Market Tech Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 26/3/2004 21:32

thnx, ML.
Looks like we are headed to Gold-$440+

[mountlake] 26/3/2004 21:12

Given that inflation is the presence of credit expansion....it's got to be inflation that's ahead ??
someone pointed out recently :
all the things we need will go UP (house, food, petrol)
all the things we want will go DOWN (pc, dvd, consumer toys)

( nice move silver and gold, energyi ! ;-)...)

[energyi] 25/3/2004 19:34

RULE OF ALTERNATION?

(from the DEN):
{LBGary}
I am probably showing my age, but back in the 70's I ran across a paper back by Harry Browne "How to Profit from the Coming Devaluation". I was like that guy with the kid and his Karate lessions. I must of read it 100 times. There is one comment he made that keeps bubbling up in my mind these days. It was in the chapter discussing whether we would have a deflationary or inflationary depression at the end of the financial cycle. Browne's feeling was that it would be inflationary because the FED will act against a repeat of another deflationary depression and will cause an inflationary one in the process - kind of the rule of alternation that OB1 discusses

[energyi] 23/3/2004 15:26

LINK to the Russell article:


the only animal Russell sees is a big, ugly bear. "I'm afraid we are coming into one of the worst bear markets in history," he says.

At 79, Russell has decades of experience running against the tide. As founder and scribe of the Dow Theory Letters (and a sometime contributor to Barron's), he practically has made a career of bucking Wall Street's conventional wisdom, much to his fans' delight.

[energyi] 23/3/2004 14:00

This report, by Woody Dorsey (Semiotics)
covers some of the same topics:


Woody nearly CALLED THE BOTTOM here : (LOW was two days later)

MARKET SUMMARY FOR March 11th, 2003
HERD AT THE CURB: As noted, the fever pitch of the E*RAK slogan is totally
typical of the sort of significant conceptual seduction characteristic of an equity market turn. We repeat the following because it is a principle which continues to serve investors well: " The annals of underperformance are riddled with men who were too early. "Remain patient and wait to buy. We forget that the markets are explained by principles rather than the minutiae of particular provisional market or media stories. Fixed income is near or at an important high. Do not hesitate to sell all longs over the next days into the FOMC meeting.

The long side of equities is shaping up nicely but not quite yet.
...
EQUITY STRATEGY:
NEW: The next low will set up two rallies lasting into August.
BUT: From the first high due in late May, there will be a very sharp correction which
could still be part of the rolling capitulation process. If so, new lows in some indices could still occur. From June, there will be a stronger Summer rally.

HERD AT THE CURB–TM March 11th, 2003:
Profile remains on track with expected decline into low near 3/18ish or 3/24ish followed by strong rally into April 9-16 in context of larger rally into late May.
Stocks enter Final Decline over next 6-10 Days B4 Playable Low

[energyi] 23/3/2004 00:23

E-WAVE THEORY is useful to trading.

But I'm not sure Prechter is the top practicianer.
Don Wolanchuk or even our own Goodfella may be better

[sixpak] 22/3/2004 23:29

;-) i figured a couple of ppl sneaked in... I'll be better prepared next time ;-), by the way everyone who was left was welcome to stand at the back and did so!
Yeh we had trouble finding a lecturer to introduce him to be honest, even the guy who spoke wasnt convinced, and i dont think he knew what he was getting himself into ;-)

Your right when i spoke to Prechter he didnt actually do much trading before either, even for Merril he was just a research analyst... Though a good one.
He dosnt do much trading now, I guess alot of the stuff from EWI isn't his, though I'm sure they have excellent ellioticians.

six

[mountlake] 22/3/2004 16:49

was at the lecture also...thanks energyi for the tip to this site !

Precht and his material compelling from an intellectual point of view
someone points out he's been wrong for the last year or so...
remember: he's not a trader or a tipster...
from a trader viewpoint, a useful scene-setter

careful about the stuff that's sent out from EWI...not much of the daily stuff is Prechter. (source: close friend) I'm a bit mystified that they didn't pick up on the turn last year. it was pretty well signalled Mar/Apr even though people didn't really notice it consciously until summertime.

You guys at LSE are compelled to understand this...i thought your corporate finance lecturer who intro'ed Robert may not have been all that keen on the material...thank you for organising it by the way...even if loads were turned away at the door ;-) lucky me, i didn't have a reservation, just kept my mouth shut and my head down low !

[energyi] 19/3/2004 16:07

TS,
Yes, it is old ground in a way.
Why academia has never picked up this subject (Crowd behavior)
properly is a mystery to me. It has great application to Markets
& Economics

[torturedsoul] 19/3/2004 15:39

i didnt attend the lecture but it sounds alot like he's covering the same material as the "extraordinary popular delusions and madness of crowds" that was written by charles mckay and first published in 1841.

interesting stuff, worth a read if you haven't read it already.

[sixpak] 19/3/2004 12:27

lol no that was a lecturer at the LSE.

I was one of the students running about =).

How was his introduction by the way, I didnt get a chance to hear it?

six

[energyi] 19/3/2004 11:13

That's great.
He must be keen to promote the academic respectability of Socionomics.
The S. website is worth a visit.
But an academic friend of mine who also attended the lecture thought
that there was little academiv rigour in his arguments (Maybe it was the
wrong audience)

BTW,
Was that you introducing Mr. P., before he spoke?

[sixpak] 19/3/2004 11:07

Hey Energy

Nah he was great about costs.
It was student society so we covered the venue and catering etc.
He didn't ask for fee. I only got intouch with him through a colleague of his.
He even took me out to lunch day before, so it was cool.

six

[energyi] 19/3/2004 10:01

six,
Hey that's great! thnx for organising it.
Can you mention something about the cost?
Did he cover his own expenses, or did he get a fee?
(Im curious because I know someone else looking for a speaker)

Hat.,
He refused to discuss his current market view.
That wasnt the point of the lecture. When the question came up,
he offered to take an address and send out 2 reports

[sixpak] 19/3/2004 08:58

Thanks guys, glad you enjoyed.

Will let u know when a tape becomes available, probably take a while yet.
In the meantime get his double book set. I think it covers most of the material in the lecture.

Also there was an alumnus of LSE that i know, she now works for Morgan Stanley FX and said that the bank just loves elliotwave and uses it for every currency and time period so. So i guess if the Investment Banks's are using it, its almost certainly profitable.

six

[hatman] 19/3/2004 06:52

e

What's Prechter's current view? Still harping on about depression and bust banks, or are we going up into wave 5? Did his talk cover latest predictions?

six

Would appreciate the video or an audio.

Couldn't be there myself.

[goatbreath] 19/3/2004 06:38

I wasn't at the lecture but I have read of lot of his work and find it compelling. But I am somewhat less convinced by his short term market calls especially considering the extortionate subscription fee to his website - I'm not a subscriber but I've tried out his free week a couple of times and cannot see what you get for your money.

[moonblue] 19/3/2004 00:21

it has no business being

[collection agency] 19/3/2004 00:15

Thks Six , appreciate it.

[sixpak] 19/3/2004 00:06

We actually filmed it. I'll post on here when its available.
Trying to get a copy for myself too, dont think i caught more than 20min of that lecture ;-(

six

[collection agency] 19/3/2004 00:04

Six, I couldn't make it to the lse today. Is there an audio recording?

TIA

The Agency.

[sixpak] 18/3/2004 23:49

lol hi Energyi i organised it mate!!!

Glad to see people enjoyed

regards
six

[collection agency] 18/3/2004 23:48

Is it the actions of the herd lead by their emotional inference of the news or,

Is it the guiding of the herd to a mindset that makes them more pliant in setting the mood.

Bloomberg/cnbc etc are the public face of the manipulation of mood. Especially in the US. TV is king there.

A question for you all. When did US job growth suddenly become the all consuming factor in measuring recovery/non-recovery?

For some, its been a concern for well over 2 years.

For others it became a concern in Jan 04 when bloomers et al started to make it a headline story and the interviews with the pit traders started to centre on these numbers.

Am I alluding to a conspiracy? A method of pre-planting bad mood for bad numbers in the human thought process? I am.

Cos when the mkts then come down the reason given to Joe Public is quite reasonable, old Joe excepts it cos its what he has been told is the main mkt mover.

As some know though its got nothing to do with why the mkts have gone down. Mkts are down because the Insts are locking in profits. Joe Public thinks its cos job growth is poor. He feels happy that at least he knows whats happening.

It gives him a reason to accept a loss. It doesn't make him sell. The figs will get better eventually (Ali G et al) so the mkt will go back up right? Right?

On a historical note, the best time to buy shares is in a low interest environment (ie bond prices high, yields low). If you are an Institutional House would you want Joe Public buying shares at the bottom or buying them at the top?

Where does that put us now? On face value practically all (2 lol) readers will say buy now, its a low rate environment....so how come we have had Assurers etc flogging for liquidity purposes, how come the dow has been 600 points off its (its a bull mkt, its different this time) top? Why sell now?

Maybe this isn't a low rate environment. Maybe rates are going to drop dramatically (think Japan) lower than we think.

But hey, maybe interest rates will go up, now where did I hear that....?