London & Associated Prop... Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 07/6/2015 09:48

I've tried my best to analyse the results but they are very difficult to interpret. 2014 results are definitely impacted by the debt restructuring half way through the year, so we will have to await until 2015 to get a cleaner set or numbers.

The debt restructuring saves £1m a year in interest cost and reduces the loan cost by 2%. The next issue is paying off the expensive debentures which they have started to tackle. So they basically have a £45m facility at 5.5% and £13.5m of expensive debentures. LTV is not quoted but looks to be about 55% or so.

The P&L account has also been impacted by vacant shops at Sheffield which are under offer. This will continue to impact 2015 results but should help the valuation in 2015 as they are close to being finalised. Impact of this was a good £0.5m/annum or so.

So direct property income and asset management income is about £7m. Expect £7.5m or so in 2015.

Direct property costs were £1.5m but maybe closer to £1m recurring going forward once the Sheffield issue is resolved.

Overheads is difficult - suspect these were higher in 2014 due to the loan restructuring; guess at £4m or so recurring which is closer to the 2013 level + a bit.

Finance costs are about £3.5m. £2m on the new loan and £1.5m or so on the costly debentures.

So, I think there will still be about an c£1m loss on the income statement in 2015, but this could be reversed by swap movements / gains on joint venture properties.

Indeed, it does look like they could do quite well selling some of the JV properties and this is flagged in the annual report.

Anyway, I've decided to keep faith with them until better times. It does look like the legacy issues are improving. There could be some good news on asset management initiatives or joint ventures as well.

Real question is how much is Brixton Market going to be worth - they were worth about £20m. Looks like there are a couple of positive developments close by which will further improve the value of these assets.

Sheffield looks encouraging as well. West Bromwich needs some work.

Finally, the portfolio was revalued downwards by £6m in 2014 which is really bad. I suspect that a large proportion of this is due to the Republic store. This should bounce back in 2015 and so I would hope NAV is closer to 60p by the end of 2015 supported by Sheffield problems being sorted and Brixton Market going from strength to strength.

Anyway, hope to see this back at 50p+ at some time in the next 12 months. Will sell at that point as management remuneration is too high.

Of course, missed the obvious point - they could distribute their shares in Bisichi to simplify things. Pretty obvious really and that would give shareholders a better return in 2015. Would also keep them control of Bisichi. Depends on the personal tax implications of the Heller family though.

[topvest] 29/5/2015 17:24

Well I think 2014 was worse than they expected. I'm going to hold my nerve here and hope for better numbers in 2015 along with a real dividend. Will study the accounts in more detail when they arrive.

[jbarcroftr] 29/5/2015 15:29

Has the management explained the benefit to shareholders of owning 41% of Bishishi?
I see that the final dividend of 3p paid by Bishishi has not been passed on in the paltry final dividend
Is this the norm?

[coolen] 26/5/2015 21:46

From the detailed accounts, what a nightmare having to comply with this mountain of red tape.

Credit to the office clerks who had to compile this lot.

[topvest] 26/5/2015 20:23

Another loss, 25% increase in nominal dividend which is rubbish, reduction in NAV. This has really performed very badly indeed. No doubt excess director remuneration when we get the annual report through. At least it's on a small discount. At least the forward outlook is better now that all the clean-up exercise has gone through the books.

[bisiboy] 02/5/2015 18:25

interesting though that dragon retail has not see any increase in NAV for around
4 years unless i am reading things wrongly.
i wonder whether there is another layer of fees being taken from this.

[topvest] 01/5/2015 19:48

Yes, at least that's good news. They have well and truly screwed up on the accounts. BDO audit Bisichi but Grant Thornton the SA company. Not sure how BDO manage that if they don't audit most of the group. Now it's all got to be consolidated into LAS - what complexity. Distribute the Bisichi shares and stop messing about!

[jbarcroftr] 01/5/2015 09:55

Well at least Bisichi is performing well

[topvest] 17/4/2015 08:23

They have lost their experienced and long serving FD - good start for the new one...he could have spoken to his auditors earlier!

[ntv] 16/4/2015 20:21

agree tv
the new financial director and the rest of the board have not bothered to read all the accounting rules. that is what happens when you only work part time or spend to much time on the golf course!!

[topvest] 16/4/2015 08:05

Well suspended for 6 weeks or so now. Great!
The reason stacks up but they should have identified this as a problem months back.
Anyway, medium term may be good news. Might spur them into distributing the Bisichi Mining shares to holders as they should have done long ago. Consolidating Bisichi will just make the accounts and business even more difficult to follow.

[bisiboy] 03/4/2015 19:45

topvest-the point is they dont need to clean up their act because i dont think they care about their share price if they did they would.

[jbarcroftr] 30/3/2015 19:14

Well I have bought a modest stake
Compared to buying retail investments direct- stamp duty/ fees/ and almost always at or near asset value
Not to mention illiquidity property companies seem attractive
The next results should show the benefits of reduced interest rates

[topvest] 30/3/2015 18:47

Yes the directors do need to clean up their act here. It will be valued as a private company until they change their approach.

[jbarcroftr] 29/3/2015 20:42

I take your point
But at the end of the day the discount to assets must narrow

[bisiboy] 29/3/2015 18:27

i am expecting results to be good failing anything unexpected.
should be a good opportunity to pay big bonuses to the directors ans perhaps loans for a new car the other one must be about a year old now!

[jbarcroftr] 25/3/2015 11:16

Results in about a month.
Should be good
LAS look very undervalued to me
Any contrary views?
Only thing I don't like is the mining subsiduary

[coolen] 23/12/2014 21:34

Rules have changed: no longer any requirement for an IMS if that is what you are awaiting.

[topvest] 23/12/2014 20:39

Property companies quite often try and complete a purchase / sale before the end of December and so maybe that is the reason for holding on to an announcement. Just speculating, but could be the case. Otherwise, things should have gone pretty well for them with increased valuations since the last results an almost certainty, at least pre-swap movements.

[jbarcroftr] 23/12/2014 20:15

Experience shows that delayed statements are rarely good news
But there seems little here that is not well known
Most importantly interest rates are under control
So maybe foolishly I believe the delay will prove to be positive

[topvest] 23/12/2014 19:45

It's only an interim management statement. They may have delayed it if something is going through. I'm certainly hoping for better times here.

[bisiboy] 23/12/2014 17:04

late results are seldom good.

[jbarcroftr] 11/12/2014 16:55

Reread my notes
It was due Nov 17
Can't take it as anything but good( trying to finalise a deal)
At 40% discount to net assets seems cheap to me
Will be putting my money where my mouth is.

[jbarcroftr] 11/12/2014 16:36

Aren't we due an interim management statement
From the outside with finance costs under control and a generally improving market I woud have thought it might be quite encouraging

[skyship] 23/8/2014 15:34

Yes, Simon Thompson returning yet again to a failing tip!

As on every other occasion, if you're a holder - Sell into the temporary rise...