London Scottish Bank Share Discussion Threads

[city girl] 29/10/2008 10:09

GRLZ, here we are again with selected snippets of positive elements being thrown around to paint a rosy picture. Can I remind you that I hold share in the group as a whole. I don't hold shares in their pension surplus/deficit nor do I hold shares in their deferred tax assets/liabilities these are just components of the whole and in isolation are completely meaningless.
As to what the current overall position of the group looks like the company remains tight lipped so we're all left second guessing which to be honest is pathetic. Perhaps you will enlighten us?
Left with my own research and a bit a guesswork I reckon we're in for a nasty shock when the company finally does put some figures out, as they will have too very soon.
For what its worth I forecast a frighteningly bad P&L and a much weaker balance sheet than most people here seem to be expecting. A train wreck might be another description. We'll see.

[grlz] 29/10/2008 09:40

cn/city girl - LSB didn't do itself any favours by stating in the 2008 Half Yearly report that worst case "Unsecured lending" (UCC) could cost an additional £52m - imho that was stupid as management released a guess-timate as a fact and basically trashed the sp

The UCC loans and receivables aren't that bad or not as bad as their making out nowhere near the £52m worst case.

take a look yourself:

UCC Loans & Receivables
31/04/2007 £133,799m
31/10/2007 £84,15m
31/04/2008 £70,632m
31/08/2008 £49,50m

Last reporting period they collected £69.3m not exactly a nightmare - £49m now outstanding at say 70% only makes a £15m loss not £52m!

*Robinson way is self contained and has £85m facilities

*1st and 2nd charges have not suffered significant impairments and from June 2008 LSB has ceased writing business effecting a run off - Receivables worth circa £144m

*Pension fund has a surplus of £3.2m

*£4.376m of deferred tax assets.

If LSB is run-off Regulatory Capital is no longer an issue so can be put to other use or returned.

DYOR

[city girl] 29/10/2008 08:15

GRLZ, I've done simiar calculations and the problem is that you need to make a few assumptions as the company is noticably quiet on the overall trading positiion and current state of the balance sheet.
My range of prices is 7.5p at best but most likely some way south of there depending on how bad things are. This could even be a wipeout with nothing left for shareholders.
I may as well hang in for the ride but my expectations are very low!

[m4p] 28/10/2008 21:20

who picks up the £200 mill debt?

[cyclingnut] 28/10/2008 18:52

grlz,

so if your reasoning and numbers are correct then shareholders may walk away with 10p or so per share?

[grlz] 28/10/2008 14:23

starting to push north, current share price is way below the sum of parts on break up:

CTT was looking at "unsec lending" as a quick fix for it's banking needs but LSB made it messy by only wanting to entertain a bid for the entire company, if "unsec" is offered clean from the rest of group then it's imho more attractive than taking over LSB, restructuring and taking charges - the good news is any price paid for unsec is pure profit as LSB have taken impairment charges against most of the book value.

RW - the debt collecting business should gain a good price from any bidder given it's currently a hot sector and the business has been recently re-financed by a collection of banks to the tune of £85m

break-up value £30m less close-outs of say £10m leaves £20m of value imho

Mathon, Close or Hilton Ventures will probably end up bidding for the pieces

DYOR

[cyclingnut] 28/10/2008 09:31

dead cat bounce....

[city girl] 27/10/2008 09:49

What on earth are the directors up to? Hi guys...anybody there.....?

Must be on holiday again or asleep in the board room after a good lunch.

Shouldn't they be making some sort of statement to shareholders?

All we're left with is a rumour leaked to that well known organ of financial news the ....er....Sunday Express! The word pathetic doesn't come close!

Train wreck imminent I think.

[m4p] 25/10/2008 14:23

cn

sorry to cause offence mate

just wondered how bad it was for you

[meanm] 25/10/2008 09:57

Stop being so melodramatic!

Hardly any sales and the MM's are playing with the s.p., which at this time they can easily get away with.

My thoughts are that if the date passes without a deal, then the MM's will floor the s.p.. but it is far from curtains for LSB.

I think one or two of you would be aswell ending it. lol

[cyclingnut] 25/10/2008 09:40

why does it matter...that is akin to asking someone in intensive care who is fighting for life and riddled with stab wounds..."How many stab wounds mate...go on...how many?"

The recession will only get worse and worse...it has not even begun to filter through yet...we have seen the banks almost collapse...next it will be airlines and retailers...

[m4p] 25/10/2008 00:16

sorry CN

I have never seen anything like the last 12 months ever

Go on how much

[cyclingnut] 24/10/2008 21:54

enough so that I will need to look at either an IVA or bankruptcy

[m4p] 24/10/2008 19:00

how much have u lost CN?

Where's ole mean gone?

[m4p] 24/10/2008 18:15

Well ole MeanM

What occurred here?

[city girl] 24/10/2008 17:01

Down to 2.78p. This has to be curtains. Will the last one out please turn the lights off......

[city girl] 24/10/2008 14:19

Down to a paltry 3.5p. Has bad news leaked out?

Maybe this is the start of the end game for LSB?

[m4p] 23/10/2008 20:58

I fully expect this to tank if the 31st passes with no positive update

anyone else have a view?

[m4p] 22/10/2008 17:49

CN

look at the spread !

"cheer up for goodness sake"

MeanM tell him

[cyclingnut] 22/10/2008 11:50

er....healthy volumes today eh!

[cyclingnut] 21/10/2008 16:01

bets that it finishes down again?

[city girl] 21/10/2008 15:42

Let's all hope there IS some announcement from them soon, good or bad. I reckon they've all gone to sleep dreaming of retention bonuses for a job well done.