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Real-Time news about Luminar Grp (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|bahrain2: Looks to me like the banks / major shareholders have asked LMR management to test the waters and see what price could be got for the estate - the answer is currently - not a lot. So the banks and major institutions are now getting involved in a debt for equity swap. Obviously this dilutes shareholders, but if say only £20m of debt is left over after say a 80% dilution, then existing shareholders will start to benefit as the less indebted company continues to improve LFLs, which have been getting closer to zero throughout the year. October - December could at this rate be positive, so I reckon the banks will now have no option but to extend the banking facility further into New YEar whilst the swap is arranged. They are going to set the stock at an attractive enough price so that they can recoup some of their losses. Yes, current shareholders will be diluted, but not perhaps proportionately to the current share price which values the stock as definitely going bust. Yet administration is not the option currently, and the debt for equity deal looks like it is pretty clearly on the table now. The question is whether or not it is worth buying stock at the current prices of 1p? I think the dilution would not have made ordianry shareholders stock dilute to 1p so we are oversold which is why no doubt so many have bought today.|
|bahrain2: Time for rally to begin
May 2011 results should at last demonstrate that LMR is beginning to successfully turn things around. Like for like sales should be in low negative figures, trending towards positive levels. Current liabilities will be greatly improved as a result of the new banking facility. Last year, this was shown in the accounts as £140m, this year should be £99m maximum, and given that net debt as at October 2010 was £85m, there should be a material improvement in liabilities in May. There should also be far less writedowns. The main asset writedowns arose last year - this was why the share price collapsed, however, this could be about to start reversing sharply.
As I understand it, LMR is still trading profitable, and the banking facility is now also being improved. I think these results could mark the turning point but also lead to a takeover if the price does not start moving up a bit soon.|
|babysitter: significantly bank warrants are priced at 25p. so the banks are confident share price will exceed 25p in due course.|
|1nv35tor: from what i beleive the company seems to be doing well with there debt and slowly paying it off.
that correct .
also i was thinking, not sure if you read few post back. I was thinking during xmas and new year etc are the busy times of the year, so wouldnt you expect the share price to reflect this|
|she-ra: 1nv35tor - I dont fully agree with baldeagle5 about a takeover especially JDW but the other part of me sees that in some ways a pub operator would be spreading their risks if they bought LMR.
Now that Luminar seems to have been given the support of their banks predators who were looking at LMR in the hope of them being in dire straits and with the idea of doing a deal in administration may feel compelled to act fast before LMR's share price does a major bounce back.|
No one is denying LMR are in a difficult situation. Everyone knows that, That's why the company is only valued at £15M or so. And yes, they are fire-fighting. But at least they are doing so moderately successfully, considering the situation. My point is that the news is better than I expected. There were those who fully expected a failure of the covenants tests and this hasn't happened, yet. Sure there are huge difficulties ahead but the rise in the share price recently is probably justified on today's news.|
|bobsidian: And doubtless with a perception of a forestalling of a day of reckoning there may indeed be a positive reaction in the share price.
But being reliant on the disposal of property to ensure compliance with the terms of the banking facilities is hardly sustainable. The need for an additional capital raising exercise will probably become compelling in the months ahead to align the core business of LMR with its "new normal" trading experience.|
Referencing your post of 226
Good judgement call.
Once LMR descended into penny share status it entered the realms of "shot to nothing". Interesting to see such stockmarket specialists at work as they try to judge the dead cat bounce and distort the fundamental story to justify the technical move in the share price.
Volume is miniscule and that alone makes the move suspect. Certainly for the brave at these levels.
The art of judging a bottom in a share price move is not an easy one. Witness the difficulties experienced by speculators in shares such as FDL, 888, RPT, UKC or HMV. The trick seems to centre on being able to distinguish between the recovery play and the doomed - the former allows for buy and hold, the latter requires expeditious exit to realise short term gain whilst it is still there.|
|bobsidian: And that is appreciated.
I was just providing some current context to tax recovery. This liability has existed for some time and there is no reason to suggest that this could be a reason for the inexorable decline in the LMR share price.
LMR did raise substantial funds and have retained these for use. Their own debt profile and its maturity is a different question.
If the tax position is approaching resolution whilst debt maturity is increasingly becoming an issue, then the reaction by the share price of LMR would be understandable.
But as always any private investor would be the last to know about prevailing circumstances.|
|bobsidian: And in spite of the preliminary results being of the "kitchen sink" variety, indications of the scale of the continued deterioration in trading beyond the date to which they have been prepared has certainly sunk the share price of LMR.
What a nightmare for LMR to be trying to trade when their core custom is experiencing the worst rate of unemployment seen in a generation.
Despite best efforts, its days look numbered as directors are perhaps forced to address the problem of continuing to trade whilst being considered technically insolvent. There may be the appearance of worth in the balance sheet, but that could quickly disintegrate in a disorderly winding up. The end, if and when it comes, may be pretty rapid as all manner of covenants are eventually breached and legal clauses triggered.
And yet interestingly a director has the courage - or maybe bravado - to buy into the face of the most recent share price tumble. Is he buying in belief or hope ?
Luminar Group share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange