Luminar Group Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 27/9/2011 23:20

I didn't mean 'club managers', lp, I meant the executive management at corporate level. The problem was that their 'core market' (after-hours drinkers) deserted them once pub licensing hours were relaxed and the clubs don't really lend themselves to alternative uses.

[lucky punter] 27/9/2011 19:28

I think someone is in denial.

jeffian the club managers had no control over pricing, themes and acts. The managers have been saying it for a long time, why run every club as if it is in Milton Keynes. The Managers were employed but were not able to make decisions.

[adam] 27/9/2011 18:07

i would not think it means debt/equity swap, but rather a refinancing of newCo with only the good clubs being brought across to newCo. i.e a pre-pack admin.

[bahrain2] 27/9/2011 17:45

Looks to me like the banks / major shareholders have asked LMR management to test the waters and see what price could be got for the estate - the answer is currently - not a lot. So the banks and major institutions are now getting involved in a debt for equity swap. Obviously this dilutes shareholders, but if say only £20m of debt is left over after say a 80% dilution, then existing shareholders will start to benefit as the less indebted company continues to improve LFLs, which have been getting closer to zero throughout the year. October - December could at this rate be positive, so I reckon the banks will now have no option but to extend the banking facility further into New YEar whilst the swap is arranged. They are going to set the stock at an attractive enough price so that they can recoup some of their losses. Yes, current shareholders will be diluted, but not perhaps proportionately to the current share price which values the stock as definitely going bust. Yet administration is not the option currently, and the debt for equity deal looks like it is pretty clearly on the table now. The question is whether or not it is worth buying stock at the current prices of 1p? I think the dilution would not have made ordianry shareholders stock dilute to 1p so we are oversold which is why no doubt so many have bought today.

[jeffian] 27/9/2011 17:26

Bit hard to blame management. Their market was simply taken away from them (see post 747) and they have been 'managing' the decline ever since. It's very hard to manage a situation where your headline revenues are falling away constantly - and at quite a high rate - because any cost-cutting measures you introduce are always 'behind the curve'.

[hotfinance14] 27/9/2011 15:19

To summarise....they have put the business up for sale and the bids so far will not give shareholders any value. These bids must be very low.

[lucky punter] 27/9/2011 14:59

Not just preservation of senior management jobs, preservation of thousands of jobs around the UK. I doubt the management will waste any time crying over the shareholders or reflecting on all the mistakes they have made. Very poor performance all round but not unexpected.

[hotfinance14] 27/9/2011 14:15

Down 50% in one day.RIP LMR.

[bobsidian] 27/9/2011 14:02

Shameful.

Another stockmarket instance where job preservation of senior management takes priority over any attempt at preservation of shareholder value.

[lucky punter] 27/9/2011 13:24

Game over for shareholders, the business will be sold away from under holders at zero value.

[hotfinance14] 25/9/2011 09:09

If you speak to 18-24yr old's the majority cant afford to go to clubs.game over for Luminar.

[jeffian] 23/9/2011 17:03

bahrain2,
You seem to be in denial. The fact that the company is being kept alive at all is purely to enable the banks to extract as much cash as possible before the inevitable. There is unlikely to be any equity value left for shareholders.

[bahrain2] 23/9/2011 15:49

But just because they are closing down clubs does not mean the price should necessarily drop? Afterall, these might be being sold? Closure might mean less staff costs on an unprofitable venue - therefore closure means improving the bottom line.

I am told both the Freshers events and the Jongleurs events have gone well so far in September so the cash is presumably rolling in.

I wonder if the market is now pricing this stock on anticipation of it going into administration and not on the basis that it may have enough life left in to survive?

Today and yesterday's falls were in response to the sharp FTSE falls on other stocks and shareholders clearly needing to liquidate to raise cash, not because any news has actually been put out.

[hotfinance14] 23/9/2011 12:03

Now at my predicted price of 2p per share.

At a leisure park in Herts LMR have closed down 3 clubs in the last 4 weeks.

Next target...1p.

[deanroberthunt] 21/9/2011 09:33

BUST.....just await the official suspension

[bahrain2] 20/9/2011 12:33

I understand that LMR is now speeding up Jongleurs across as many of the venues as possible, as well as increasing the number of WooWoo bars. This all increases the time consumers now spend at the clubs and must lead to increased revenue.

I wonder if the decision makers of the banks spend any time at these clubs?

[bahrain2] 19/9/2011 11:05

Morning Advertiser article noted.

However, sensationalism sells newspapers as we all know, and if you look back a year, it is like we are standing still - at that time there were great worries that banking covenant tests would be failed, and that trading was going to be poor leading to a number of venues being closed.

Are we in that different a position now? Then and now, the supportive position of the banks was being stressed, and it does remain the case that the banks are keeping Luminar going currently.

It is not clear however how close or far away LMR are / were in failing their covenant tests during the year, therefore it is unclear how close they are to being able to trade within them when they are tested next month, if trading since start of September does improve? At some stage, if trading begins to improve enough, banking worries will surely dissipate? Given that LFLs are starting to look like they may be moving towards positive territory, and that trading in September appears to already be ahead of last year's, I am really unsure if a refinancing is going to be needed, especially given all the venue closures and staffing cuts. Yes, these are draconian, but fixed costs are now being cut to the bone which must aid profitability.....

[jeffian] 16/9/2011 17:54

Indeed, hot, but I also posted it because of the comment on the banks in relation to posts above about "bank support". The banks are only supporting them to the extent that they stand to recover more by keeping them trading than closing them down, but I doubt there'll be anything left for shareholders.

[hotfinance14] 16/9/2011 17:39

Desperate measures.

[bahrain2] 13/9/2011 10:38

I see the buy price has now risen to 2.9p....from 2.5p

The price has fallen in very little trade - presumably if anyone starts buying it the price will equally rally sharply........

[bahrain2] 12/9/2011 16:04

Is this going to go under 2p?

Is LMR going into administration?

Is a deal possible with creditors / HMRC?

Will the banks extend the banking facility past 27th October?

Will LMR's initiatives from now until the New Year be sufficient to offset the covenant tests due?

Can LMR trade out of this hole?

These are real questions that we need answers to - in the meantime, is it worth buying the stock at 2.5p a share?

[bahrain2] 12/9/2011 11:19

Is it still possible to trade out of this mess?

It seems to me that if trading for the Sept - Dec period is decent, then LMR will no longer be in breach of its covenants. surely that would put the whole thing on a different footing?

Also, I understand there is going to be much increased use of the premises outside of nightclub hours, with a variety of non nightclub events planned. This logically can only increase the bottom line.

The key thing is that the banks continue to support them - I can see them now extending the facility until early Jan 2012 to allow Xmas trading, and if that is all ok, then discussion about breach of banking facility would seem premature.......

[hotfinance14] 06/9/2011 14:37

Below 3p now. Next target 2p.