||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1776 to 1800 of 1800 messages
|Hello Nakedsteve. Your message prompted me to look again at the pension liability as I had not made a note when reviewing the final results.
It's a complicated area. A lot of pensions are looking similar to MACF at the moment.
At MACF the defined benefit schemes were closed to new entrants in 2002. Active members had their salaries frozen in 2010 (an interesting route to go down rather than closing the scheme to new payments) so the scheme is effectively frozen and new funding is limited and may well be exceeded by the rate at which older pensions in payments are ceasing already.
But that doesn't make a lot of difference to the current year figures the big changes are caused by the accounting standard IAS19 which attempts to update the liabilities at the year end in between triennial actuaries valuations - the next of which is due in May 17 - so its the results of that which I shall be most interested in.
Unfortunately IAS19 doesn't live in the real world (apparently) and was never designed to be realistic in such prolonged almost zero interest rates. Supposedly it models the ability of the funds to generate cash to pay future liabilities through changes in the discount rate based upon all of the assets being 100% in gilts. Which would be a really silly thing for any pension fund to do right now with gilts being so overvalued?
MACF trustees have moved their assets and are 0% in gilts now - so there must be quite a mismatch between the funds ability to pay its cash demands and the IAS19 modelled ability based upon the wrong allocation of funds and the bond interest rate at the point of measurement?
The ballooning deficits caused by the IAS19 discount rate assumptions can disappear as quickly as they arrived - though I am not saying they should be ignored - and at current interest rates are not a reliable guide to the mismatch between a pension fund assets ability to pay and the future liabilities in my view.
that makes me a ilttle more relaxed where a company has taken firm action to limit future growth in pension fund liabilities, closed the fund to new entrants and preferably fresh accruals(not the case here- though they have frozen the salaries at which pensions are accruing) and the company is otherwise growing strongly.
|hi effortless, what are your thoughts on the pension deficit? i really like this company but sold last year as i really worry about the pension issue. there is a lot to like, especially as the rise of internet shopping really helps packaging companies etc....|
|Took my own advice in the header and added another £20k worth just now.|
|Thank you EC that's a very useful update.
I've added a few more whilst it was at around 60p upping my holding to just over 71k shares.
The management team have done a great job in the last few years so I will continue to back them.
|Header updated to reflect full year results. I still rate MACF a strong buy.|
|results are out.....|
|I think that will be very much dependent on the tone of the outlook statement.|
|Looking at the long term chart shows a high peak at Feb 2016 and approaching the same now, do you think it's going to set a new high this time?|
|Header cut to a more manageable size by shifting historical forecast updates to post #1. Also link to broker forecasts fixed.
2016 results on Thursday. Broker forecasts are more optimistic than mine: Revenue £181m, pre-tax profit £7.8m. Hopefully, they are correct.|
|Very very nice.|
|Cause they is all buying today.|
|Why so many trades yesterday then none today??|
|Its moving nicely now.|
|No worries here.
|No worries here.
|Header updated to reflect 22 November trading statement. Still a STRONG BUY. Note that my forecasts are on the conservative side versus broker consensus.|
|AU - means that it went into auction.|
|What does AU mean Trader2? Just noticed the 550,000 shares buy. I think this is a company to buy and hold on to for a period of years; it has to he one of the companies that will do very well post-Brexit vote, especially with the current exchange rates!|
|Big boys buy on the trades list after the mid-session AU.|
|Great update, I think this company is very much under the radar at present and will flourish as a result of Brexit and the booming online shopping sector combined with increasing population.|
|Yes, happy with that update.|
|A very encouraging update. I have added another 23,000 shares to my holding this morning.|
|That is really helpful, thank you.|
|A fair question, b3.
I start with my modelled profit figure for the 6-18 month period (£6.601m). I then:
- normalise for corporation tax (-£0.029m);
- add back amortisation of intangible assets (+£1.001m);
- add back pension fund deficit repayments (+£2.956m); and
- add back finance costs (+£1.031m).
This produces an adjusted profit figure of £11.559m. Applying a PE ratio of 12 to this gives a valuation of 100.9p per share (on a diluted basis).
I then adjust this per share valuation for the following, as at the 18 month point:
- excess cash over a £1m minimum requirement (+4.1p);
- closure of the pension deficit (-6.5p);
- repayment of bank loans (-12.1p);
- repayment of finance leases (-0.6p);
- deferred tax (+0.9p);
- cash from exercise of options (0.0p); and
- future payments for acquisitions (-0.8p).
This gives a final value of 85.9p per share.|
|Just looking at this for the first time and agree it looks a solid company.
EC - thanks for all your analysis, very useful, though I can't see how you go from an EPS of 4.84p and PE of 12 to a valuation of 85.9p. Would you be able to elaborate please?