Madagascar Oil Share Discussion Threads

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 23:15

Comedy, born yesterday on ADFN I may be, but I've been following MOIL for several years and only decided to contribute to this BB when the alarming 18 February RNS was issued. I'm a supporter of the project but the company appears to have been poorly managed and is now in a very tight spot.

I have no idea exactly what will happen next or in the longer term, my contribution is only intended to provide a factual balance to some of the claims on the BB (such as "sell the oil in stock to provide working capital" and the misleading 1.7 bn barrels figure) and to point out what COULD happen.

If you don't appreciate my views, please ignore them. If you have alternative views, please continue to share them.

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 22:46

Control1

You are quite right. From the RNS: "Relevant Lenders who have insisted on the calling of this Special General Meeting, as a condition to any financing, currently represent approximately 60.5% of the existing common shares in the Company."

What that means is that the two largest shareholders, Outrider and Benchmark, are the Relevant Lenders in question, since they hold 60.5%.

It is true that SEP and Dejoria combined (30% between them) would be able to defeat a delisting vote. But what next? Any funds that they provided to avoid insolvency would have to be applied first to repayment of the debt, so SEP and Dejoria would have to repay around $10m to Outrider and Benchmark before the company would get any funds from them. This doesn't sound likely to me, so I still feel that a delisting is the most likely outcome.

As I said, my previous remarks were speculative and I'm not trying to scare PIs out, but what is the interesting picture relating to SEP?

[control1] 19/2/2016 21:32

rapide35

Fact 5 (taken from the Alliance News write up from yesterday)

"That meeting is likely to lead to the proposal to delist from AIM being approved. Over 75% of shareholders would need to vote in favour of the proposal, but the lenders backing the proposal hold a combined 60.5% stake in the company, meaning they would need only a fraction of support from other shareholders to get the company off AIM."

Note:- "the lenders backing the proposal hold a combined 60.5% stake"

Now I am quite willing to accept that there is plenty of lazy journalism out there but I would tend to believe a premium subscription service over you.

So, my original comment about scaring PI's out remains valid.


I have been doing some research this evening and joining up the dots and an interesting picture is developing, especially relating to SEP African Ventures Ltd...

[comedy] 19/2/2016 21:14

Lol...rapids nice to see you were born yesterday just to supply us info on delist???
Funny we don't even know what is going to happen in the next minute and yet you seem to know what will happen in the longer future???

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 18:53

In the present circumstances, it is highly likely that MOIL will delist. Even if MOIL could sell its oil in stock, the sales proceeds must be used to pay down the debt and not for working capital.

The four controlling shareholders hold 90.5% of the equity and can therefore pass a Special Resolution (75% vote).

Those considering staying in the stock long-term might want to consider the following possible scenario:

-MOIL is delisted.
-An SGM is called and a Special Resolution to add Drag-Along rights to the Articles is passed.
-A new company set up and funded by the controlling shareholders makes an offer for the company at 1p/share (or lower), which will get at least 90.5% acceptance.
-The Drag Along rights are used to compel any non-accepting shareholders to take the offer.
-The controlling shareholders become the sole owners of MOIL's assets.

The above is purely speculative of course. DYOR.

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 18:50

The major shareholders are effectively forcing a delist in return for a small amount of working capital, since no other finance is available. The "or else" is insolvency - in which event the four controlling shareholders would become the sole owners of MOIL's assets, which are the security for the debt, and the private shareholders would get nothing.

[saturn5] 19/2/2016 18:38

Could major shareholders try to force a delist or else

What is the option for us?

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 16:40

A company usually has to give around 14 days notice of an SGM.

[sharetrader3006] 19/2/2016 14:54

Guys, how soon do we reckon a meeting will be called to delist?

[comedy] 19/2/2016 14:14

catch up next week...today and weekend the vultures will be on high posting alert to get pis out...

[comedy] 19/2/2016 14:14

lol...pmsl we seem to have been descended with guys who registered yesterday...and want us to sell for our benefit...just spent 2 hours playing "tennis" with landlord on my lease/rent...and eventually when he realised i didnt care who said he should reasonably get £x amount per year...i said ask him for it???tell you what ask him for £10...see if he gives you it....same here everyone has an opinion...ive put 300k plus of shares on my opinion...we will either do or die...or more likely somewhere in the middle???

couldnt buy £100 this morning ...could sell 180k...why is that????

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 13:13

Fact 3:
"The Tsimiroro Block licence area includes the Amboloando heavy oil reservoir which holds contingent original oil in place of approximately 1.7 billion barrels."

[Quote from the MOIL 2014 Annual Report published in June 2015]

Note the words "oil in place". Only 20-50% of this may be recoverable by thermal methods.

Fact 4:
"As at 28 February 2015, cumulative oil production had reached 173,351 barrels... [and] 90,780 barrels of crude oil available for sales were accumulated in the storage tanks at the SFP as at the same date."

[Quote from the MOIL Development Update RNS of 3 March 2015]

So only around half of the production is available for sales, the other half has presumably been used as fuel for steam generation or electricity generation in the field.

In terms of potential sales oil from Tsimiroro, this means that only 10-25% of the oil in place is likely to be available, or 170 to 425 million barrels, which will become clear to any potential strategic partner as its due diligence proceeds. The headline figure of 1.7 billion barrels is a little misleading.

[control1] 19/2/2016 12:28

I am not much of a user of Twitter so we need a volunteer with a big following (and preferably a few celebs) to post.I will happily write the article (already mentally composed) for publication but I am working now so will write hardcopy on the weekend.Any volunteers out there...?

[falia] 19/2/2016 11:58

GET YOUR MONEY BACK IN TRIN

[bullet ant] 19/2/2016 11:56

Dude , so you are trading in chunks of 100 squids now? I remember you used to trade in chunks £100K.


Was it in QPP? you were buying in blocks of 100K a go?


comedy 19 Feb'16 - 10:10 - 2334 of 2337 0 0

cant buy even £100...sell 181k in a oner???

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 11:54

control1: "I think that the major shareholders are the ones to attack as they do not quite hold enough shares to reach the auto delist percentage

This is IMO, the sole reason for the issue of the threat, to scare PI's into selling so that they can hoover up enough shares to take them to the magic 75% figure."

Fact 1: It is not necessary to reach 75% of the equity to carry an SGM vote, the threshold is 75% of the shares voted at the SGM.

Fact 2: Four shareholders between them hold 90.5% of the equity (and 100% of the outstanding loan). They control the outcome of the SGM vote to delist. See significant shareholders list on MOIL web site.

[saturn5] 19/2/2016 10:50

We need bad press
bad twitter ASAP

If this is such a good company then problems should be sorted before the
vultures take over

[comedy] 19/2/2016 10:10

cant buy even £100...sell 181k in a oner???

[comedy] 19/2/2016 10:07

and all the posters have disappeared

[comedy] 19/2/2016 09:57

pmsl...to true holders click on the posters who are knocking us...notice rapide has just woken up yesterday and decided the one thing in life he needs to do is register with advfn and a must do post on MOIL...pmsl okey dokey well done that lad...

[comedy] 19/2/2016 09:30

lol because esmerelda who knows if it will delist???who knows if it will fall to 0.1p???all these figures being bandied about to scare pi's to sell their shares so as control1 says they can hoove them up to get the no. they need for their vote...

personally dont see 0.1p as that would value us at £650k m/cap????pmsl ok...

i took 6mill plus in irg as dont see it worth m/cap £300k...and certainly can see this at correct value...so will just hold...the number of shares traded yesterday 5mill...today will it be more or even less???this is going to be a good game of chess...

[rapide35] 19/2/2016 09:04

Did no one notice the file name of the RNS on MOIL's website? It is "Cleansing-RNS-18-Feb-2016-FINAL". A "Cleansing RNS" is something your NOMAD makes you issue when the BOD has price-sensitive information that the public shareholders are unaware of. It is intended to protect the BOD from some of the accusations being made on this site.

[esmerelda] 19/2/2016 08:55

Well if you insist in buying shares in this company why don't you wait until the week they are due to delist to buy as that is likely to be when the price is at its lowest?