 03/2/2017 14:36

Janekane whats wrong?
With underlying eps of 14p, 12.7p normal and 7.3p div i wondered how much tangible net asset value NTAV had risen this year. I was surprised to find they had actually fell from 90.5p to 84.5p.
I found a £51m loss on cash flow hedges with an £11m profit transferred to the income statement, giving a net loss of £40m. On further examination i found cash flow hedge losses in 8 and profit in 2 of the last 10 years. The total loss before tax on cash flow hedges in the last 10 years was a staggering £185m.

Over the years i have seen many companies use financial instruments very few gain and the banks and underwriters make massive profits from convincing companies to use derivatives. Without the hedging NTAV would be significantly higher and gearing would be lower. If last years £40m hedge loss was not an ‘exceptional’ and treated as normal business trading, eps would be nearer 6p. I am now agreeing with jeffian’s past posts that GNK seem to have better prospects.

I have been a shareholder for a few years and have been very impressed with their repositioning of the group over the last 4 years, its only this gripe that spoils it for me. If they had hedged the falling £ they would have made a profit. So can anyone tell me what assets or figures are they actually hedging?

[skinny] 03/2/2017 09:00

02 Feb Barclays Capital Underweight 133.65 140.00 130.00 Retains

[janekane] 03/2/2017 08:19

something radically wrong here
great results /great profit whats holding us back ??

[dogwalker] 27/1/2017 20:10

I had some deepfried MARS the other day - part of a so-called Burns Night dinner. What would Robbie have made of it , really?

[r ball] 27/1/2017 19:41

Solid hold for divi yield

[exel] 27/1/2017 19:00

Thanks, ianood, You have confirmed what I had suspected, for some time, which (partly) is why I typically don't use stop loss, rightly or wrongly. Still believe in MARS for the medium/longer term, but am really concerned about the ongoing hits to biz and consumer confidence - with all this needless political sh*t going on! We should simply stay in Europe, argue our corner, wind our necks in, and work much harder to close our debt deficit and trade imbalance. leaving EU and single market will make both much worse. In a perverse way, do sense that these concerns (and inflation specifically) are feeding into this weak share price ex

[ianood] 27/1/2017 17:57

Happens on nearly all stocks, especially when they are quiet.
On the old LIFFE market the locals used to take prices down at lunchtime, when markets were quiet and before the US came in, a pip at a time just to take out the small stops and to find out where any real resistance lay. They would then march the prices back up. You'd come back from lunch to find prices unchanged but all near stops taken out!

[exel] 27/1/2017 17:48

maffoo, would the MMs ever drive down prices in a form of 'tree shake' to force stop losses into effect, thus allowing them (the MMs) to buy back stock 'on the cheap', so they can then walk the price back up - selling higher? Have heard of this sort of thing, elsewhere, to drum up business, but don't know whether (eg) MARS stock would ever fall prey to this practice? Would be interested in your and other views. ex

[maffoo] 27/1/2017 15:35

My stop loss kicked in today... may wait a while before I consider reinvesting.

[exel] 26/1/2017 14:57

yet another buying op - earlier today! ex

[janekane] 26/1/2017 08:57

Pay bay Monday ( I reinvest) my divi
The lodges will give great results with high net profits
This is a classic long term hold
If after reinvesting all dividend after 5 years here you could get a 25% /30% return on your original investment

[exel] 25/1/2017 23:44

Fair points, jeffian, am in agreement with pretty much everything you have said. Don't wish to be stupidly bullish about MARS, or any stock for that matter? but a growing property portfolio & reasonable asset-backing is key in difficult times - such as we all now face. I still maintain that MARS is at, or just passing, an earnings inflection point and is looking quite under-rated. Now, even if the expected re-rating slips back a year or two, given brexit concerns et al, this group seems to be going in the right direction at a steady yet sustainable pace. There clearly are, and will be, headwinds - but this one could snap back up to where it was, a year or so back, as soon as the earnings/dividend pattern strengthens just a bit more - off the back of the recent upwards trend. Could be wrong of course, but think today (and days like it) was a buying op more than anything else, on the back of weak sentiment for the sector generally. Best of luck!

[jeffian] 25/1/2017 23:16

Don't knock yourself, jbfnfn. Remember the 'Clever People' have been wrong about everything recently - Brexit, Trump and, most importantly, the British economy. If 40 respected economists write to the papers about something, you can guarantee they're going to be wrong. Trust your own judgement.

As I've said before on this thread, it's horses for courses. MARS is never going to be one of those shares that sets the world alight. If you're looking for 10-baggers (probably illusory!), you'll be in bio-techs and speculative gold miners and the chances are you'll lose the lot. If, as I do, you have a sum of money to invest on which you want a return, you want a degree of security from asset-backing and you hope for growth at least in advance of inflation, then MARS may fit the bill. I'm in 'drawdown' on my pension and MARS forms a part of the portfolio. You say "the sector is out of favour. Not much comfort if you are a holder underwater like me. Will just have to wait till the sector is in fashion." Indeed, but it isn't that painful receiving a 5.4% return (where else can you get that?!), twice covered, while you wait.

[exel] 25/1/2017 21:07

I topped up again today. ex

[jbfnfn] 25/1/2017 20:02

FWIW Martin Waller wrote about MARS today in the Tempus column in the Times. I found a paper copy in my local Pub. The gist of it was it's too early to buy into MARS as the sector is out of favour. Not much comfort if you are a holder underwater like me. Will just have to wait till the sector is in fashion. I could give up drinking halves and put the money into more MARS shares. No advice intended, I know nothing. I only have a comprehensive school education.

[exel] 24/1/2017 09:14

There is absolutely nothing wrong with the MARS agm update. But we are now in very jittery times, which will probably get steadily worse, rather than better on the macro, national, international fronts - for the *foreseeable future (* about as far as the end of most noses right now). will that stop people going out for a meal and a drink in the areas where MARS is strong? doubt it. as inflation ticks up, and wine becomes more expensive, many may switch to UK brewed ales, more basic food, and also take their hols here, too - given the ever-growing cost of leaving the island on which many of us are now captive! People may also trade down from more expensive eateries to family-friendly pub scenarios. At its core, there is also an emerging property play here, too, with relatively high TNAV to MarketCap. at circa 62% to just 26% in the case of Greene King. No ramp intended, but this stock must be on various radars in terms of a 3 to 5 year forward view. With a circa 5.4% mildly progressive yield from the 135p mark it still feels a tad under-priced, even today - with all the jitters 'out there'. just my take. ex

[poolies3] 24/1/2017 08:20

Yes compared to Easyjet and BT

You need good results to stand still

[lord gnome] 24/1/2017 08:19

Nothing wrong with that. Keep Calm and Drink Beer!

[r ball] 24/1/2017 07:56

Steady as she goes.

[jeffian] 23/1/2017 11:50

Doesn't specifically say so in the 'Calendar' but they usually give a Trading Statement at the AGM, so I expect so.

[poolies3] 23/1/2017 11:42

Is there a trading update as well?

[janekane] 23/1/2017 11:13

AGM tomorrow

[maffoo] 09/1/2017 09:09

The pubs seem hugely popular in my hometown of Manchester, but where I live now, in Bristol, they are pretty much non-existent. The closest thing is a single Pitcher & Piano in the city centre (which is not my glass of Prosecco, but seems quite popular and people seem to splash out a lot there).

I hope the share price will bounce back up to ~150 at some point; it appears to have plateaued/squeezed a bit in the past three months or so. It's a massively slow moving one at any rate! I've been putting some US tech stocks into my portfolio recently and seeing the difference between their minute-by-minute mosquito-like movements and this one that's like a salted slug is quite funny. The dividend is definitely very nice, however.

I think the question is what kind of direction we see it moving in. If the slow uptrend continues and it's hitting the 180s by 2020, I'll be a happy bunny.