Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 17/11/2015 12:47

Safety in numbers? - Let's hope so.

To be honest, given the background of ever-growing internet shopping activity, I don't see much scope for things to go wrong here.

[cellars] 17/11/2015 12:34

Thanks for your post #61.

FWIW my numbers and valuation are very much in line with yours.

Safety in numbers??

[effortless cool] 17/11/2015 11:27

I can't make the header take any updates today for some reason, but I have updated my projections and all looks good - happy holder.

Here's what will go in the top, when ADVFN decides to let me:

=====================
Update 17 November 2015
=====================

I have updated my projections to reflect the 2015 H1 results published on 27 August and the IMS published on 17 November.

For 2015, I forecast revenue of £167.2m, PBT of £7.0m and EPS of 4.58p. Projected profit has fallen since my previous forecast due to higher than expected administrative expenses related to acquisitions.

I have now extended my model through 2016, and base my valuation off the result for that year. For 2016, I have revenue of £174.6m, PBT of £8.5m and EPS of 5.47p. The main uncertainty is where administrative costs bottom out absent acquisitions, and I believe I have used a prudent basis here.

My valuation, using an adjusted PE ratio of 13, is 58.8p.

[hastings] 17/11/2015 09:43

Very positive Arden note this am, the shares trading on just 9x next years earnings at the current 50p.Still discounted to the sector though and with some major customer wins achieved along with increasing internet related sales, looks well placed for continued growth.

[illiswilgig] 17/11/2015 08:44

Yes, very good update - the only broker forecast on Digital look is for +19 eps growth this year. Makes MACF good value and I will be looking to top up on any weakness in the next few weeks,

cheers

[wet your knot] 17/11/2015 07:16

All in line with expectations:"The net effect of these factors is that Macfarlane Group's profit before tax for 2015 to date continues to be well above the corresponding period in 2014 and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of 2015".

[wet your knot] 13/11/2015 18:29

MACF technology used in one of the winners are recent awards (supplied to M&S): hxxp://www.packagingnews.co.uk/news/awards-news/uk-packaging-awards-2015/flexible-plastic-pack-of-the-year-winner-uk-packaging-awards-2015-12-11-2015

[vaneric] 13/11/2015 10:57

Gamblers wyk, they'll be out again five minutes after the announcement if it doesn't look too good.

[wet your knot] 13/11/2015 10:37

Seems to be a lot of buys going through ahead of next weeks update.

[wet your knot] 11/11/2015 20:06

"Early next week" was the wording.

[exel] 11/11/2015 19:36

wyk - do you have a date for that IMS?

[wet your knot] 11/11/2015 17:52

IMS due early next week, hopefully get back on track with some positive news.

[exel] 21/10/2015 14:37

hastings - we meet again, hope you are well!

[shauney2] 07/10/2015 15:04

Nice slow bounce off the 46p support.Ex divi tomorrow for half a p.

[wet your knot] 02/10/2015 13:01

Knock-on effect from SMDS?

[hastings] 12/9/2015 15:58

Cheers limit up, thanks for the compliment !
Very pleasing run of late and prospects aligned to the UK economy should provide potential for upgrades ahead.

[limit up] 12/9/2015 11:01

hastings.
great to see the share price above 50p,well done on your write up on the co as well.
regds

[effortless cool] 01/9/2015 15:58

hastings,

Nice write up - thanks for the link.

(But "complementary", rather than "complimentary")

[hastings] 01/9/2015 15:25

May be of further interest to others holding.

hxxp://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business/private-punter

[j777j] 31/8/2015 18:24

Effortless Cool is also Expletive deleted.He hs been exposed as using multiple avatars with intent to deceive.

Be very wary of him

[effortless cool] 28/8/2015 13:19

I thought we might have reached an all-time high, only to find that the price exceeded 260p in 1996.

Can't even claim to be the highest this century - have to settle for highest since 2002.

[limit up] 27/8/2015 12:08

all on track,with growth going fwd,and dvd increase ,which is important,and i feel for once a more upbeat statement,all looking okay,well done to the mgmt for turning the co around,through the bad times..ie adding to the co..
regds

[hastings] 27/8/2015 08:49

Yep agreed. nice note from Arden this morning too, with EPS of 4.9p next year.