Maelor Share Discussion Threads

[waxman3] 22/4/2008 11:11

Still more dillution at give away prices, at a time when consolidation would have been more appropriate!

[waxman3] 22/4/2008 11:05

What a larf!

[gogoneko] 22/4/2008 09:13

There's an important adjective missing from yesterdays announcement:

"We are very pleased to have completed this significant fundraising, which was
over subscribed, underpriced, and took place in turbulent markets."

Still waiting to see if: 1) The lot at Liontrust got their greasy hands on some stock to throw away for a quick profit; and 2) Whether anybody is going to bother trying to give a buy recommendation.

[waxman3] 21/4/2008 14:04

Should prove interesting tomorrow, and I think by the end of the week we will see a lesson in how to devalue your wealth.

[redrenault2] 14/4/2008 16:33

Remember .. edison is PAID FOR RESEARCH !!!!! so very unlikely to be negative

[pheasant1] 14/4/2008 08:59

I am astounded at the lack of information provided by MLR on its latest acquisition. However, the directors did find time to talk to Edison Research, who kindly provide a research note here:



Just put in the company search box. Registration is required (though free), and the note can then be downloaded as a PDF. The usual copyright conditions apply.

Once you have the note, the company's general reticence to discuss the deal becomes a little clearer; gross revenues for SEPI were just a tad under £2m - almost all from Haemopressin, plus some coppers from Cortirel.

The note seems well written, and it finds reasonable upside from Haemopressin sales as new regulatory approvals come through (in terms of both extended indications and additional territories).

In the short term, Edison forecasts an EBITDA for year ending March 2008 of £1.63m. As the year end date has just passed, it seems safe to assume that this is spot on.

The mid and long-term projections seem to be fairly conservative, with a number of possible revenue sources being excluded for prudence' sake - on this basis, EBITDA for FY 2010 is £4.9m.

My conclusion is that the long-term impact of this acquisition is potentially positive (as you might hope when the company is forking out £14.25m), but the short term gain is negligible.

The bad news is that MLR has paid more than 7 times REVENUE for SEPI (and almost 16 times EBITDA), which is pretty outlandish for nothing more than a royalty stream (SEPI has no personnel, no sales people, no marketing, no nothing).

I reckon that two or three times sales AT MOST would have been in keeping with recent deals, with a further premium always possible for a decent patent position (distinctly lacking here), or for specific know-how (ditto).

Better management, better market share and position, better patents and so on all add up to higher value when buying a company. MLR gets none of these.

This deal seems to underscore the deal-making prowess of Apax rather than astute management at MLR.

And as usual, the PI pays.

[waxman3] 13/4/2008 00:13

What if indeed!

[gogoneko] 12/4/2008 16:12

All I see is an absence of argument for the "huge premium" claim based on any fact, i.e. nobody has disputed that the 10x pro forma EBITDA payment is too much - which is what MLR have used for their valuation. Simply putting forward a bunch of assumptive "what if" cases relating to the competitor suddenly deciding to squeeze MLR out of certain markets should be reflected in a risk factor in the share price, not the amount MLR should have paid.

More "what if"s: What if Ferring decides that the market is too small to defend or has bigger fish to fry? What if regulatory approval for Haemopressin isn't given? Why does the £2m milestone payment only relate to "certain products" approval in UK, France and Italy only? Was that year's EBITDA an anomaly?, etc, etc.

We're only going to know over time whether the amount paid was too much or not but I think the company is turning its back on PIs so with that attitude I'm never going to hold long-term. As quite a few others are questioning director motives the shares could drop as investors lose confidence/interest even though the company currently has a profitable and growing business even though it'll still be settling payments 4-5 years hence. The danger has always been though that the company would overpay on expansion and at the first sign of things not going to plan then the shares will be hit - so far, from a performance perspective, the company have delivered.

[waxman3] 12/4/2008 12:47

No one louder than me, but it ain't going to happen as I CANT SING.


Read this again please and try to digest what is being said then your over the pound a share figure my be plausible in about 10 years.

For Gawd's sake get wise and analys this latest scam and the products

MLR has paid a huge premium for SEPI, SEPI competes with Ferring who have an almost identical product to Terlipressin under differnt branding and much larger market share. Ferring could swamp MLR or IS PHARMA plc, as it proposes name change to.

[red ninja] 12/4/2008 12:33

Well I guess in business you use you're friends.

However, at the end of the day Maelor has always said
it is set on expansion and to do that it has to raise
funds and a placement is probably the cheapest way to
do it especially for a small company...

We could argue about the price, but I've only bought
in the 12-13 range so I'm not feeling too ripped off.

This is probably a good time to aquire as target prices
are hopefully depressed due to general market sentiment.

I've bought more on the basis that this management looks
set to deliver growth. Ultimately if they do, everybody
will be singing the boards praises....

[waxman3] 11/4/2008 21:17

gogoneko - 31 Mar'08 - 14:38 - 1660 of 1669
I'm not surprised that the share price isn't sinking that much as the company is increasingly looking in better shape with the addition of more profitable revenue streams and expanded markets.

For Gawd's sake get wise and analys this latest scam and the products

MLR has paid a huge premium for SEPI, SEPI competes with Ferring who have an almost identical product to Terlipressin under differnt branding and much larger market share. Ferring could swamp MLR or IS PHARMA plc, as it proposes name change to.

So we have now 7 shares of 10p in Maelor consolidated into 1 new share of 70p

I am wagering now, revising my estimate down, that it will settle around 50p

Also take a look at this

Talk about keeping it in th circle.

Look as if the priavte shareholder has been shafted again.

But then I did tell you all to sell some time back when I got wind of these things.

And of course took your sh(t again over exposing dog shares.

Tim may have been great as an employee of ELAN, but the hot seat is different and too date he has clearly demdisableded that its not an easy ride at the top.!

[redrenault2] 11/4/2008 09:20

totallt agree .. with all its tics and fleas ....eh Tim !!

[waxman3] 10/4/2008 16:25

A dog is still a dog no matter how it wags its tail.

[dealit] 04/4/2008 17:24

Here's hoping they don't drift back to pre-consolidation price as can happen.

[burrmj] 03/4/2008 16:25

mlr.s partner PLE seems to raise money in a better way for its shareholders although the shares have dropped over the last year like hell I have bought from £1 down

[gogoneko] 02/4/2008 12:05

I think you'll find that the only one to pay more than 10p for stock was Tim Wright. Perhaps this time they've exceeded themselves in this latest selective give-away and helped themselves to more at 11p, rather than do the decent thing and pay market price.

Note: Latest Edison research (Mar '08 - ) gives a post-consolidation eps of 14.2 for FY 2010, so on a p.e. of 15 that's a share price of about £2.13 in three years time compared to today's 91p equiv.

[redrenault2] 02/4/2008 10:43

would be nice if the magmnt bought some more stock with their chunky salaries !!! the last buyer wass tim wright - not exactly confidence boosting

[soldi] 02/4/2008 08:24

shuisky - don't worry. Don't sell - just wait until the share price drops back to below the placing price and you'll be able to average down to your heart's content.

[shuisky] 01/4/2008 16:47

steeplejack, well said and thanks for keeping a sense of perspective on this board. This is a very small company and a placing is the cheapest ands most probable way of raising funds. Obviously, we would all prefered to have picked some before this placing, an it is extremely frustrating to see institutions merrily picking up stock at a discount and diluting our shareholders, however you have to take the rough with the smooth with smallcaps. This stock is hardlyu overvalued and the deal makes strategic sense. I'm confident they will generate the synergies to be able to more than justify this placing. As to thosae who are 'selling to buy back cheaper', you maybe right, you maybe wrong, but I suspect the only poerson benefitting will be your broker and the market markers! Market timing with a micro-cap is a mugs game.

[steeplejack] 31/3/2008 15:23

The company IS looking in better shape.It's making sensible corporate moves in areas it understands.The only criticism is the generous discount at which recent placings have been undertaken.The shares will mark time until the benefits of recent acquisitions can be evaluated.Having a share consolidation is little more than a book keeping exercise to utilise the share premium acoount,it means nothing.As put here earlier ,i reckon ultimately this company will attract a trade buyer,couple of years out.

[gogoneko] 31/3/2008 14:38

I'm not surprised that the share price isn't sinking that much as the company is increasingly looking in better shape with the addition of more profitable revenue streams and expanded markets. The trouble is that I expect quite a few don't appreciate that a minority of players are increasingly taking the majority of the riches. The company in my opinion is moving forwards as a business but leaving private investors behind. I really am eager to see how those who've given Maelor recommendations in the press cover the issue of dilution and the closed community for cheap shares issues - I expect that they'll avoid those areas, blame the lack of increase in share price on the credit crunch, and suggest "keep buying"!

[pheasant1] 31/3/2008 14:11

Gogoneko, I am a shareholder, and I don't take it kindly when the company values my shares at 11 pence (for its own purposes) when the market is currently happy to pay 13.2.

I was anticipating a re-rating this year to 20 - 25 pence on FY results; for this arithmetic to hold good, the share price for the enlarged group will have to hit £1.40 - £1.75; hardly likely when a value of 77 pence has just been set by insiders.

Like you, I would like to know who benefits from this unexpected largesse.

One curious thing is today's SP, which seems to have held up against all logic.

Does the market view this cosy expansion plan as a good thing ? Am I missing something in all this ?

[gogoneko] 31/3/2008 13:17

As I'm not a shareholder I've no idea who's taking up this latest tranche of cheap handouts. If the same names appear on the list as it did for Acorus then it'll be seen as an exclusive members club arrangement. Can anyone post the names of those who've extended their generosity to paying just 11p?

I'm wondering if they may be taking on more debt in a move to paying dividends in the forthcoming years so that the exclusive members club get a bigger cut of the profits as the PIs get their holdings gradually diluted.