Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 10/11/2014 19:44

not many sold really.
I am still buying
tiger

[stewy_18] 10/11/2014 10:39

Any idea why the fall? Clumbsy seller?

[castleford tiger] 02/11/2014 17:15

They are hard to buy.

Buy the weak days and sell those strong days when the MM wants stock.
Very tightly held.
I have only a few to go to declare 3%

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 07/10/2014 17:49

Also guys don't forget there was over 800k re organisation costs in last full year accounts!!

If we get away with 200k that's another 600k to the bottom line.

That's said I expect there have been other big costs this year.

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 07/10/2014 17:39

I certainly agree we are not getting the 3 to 4 this year!!
I assume you mean year just ended?

However I expect 21/22 million in current year.

I noticed the 200k excp item................just waiting for a few options to be granted now!!

I think in these uncertain times its better to back a horse that has four legs and a jockey.
We have the orders in the bag and are almost debt free.

Tiger

[stewy_18] 07/10/2014 14:47

I agree with that principle regarding LPA and operational gearing CT, but there is no way we are getting £3-4 million over expected revenues for this year. We would have needed an "exceed expectations" statement for that and we didn't get it. It will be similar to last year (about £17-18 million). The latest brokers notes I have from Hume Capital have revenues at £17.8 million and EPS of 3.8. On that basis LPA ain't cheap. I'm hoping those figures are a little light but they did say in the trading statement :-

Subject to the outcome of the consultation, a provision for costs (estimated to be up to £0.2m) may be included in the accounts for the year ended 30 September 2014.

So PBT of £0.6 million?

Can't see 150 pence this year TBH. We are in a raging bear market for small caps and unless they come out with a stunning contract win, 150 pence will be unlikely. Just my opinion.

2016 however. That is a different story.

[envirovision] 07/10/2014 12:24

Holders will just have to suck it up till January.

[stewy_18] 07/10/2014 10:48

Last time I emailed Peter he seemed very confident that the annual order rate of £24 million would be achieved. As Tiger says that could well mean only £17 million revenues for this year and an EPS of about 6 pence. Last time I mailed him he said this was his expectation and that nothing had changed. Not realkly sure why they mention the order rate TBH, it confuses more than anything else.

It is good they have a strong overseas orders and I hope that continues.

For me it is steady as she goes. I think LPA will do very well over the next 3 years and unless something changes that is what I am looking at in terms of reviewing this investment.

[castleford tiger] 07/10/2014 10:19

Guys
I read that we have had orders to end of Sept of 18.5 million. That's somewhat different to sales.
However I disagree that we will wait until 2016 to see the rewards.

The structure of this company can mean an extra 3 or 4 million on sales can double profits from .8 million to 1.6 million.
The shares are very tightly held and I expect them to move back to the 150 area by the end of this year.
Going forward into late 2015/2016 the shares could well rocket to 500p based on my profit predictions for 2016.
That said there may well be a bid for us well before that. I hope not!!

Tiger

[envirovision] 07/10/2014 10:12

Its confident but somewhat jam tomorrow I would say stewy. I think the market is going to wake up though as you can now see how excited they are sounding about the new factory given there's cost savings, room for additional capacity. I suspect some were hoping to reap the benefits sooner perhaps explains the markets reaction do you agree?

[stewy_18] 07/10/2014 09:56

Hmm. So they have done £18.5 million until end of September. Final results around 23rd Jan. When is the close period? Anyone know? Has there been any revision updates in the broker notes? Not sure I can get too excited by this. I would have expected an "we will exceed expectations" footnote with this statement. Still, it will be interesting to see if they can break £20 million this year.

Peter Pollock commented:-

"We have set ourselves a number of major challenges to achieve and have made good progress so far. These new contracts and further investment planned at Light and Power House and our LED lighting facility should put the Group in a stronger position to exploit opportunities in the future."

Not an overly confident statement. I think we are looking at 2016 for the sweet spot. Market not sure what to make of it either. Share price all over the place today.

[envirovision] 07/10/2014 09:12

It is, it may take some time but you can see this is a company on its way towards a very rosy future.

[trav5] 07/10/2014 08:28

Stunning update.

[gucci] 26/8/2014 09:35

great looking chart too stewy

[stewy_18] 20/8/2014 12:18

So quiet here I missed the August 6th RNS:-



Our move marks an important step in what is proving to be a very busy year for us. Light and Power House provides a modern and spacious facility from which LPA Connector Systems can continue to grow and to take advantage of the exciting opportunities we are currently seeing in the marketplace

also

We will now move on to complete the reorganisation of our electro-mechanical business and commence a 50% extension to our LED lighting manufacturing facility in Normanton, West Yorkshire

I take to mean they will grow LED part of the business by 50% next year :))

Seroiusly though it sounds like they are mighty busy. Just need an "exceed expectations" trading update now and all will be rosy:)

[gucci] 20/8/2014 11:56

starting to move up nicely

[stewy_18] 18/7/2014 12:11

Nice update. Strong pipeline by the looks of it. That was certainly the impression I got from Peter's emails.

Not much to do now but wait.

Agreed the shareprice looks quite full based on the forecasts, but contract wins likely at any time. I think the spend on new carriges is likely to begin in 2015.

Long term buy and hold, IMO.

[hastings] 18/7/2014 11:10

Bit late, but sharing a few thoughts that may be of interest.

[hastings] 09/7/2014 07:01

Hi mathewawood, no they ran out of space due to a certain cycle event! If they don't run it next week, I will pop a link here.CheersH

[mathewawood] 08/7/2014 14:17

hastings - No sign of the promised update on LPA in your Cambridge News column?

[stewy_18] 30/6/2014 15:26

OK, now I'm confused. Hastings, If you have any information after speaking to the company, it would be grately appreciated. What is clear is the forecasts remain unchanged.

What is not clear is the order book for this year. It may be that it is near to £24 million, and that not all orders fall in this year.

Even when I take into account £9.5 million for Intercity express and the aerospace contacts combined, I don't get an order book figure anywhere near £24 million but perhaps I am wrong and perhaps thats what LPA have.

I hope that is what is being implied from the mails I received.

Any clarification would be great.

Again, I am in for the long run so I'm not too concerned, but it does seem like they are confident for the future.

Best

Stuart

[hastings] 27/6/2014 12:23

Thanks for the prompt update Stuart, appreciated.

[stewy_18] 27/6/2014 10:33

Got a response back from Peter Pollock. He expects no revisions to be made in the forecasts this year.

I think we will have to agree to disagree about mentioning the run rate of £24 million. He said he was not offering an expectation in mentioning that. I disagree with that completely!

Anyway there is no need to dwell on this point. It is done, and we know if is not a indication of this years revenues.

I can see the shareprice going lower here, but also I see there is scope for contract announcements at anytime. The reasons why I invested here are still in place and I'm happy to see how everything looks in 3 years time. Hopefully they will be somewhere near that £24 million by then :)

Good luck.

Best

Stuart

[hastings] 27/6/2014 09:51

Hi Stuart, yes aka pp.I tend to agree with your thoughts regarding the revenue and EPS in relation to where we are at now. But I, like you presumably, view this as a longer term play for decent returns.I am hoping to get hold of a new Broker note and hopefully speak with management.Good luck with your contacting them too.Cheers H