Manroy Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 01/6/2013 13:52

Much appreciated guys, thankfully my movement etc gets a little better with each day now and with any luck this one finger typing will be a thing of the past. I guess my unhealthy lifestyle eventually caught up with me. If you've got one think about changing it before it's to late. The days i turned down a trip to the gym i now regret.

That is an interesting concept the new generation of "fleet of foot" investors, i maybe tend to hold my core portfolio too tightly as i'm not keen on the taking of profits for me it's only a buy or sell that's why i pointed out Manroy for me atleast isn't a sell. It's been very successful for me over the years and has produced decent returns, i can only remember a couple of losses and a couple of forced delistings that i stuck with which in the end proved very fruitful, every member of my former shares club could vouch for that.

Good luck to all in whatever way they invest, my main point was to show i was still a happy holder.

Thanks again everyone.

[glasshalfull] 01/6/2013 10:50

Battlebus - I noted that you hadn't posted & put it down to hols. Like others here, I trust that you are recovering well & would like to pass on my best wishes. Puts into perspective the importance of health.

I've documented my rationale for selling initially as I thought forecasts would be downgraded & having just had a quick look at my calcs I've made a 38% return here since initial purchases in Jan 2013. I'm happy with that & if the gangway has been raised when I return to the HMS Manroy, then so be it.

I would suggest that Mr Market will not afford MAN a higher rating until they now deliver...benefit of the doubt was given following their v difficult 2012 once the orders started to flow through in early 2013 with shareprice responding accordingly. Unfortunately & most probably outwith their control, 2013 forecast figures have now been downgraded twice. The first downgrade was seen as rebalancing of forecasts and occurred simultaneous with the fresh Allenby coverage at the beginning of the year, but they've now indicated a second miss as I had anticipated on Thursday morning.

Agree with sentiments expressed over long term prognosis - as I documented - but feel that I can use my proceeds far more productively meantime & compound my initial capital and profit elsewhere.

Like many of the on this board I've been investing for a considerable amount of time and I would say that since 2009-10 we've noted that the timescales of investors holding a stock have shortened dramatically. LTBH/ ZULU approach were my strategies in the 90's and early part of 2000, but during the bear markets of 2007-08 I held firm while portfolio was decimated and fortunately with additional fresh funds in 2009 rode the recovery.

Since this time I suspect that communications have improved 10-fold with the likes of instant price data available anywhere, anytime, via smart devices & the ease with which one can buy & sell, also anywhere, anytime. Add into the mix that the likes of teenagers now have ability to short shares, trade CFDs and spreadbet & the advent of instant communication/news via social media & you've one hell of volatile mix. Look at the likes of the CUP or QPP thread to see some of the cretins that indulge.

My point is that while I still hold shares for many years - ETO & SPRP over 4 years and OMIP for just shy (all are triple baggers and more) - my strategy has changed with the times and I use the experience gained aligned with current investor mindset. Simple as that. So while some choose to stay-put or bottom drawer an investment - and there's certanly nothing wrong with that - many will attempt to tread a path between both camps and I'm sure that as cfro & ic2 having invested & posted here recently wouldn't mind me indicating that I would class them as two of the new-generation "fleet of foot" investors, and very successful they are too. Determining when to hold for the longer term & also selling out when they perceive that the story or risk/reward profile has changed.

Good luck all & wishing you a speedy recovery battlebus.

Regards,
GHF

[gleach23] 01/6/2013 10:39

Sorry to hear that battlebus and I also wish you a strong recovery. Just the other day I had wondered why I hadn't seen any posts from you in a while.

fwiw I'm still holding here.

[bigbigdave] 01/6/2013 10:34

bb2, sorry hear you've been unwell, I wish you a full and hasty recovery to full health
Rgds, bbd

[cheshire man] 01/6/2013 08:30

A full and speedy recovery wished for you battlebus !

[simon gordon] 01/6/2013 08:22

Battle,

I hope you recover well, best wishes.

[jimmy12345] 01/6/2013 07:43

Bb i also meNt to add i hope your recovering well from your stroke and wish you all the best. Regards

[battlebus2] 31/5/2013 23:57

Thanks for all your reasoned posts, i have recently suffered from a stroke and have not posted for a number of weeks but felt the need to after the tumbleweed quote from GHF which made me laugh. The new note from Allenby with the expected EPS of 7.1 instead of 8p and the unchanged forecast for 2014 makes me wonder how long the average punter is willing to stay with an investment these days. It's easy to see those who have sold by their lack of comments etc. Now everyone has their own agenda and far be it from me to tell anyone how to invest but isn't the first rule that share trading it should always be a strategy of a 3 to 5 year investment unless news etc is bad. Can anyone really say that those results are bad and that the further increase in orders will not be positive in the months and years ahead especially as we knew revenues for the whole year are weighted towards the second half. For me we have a company that has implemented the changes needed to increase performance and i give the management team credit for that, the timing of profitability has been delayed this half but the increasing scale of the business will see shareholders rewarded handsomely imv. When i bought my holding of 40k at 46p with orders of 7 million the company was undervalued now with the shares trading at 56p we have orders of 15.8 million which leaves me to consider my target of 80p is still well on track and therefore i have left my holding intact. Some of you will return as GHF has remarked though another multi-million contract may mean you pay a little more to get a holding again.

Good luck to one and all,

Harry.

[speedsgh] 31/5/2013 19:43

thanks for the feedback guys. sold my entire holding today, although sounds like i was one step behind the rest of you. had the same question marks in my head, IC2, but unlike yourself i didn't pull over yesterday so may have got a few pence less than if i had reacted a bit quicker. all the same i managed to turn a small profit from my purchase at the beginning of Jan.

will be keeping a watchful eye from the sidelines but my confidence in management is not what it was after yesterday's announcement. i shouldnt be too harsh; delays are very much par for the course in their markets (i used to work in the defence sector) but it does look like it may take a fair bit more time for the fruit to ripen on this one than initially anticipated. good luck to all that remain.

[speedsgh] 31/5/2013 19:43

double post... doh.

[interceptor2] 31/5/2013 19:21

No surprise that I also sold my holdings yesterday, but it wasn't a clear cut decision. I read the RNS release yesterday before the open before I left on a long drive back to the UK. But as I was going over the statement in my head while driving, I knew I should have really sold at the open. So I pulled into a service station and found a wifi connection to sell my shares.

Even though the following statement sounded very promising "We anticipate that fulfilment of these orders, in accordance with normal regulatory approvals, will have a positive impact on the second half of the financial year." They still depend on regulatory approvals, so they would need a very strong H2 and a good following wind to meet broker expectations imo.

So sidelines for now and will decide about another investment depending on RNS releases before the full year results.

ic2...

[cfro] 31/5/2013 18:34

"...everyone departed?"

Seems that way GHF. Very nice couple of posts from you, well done. I think the management do have a few questions to answer imo. Not at all pleased with how things have panned out here, this was not consistent with the previous RNS's from the company over the last few weeks or so.

I think even the 7.1p eps downgraded forecasts will still have to be downgraded further and possibly by quite a bit more by the year end.

[glasshalfull] 31/5/2013 18:20

Tumbleweed on the thread...everyone departed?

Well, forecasts have indeed been lowered for the current year. Per Allenby snippet:-

Forecasts lowered for FY 2013

The MoD is taking longer to call-off some of its confirmed orders and these will now fall into FY 2014. In addition, the group is still waiting for the US Department of Defence to issue First Article Acceptance on much of MUSA's novated defence contracts and because of this the group's share of the loss from this business is likely to be higher than we had originally anticipated. Again, these orders are now likely to shift into FY2104 results. As a consequence we are scaling back our EPS expectations for the current year by 11% while leaving 2014 estimates unchanged.

7.1p adj EPS now forecast for current year and 14.1p remains in place for 2014.

Reckon I'll be back at some point.

Regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 30/5/2013 18:56

Shanklin - Post 454 - I don't believe it's seasonal. The H2 weighting is simply down to the timing & execution of orders. Worthwhile looking through RNSs over the last 12 months which will indicate delays in receipt of orders and also momentum of recent order wins in early 2013, resulting in a strong order book for delivery H2 2013 & 2014.

simon gordon - Post 459 & 462 - "Great minds, fools seldom..." Springs to mind. Following my own short post to the thread this morning I spent time trawling through the statement, looking in greater detail & for evidence of execution of 2013 forecasts & delivery during H2. Like yourself I found the silence deafening.

We've both been around long enough to recognise the careful wording that precedes a "miss" on expectations & while the long term outlook appears positive in terms of order wins; diversification away from MoD; cost savings; taking business from competitors, etc, etc, I feel that they are hedging their bets for the current financial year.

Few indicators that suggest that 2013 forecasts may be scaled back which I've listed to clarify:-

* In respect of MUSA orders they use the phrase, "planned to commence during the second half of the current year..." and "financial performance in 2012/2013 has been lower than planned..." - Tells its own story.

* MUSA order book increased by £5.0m since March 2013 (flagged by all star & others)...which involves the placing of an intra-group order from Manroy UK. Don't know about the rest of you, but I'm starting to get confused on scale of the ACTUAL order book and benefit derived by Manroy when a £7.6m order they've received is partly placed via an intra-group order to 49% subsidiary?

* No mention of the "key £8.0m export order" they referred to in numerous RNS announcements during 2012/13. (NOTE : I've previously emailed the FD for clarification and failed to receive a response despite repeated attempts)

* Felt statement such as the one below were telling,

"Regulation of licences for the export of weapons continues to be a complicated and controlling item in the delivery of revenue. This is actively managed by the Executive Directors to ensure that the financial effect of changing requirements, regulations and timeframes are minimised where they are within the Group's control BUT THEIR TIMING DOES HAVE A DELAYING FACTOR ON THE TIMING OF SOME OF OUR REVENUE INTO SUBSEQUENT PERIODS." (My CAPS)

and

"We anticipate that fulfilment of these orders, IN ACCORDANCE WITH NORMAL REGULATORY APPROVALS, will have a positive impact on the second half of the financial year. (My CAPS)

...my point is that there are a number of caveats that litter the results commentary.

So while I continue to believe that the company has considerable upside, I also believe that the timeframe has lengthened in them realising this & consider there is risk to the downside in the shorterm. Will the market attribute a higher rating until they release a trading update in Sept or Oct?

I don't think it will and regretfully (I sound like Alan Sugar) took profits today with a view to buying back once the full year outrun is known. It should be noted that if management had engaged with me either in personal dialogue or responding to email queries then I'm certain my understanding of the company and challenges would be far greater & I may well have bottom-drawered the investment.

Regards,
GHF

[cfro] 30/5/2013 12:33

I think you might have a good point Simon Gordon. With a loss per share of 0.2p but with revenues some 21% higher, if they cant turn a profit on that then it might be that they will struggle to achieve 8p eps for the full year.

Further out things look more positive.

[temelco] 30/5/2013 11:21

No they are saying ( unless I read it wrongly) that they will deliver £14m of orders in the second half. The AMERICAN increase in orders is $7.5million since March ( as announced TODAY)

[allstar_07] 30/5/2013 09:34

Temelco-does it day anywhere that it is additional orders? Why does it only get added after the approvals from the UK for the contacts announced in March. Great if it is extra orders but surely that's worth an extra rns...

[temelco] 30/5/2013 08:33

Even 30% of £14m os more than £4m FY

[simon gordon] 30/5/2013 08:13

The spin is focused on the "long term" not a word about FY expectations:

Conclusion

As a result of the implementation of our business development plan over the last two years, Manroy is gaining momentum with record order books, achievements of cost savings, a larger product range and a more diversified customer base. The Board considers the Group is in a good position to achieve its long term strategic objectives.

[deanowls1] 30/5/2013 08:11

What did it say in between the lines?

[simon gordon] 30/5/2013 08:11

MUSA

The Group's 49% owned associated company, MUSA, had an order book of US$13.2 million (£8.7 million) at the end of March 2013 and operates in what continues to be the largest defence market in the world. Manufacture and delivery is planned to commence during the second half of this current year and throughout the next financial year, although it's financial performance in 2012/2013 has been lower than planned due to certain operational restrictions.

[simon gordon] 30/5/2013 08:05

I thought the statement read cagey, no indication if they are on track to meet FY expectations. I sense they'll struggle to make the FY, just a hunch from reading between the lines. I could be completely wrong.

[temelco] 30/5/2013 08:01

No that's new US orders

[cfro] 30/5/2013 07:59

V Good update. GHF quite rightly points out that the H2 weighting was well flagged.

So more than happy with the way things are going.