Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[cudmore] 30/9/2016 15:59

Topping up time!!

[redbaron10] 29/9/2016 22:35

What happened here today? Canaccord gave Anglo a buy rating and we got a 6% bounce.I know GLEN share price rose today so Anglo's lift might be off the copper division,but even so Anglo has a $10bn debt pile, so a buy rating is bold.Vote of confidence in my view though.Even the gold miners had a good day without much of a move in the gold price.'Witching' day tomorrow at the end of the quarter,so maybe funds rearranging their portfolios for the year end.No news is good news i suppose on the wage negotiations with Amcu,but the implats strike is still on.

[harry_david] 29/9/2016 15:11

Implats is currently valued at Zar 50 billion or more than 6 times Lonmin. This size gap is unwarranted so one of them is massively mispriced.

[cudmore] 28/9/2016 11:05

Up we go. Could see these take off this afternoon

[redbaron10] 28/9/2016 09:40

Just posting the last one,a sell of a quarter of a million shares just gone through.

[redbaron10] 28/9/2016 09:34

Implats refinery workers,members of the NUM,are now on strike.Lonmin and Amplats will view this dispute with interest.The AMCU as the other, bigger, miner's union no doubt will also be observing with interest.The outcome of this dispute will be the test case for the wage negotiations to either succeed or fail.Looking at the share price,the market is viewing this as a positive.The platinum price hasn't moved,and i'm not expecting it to.During the five month strike in the platinum sector,because of above ground stocks already built up,supply wasn't affected.Just have to adopt a wait and see approach.

[harry_david] 27/9/2016 13:21

I am not guessing on timing, but when it happens it will as usual take us all by surprise.

[elvisrocks] 27/9/2016 12:33

Harry David, much depends as you say on what time horizon you look at and the word "when". Short term, next 6 months down to $900, maybe lower, next 12-18 months $900-1150 range maybe a touch higher. By 2019 stock piles much depleted, by 2022-2025 big structural shortages and Lonmin will make big money, but by either 2019-2025, it could well have been taken over or gone private (or face another RI / refinance by 2019).

Depends on your horizon, at the moment I'm looking at Xmas and see a fall into the low $900s and see no big change, empirically to the 2015 12 month price chart.

[harry_david] 27/9/2016 11:43

ElvisRocks, you are obviously right on the present market but mining commodities have always moved in cycles. We have had declining production for about five years, firstly the strike and now closures. The overhang in stockpiles is being whittled away fairly rapidly and a bounce in prices is inevitable. When it occurs the jump could be a surprise as it takes a good five years to bring in a large producer giving an extended period of bumper profits.

[elvisrocks] 26/9/2016 21:22

Red baron. I have made this point before for Lonmin. What is better for Lonmin, both cash and profits? An Pt of 1060 and XR of 13.70 R14,485, where we are today) or a Pt of 900 and an XR of 15.6 = R14,040 where Lonmin was at the end of January. The answer, the net value today is better - this gives more overall profit, but is now swallowed up by rising costs. The two big unknowns that Mr Magara cannot control and is the Pt price and the XR.
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In other words, Lonmin, now nearly 12 months on from its last RI announcement, is no much better off than 12 months ago. I also understand as we get closer to Xmas, it is the tax loss selling season (think ETFs), so I'm expecting the Pt price to head back into the low $900s before too long with a STRONGER (not weaker) Rand. Not good news.

[redbaron10] 26/9/2016 18:37

Well there are always going to be geopolitical issues involved in investing in Russia,but like BP, pragmatism and common sense seems to prevail when vested interests are at stake.If you believe like me imho that being long gold and platinum will be a reasonable call going into the US presidential election, and year end, then hopefully there is limited downside risk.I don't think the US Fed will raise rates in December and dollar strength will remain muted.If the dollar remains weaker,that should help all commodity prices.Having noted principle investors/owners are putting 24m polymetal shares on sale,i've just bought the big dip in the share price this has created.The share price might go below 955p, but i'm hopeful they will be higher by year end.

[harry_david] 26/9/2016 16:43

That's gutsy, though the prospect looks good.
For me the interest is that they are more than 5 times the capitalisation with equivalent turnover to Lonmin. If Lonmin can overcome a few minor headwinds they could be up there also!

[redbaron10] 26/9/2016 11:16

Bought into polymetal int. at 955p .Reports they have a viable platinum mine sparked my interest

[redbaron10] 23/9/2016 19:13

Amen to that harry_david

[harry_david] 23/9/2016 19:02

Red Baron, the latest rise is also in hope the wage negotiations will reach a satisfactory solution. My view is that £1.85 was all negative on a wage battle now somewhat ameliorated by some encouraging reports in the last two days. Let hope they are accurate for once.

[redbaron10] 23/9/2016 18:20

Caveat emptor sh1984. Lonmin has had three rights issues in half a dozen years and a very chequered history,so invest here with your eyes wide open!!! Do your own research and have a strong stomach, because you will need it.Brokers' forecasts are what they are.If you are an investor,ask yourself why brokers have the particular forecast they do on any particular share.Ask yourself what is in it for them? They aren't giving you free,unqualified advice.There are vested interests involved in investments,so just be aware.We have seen a 10% share price rise in 2 days as a result of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates on hold.There were Q3 results on 1/8,so i suggest you look at these for a snap-shot of the company's performance and judge for yourself.Good luck,whatever.

[sh1984] 23/9/2016 16:54

Thinking of buying in here given rise in last couple of days, concerned with why the brokers forecasts are so low?

[cudmore] 22/9/2016 06:09

Still see these climbing back up towards £2.50 imho

[redbaron10] 22/9/2016 00:39

As i predicted before,the US Fed will not raise interest rates.Unfortunately Stan Fischer,the Fed deputy at Jackson Hole in August,was very hawkish and intimated a Fed hike in September.This totally derailed my gold and platinum miners because the dollar index rose on his comments,denting gold and platinum price momentum.All the gold/platinum precious metal prices should now start rising again,no thanks to Mr Fischer!! With a lower dollar,hopefully all commodities will now get a welcome boost.The US presidential election is getting closer,so this will add to market uncertainty,hopefully helping gold and pgms as investments.China seems to be holding up well,with bullish comments from Rio Tinto about forward demand,so pgm industrial demand will be a factor in price momentum.Anglo had a good day, so with luck it should be Lonmin's turn.If we can just dispose of this anchor of potential labour unrest over pay and possible strike action holding back the share price,we could see a nice move up here in the share price.Let's get back above 200p and start the grind upwards.

[harry_david] 21/9/2016 15:50

A very good recovery in precious metal prices today, led by platinum.

[harry_david] 21/9/2016 04:56

The unions have declared they are in dispute with Amplats. Amplats have offered less than Lonmin which has so far not been named.

[boodgewoodge] 20/9/2016 14:49

does any one have a clue for the rapid fall

[tsmith2] 20/9/2016 14:40

Doesn't feel right though

[harry_david] 20/9/2016 12:20

is there a reason for today's sell off?