Mariana Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 17/2/2017 13:38

Good stuff Chip.
If like Ariana (AAU) which is about to start gold/silver production in Turkey,Mine complete, just waiting Ministry sign off) they will get very generous tax concessions - Strategic Tax status

[chipperfrd] 17/2/2017 13:14

I am a bit late in catching up with the PEA and with comments on this BB.

For what it is worth I thought I would try and model average LoM cashflows given the somewhat limited data available from the PEA. The PFS should eventually provide far better detail in all areas, but until this becomes available (3Q17?) I felt I needed a rough estimate of what the value for Hot Maden might be.

No data available for average mined tonnage, so I have estimated c. 2mtpa, given that it is proposed as an underground mine (therefore minimal waste).

Base case of PEA is 1mtpa so went with that over an 8-year production cycle (clearly this could/likely expand as the resource/reserve grows).

Averaging 2.6m Au oz and 142kt Cu over 8 years and ignoring minimal development production prior to commercial production results in average annual production of c. 325k oz Au and 17.75kt Cu over LoM.

The PEA provides price estimates for Gold and Copper (hence gross revenue) and also provides TC/RC costs for Copper/Gold concentrate and Royalty percentages which would appear to indicate average Net Revenues for the HM project of c. US$463m pa.

OPEX costs are provided but without detail on total mined (ie ore plus waste) the Mining OPEX has to remain a bit of a guess! In total I estimate average total OPEX (ie Mining, Processing & G&A) at c. US$87m pa.

This would imply that average cash operating costs are c. US$269/oz.

Sustaining CAPEX of US$92m over LoM of 8 years averages out at US$11.5m pa.

Hence, All in Sustaining Costs (AISC) would appear to average out at c. US$304/oz - which is outstanding!!

Before tax net cashflows average out at c. US$364m pa and at a 20% Corporate Tax Rate, the after tax cashflow is c. US$291m pa.

Using these annual numbers I get a NPV of US$1.39B (so fairly close to the PEA) but my IRR comes out somewhat higher at 173% compared to the base case of 153% in the PEA.

MARL's share of these project cashflows is (currently) 30%. This works out at an average of c. US$87m pa.

Fully diluted shares issued is currently 148m, so projected average cashflow per share is US$0.59 and after applying current FOREX of 1.2419 that results in 47.6p per MARL FD share.

At a reasonably conservative cashflow multiple of 5x this provides a target of 238p.

However, in order to keep their 30% all the way through to production, MARL needs to contribute c. US$50.7m towards pre-production CAPEX - so debt/dilution are obviously required if they are to keep their holding in this project.

Just my opinion and no advice given or implied.

The PFS will (should) be far more informative.
Chip

[cpap man] 17/2/2017 11:28

And so is MARL [and quite rightly so!]

[barrywhit] 17/2/2017 11:27

Gold fighting back now $1241....

[barrywhit] 16/2/2017 11:54

Another interview, this time on Ergama:



He really needs to update the market on Hot Maden's drilling results to ignite a bit of buying interest......

[barrywhit] 16/2/2017 11:47

Someone dumping stock and has been for quite a time in 10k & 20k lots...would be interesting to see an updated shareholder register....

[dilbert dogbreadth] 15/2/2017 19:06

GR I bought 25k at 70p and sold at 73.1p ( I have plenty already ) for £750 profit for a couple hrs ( non ) work. Nice reversal and seemed like a bottom to me.

[pr0t0n] 15/2/2017 17:32

Barry,

Don`t think you missed anything....no BID yet :-)
Bit of sell off or shorting... dare I say.
Usual AIM shenanigans...
Hope weather was good for golf/ ?!!

[greenrichard] 15/2/2017 16:32

I managed to buy another load at 70p for a short term punt so happy for the opportunity.

[barrywhit] 15/2/2017 16:23

Just got in from a days golf, looks like a missed all the excitement...large trading day.....

[pr0t0n] 15/2/2017 12:52

Also...
Back in 2010...
,,,,,"Mariana Resources Ltd ('Mariana' or 'the Company'), the AIM quoted exploration
and development company focussed on Argentina and Chile, has purchased the
Estancia La Calandria and thereby the freehold surface rights to the 23,400
hectare area of its flagship Las Calandrias gold and silver project"....

[pr0t0n] 15/2/2017 12:16

Argentinean assets are valued close to 0 at the moment, Las Calandrias hold 500k ounces of gold.
I think that JV or some kind of deal would be welcome.
Pan American Silver Corp. is acquiring Coeur`s Joaqin project for $25 million.
Joaquin has 65.2 million ounces of silver and 61,000 ounces of gold, roughly 750k ounces of gold equivalent.

[buffythebuffoon] 15/2/2017 11:23

IMHO the price has dropped today beyond the normal daily gyrations.

FACT The price has dropped today.

HTH Darius.

Buffy

[buffythebuffoon] 15/2/2017 10:53

Darius,

Absolute nonsense. Anything I say is my opinion. I stand by everything I wrote.

As for libel, you clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

By the way, was that your opinion, or fact? You didn't say.

Buffy

[cpap man] 14/2/2017 14:40

S P Angel

Mariana Resources (MARL LN) 77p, Mkt Cap £95.8m – Drilling underway at Ergama in Turkey

Mariana Resources reports initial results from the first two boreholes of its maiden drilling programme at the wholly owned Ergama project in western Turkey. Results from a third hole in the seven hole programme are still pending. The three holes completed to date represent a total of 1522m of drilling.
Holes ERD-01 and ERD-02 were both drilled towards the south close to the northern margin of the Main Porphyry Target. Both holes intersected mineralisation in three main zones.
ERD-01, which was angled at 75⁰ was completed at a depth of 480m and intersected 3 zones of mineralisation:
66m at an average grade of 0.22 g/t from 43.8m
88m at an average grade of 0.19g/t gold from 117.8m, and
22m at 0.25 g/t gold from 218.5m downhole
ERD-02, which was angled at 45⁰ was drilled to a depth of 626.4m and encountered:
141m at an average grade of 0.23g/t gold from a depth of 57m
56m at 0.22 g/t gold from a depth of 274m, and
156.4m at 0.25 g/t gold from 470m to the end of the hole. The final 56.4m of the hole, from a depth of 570m averaged 0.33g/t gold and 0.12% copper
The drilling is following up targets defined by geophysical induced polarisation (IP) surveying and the identification of surface hydrothermal alteration. The drilling shows “strong stockworking … with grades increasing at depth to the south.” Commenting on the initial results, Chief Executive, Glen Parsons, highlighted the similarity in grades to the Teck-Pilot Gold’s Halilaga Project with a resource of 182.7mt of indicated resources at an average grade of 0.3g/t gold and 0.27% copper (plus 178.7mt of inferred resources at 0.24g/t gold and 0.23% copper) said “What is encouraging are the initial grades from our first holes on the margin of the system are similar to reported resource grades for other projects in the area and we have still to test the main zone.”

Conclusion: Intersecting multiple horizons of mineralisation in the first two boreholes at Ergama is most encouraging for Mariana Resources, however, with even the initial 7 hole programme still to be completed there is clearly a substantial amount of work still to be done at Ergama. At this stage, although similar to Haililaga, the grades look relatively low though we note the company’s comment that they seem to be increasing at depth towards the south. We look forward to further results as they become available and, perhaps in the longer term, to an initial resource estimate.

[darias] 14/2/2017 13:25

Why do people feel the need to state that something is in their opinion?

Unless someone is clearly quoting another, whose else would it be?

>>Buffy

To separate opinion from fact. Many post opinions as facts after all you posted,

"Time lines constantly slipping, large options to incentivise the directors (I always thought a top salary was supposed to do that), lack of shareholder focus in news reporting.

Top class assets don't always lead to top class returns for investors.

I really like the assets, and would happily re-enter, but there's a smell coming from this company and I can't identify it. Will the assets get highjacked?"

As facts but they are not facts. Time lines aren't "constantly slipping" Whether options or small or large depends on who is receiving or paying for them. "Lack of shareholder focus" is clearly opinion. And a "smell coming from the company". Well that should really be tempered by opinion as it could lead to a libel charge.

[buffythebuffoon] 14/2/2017 10:28

Why do people feel the need to state that something is in their opinion?

Unless someone is clearly quoting another, whose else would it be?

Buffy

[cwh1980] 14/2/2017 09:38

Totally agree buffy, got to sell out on the spikes.

[cpap man] 14/2/2017 08:56

You should of course add the all important AIMHO to your post above btb 'cause you might be right but then again you might be wrong!

[barrywhit] 14/2/2017 08:33

Hopefully the next drill results will show Copper grades nearer to 1% as well as higher Gold grades.....This was NEVER going to be similar to Hot Maden....

[pr0t0n] 14/2/2017 08:25

Barry, as I mentioned earlier ( Glen did also) Hilalaga is nearby.
PilotGold/Teck reported these grades before their PEA :

0.26 g/t gold and 0.23% copper over 194.0 metres, including 0.87 g/t gold and 0.69% copper over 28.5 metres in HD-108;
0.76 g/t gold and 0.60% copper over 35.2 metres in HD-108A;
0.23 g/t gold and 0.35% copper over 401.2 metres, including 0.65 g/t gold and 1.84% copper over 35.7 metres in HD-109;
0.40 g/t gold and 0.29% copper over 132.2 metres, including 0.56 g/t gold and 0.41% copper over 51.5 metres in HD-110;
0.23 g/t gold and 0.20% copper over 169.5 metres in HD-111; and,
0.64 g/t gold and 0.52% copper over 134.90 metres, including 0.78 g/t gold and 0.60% copper over 81.40 metres in HD-115.

[barrywhit] 14/2/2017 08:21

From SOLG RNS released this morning:

HIGHLIGHTS:

Ø Drill Hole 19 (CSD-16-019) returned a broad mineralised zone of 1132m grading 0.50% copper and 0.33 g/t gold from 268m depth, across an interpreted true width of approximately 500m to date (further assays to come), at the growing Alpala deposit.

Ø This long intersection includes 802m grading 0.63% copper, and 0.43 g/t gold from 572m depth, and 516m grading 0.75% copper, and 0.50 g/t gold from 838m, across true widths of approximately 360m and 230m respectively.

Ø The Hole 19 assay results reflect intersections significantly richer in bornite, (a copper rich sulphide mineral containing approximately 63% copper) than in previous drillholes, representing the southernmost and shallowest high grade mineralisation discovered at Alpala to date.

Ø Drilling focus moving from Alpala Central to Hematite Hill, towards Alpala Southeast, where strong bornite mineralisation and high temperature advanced argillic alteration are mapped at surface.

Ø Hole 20R continuing at 1342.4m.

Ø Holes 21 & 22 entering increasingly strong mineralization, and at current depths of 750.4m and 702.2m respectively.

These are normal grades for Bulk tonnage mines, so our scout holes show promise...